The late-September scramble of National League teams has finally ended, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers beating out the New York Mets for the final two playoff spots.
The Phillies finished off September scorching hot, winning 13 of their final 16 games to once again overcome the Mets and take the NL East, including a four game sweep of the Brewers in Citizens Bank Park.
Part of the late season surge was due to their offense, which pounded out 5.38 runs per game down the stretch. The Phils also held their opponents to three runs or fewer 12 different times.
The Brew Crew, however, needed every single part of the 162-game schedule to lock-up a spot in October.
Powered by the efforts of second-year star Ryan Braun and rental-ace CC Sabathia, the Brewers recovered from a dreadful start to September, in which they went 3-12 in their first 15 games of the month, eventually finishing off the season winning six of their final seven games.
Both of these teams rely on streaky offenses and some form of suspect pitching.
The Phils will likely throw out Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer for their playoff rotation.
Hamels is clearly the ace of the staff, leading the rotation in innings pitched (227.1), strikeouts (196), ERA (3.09), and BAA (.227). The Phils second option, Brett Myers, was arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball after he was recalled from a stint with Triple-A affiliate Lehigh Valley.
In a stretch from July 29-September 19, Myers lost just one start, winning seven times in 11 starts. He had an ERA of 1.95 during that stretch of July and August. He also posted a BAA of .210.
Veteran Jamie Moyer continued to defy odds, winning 16 games for the Phillies, which led the staff. He also posted a 3.71 ERA, and was particularly effective against young lineups, such as Arizona, Florida, Washington, and San Diego. Moyer also threw 196.1 innings this season.
The Brewers will undoubtedly choose a rotation consisting of Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, and Yovani Gallardo.
Sheets has had some slight health issues lately, and from what the Milwaukee Journal- Sentinel has reported, will likely be left off the NLDS roster due to right elbow discomfort.
Without Sheets, the Brewers will likely choose Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, or possibly Manny Parra to fill out the final spot in their rotation.
Sabathia has been electric since his trade to the Brewers, posting an 11-2 record, pitching 130.2 innings in 17 starts, including seven complete games and three shutouts, while posting a 1.65 ERA and holding hitters to a .222 average.
That being said, Sabathia struggled mightily in the postseason last year with the Cleveland Indians. In three starts, he never pitched more than six innings, and allowed at least three runs each start. Sabathia struggled with his control as evidenced by 13 walks in 15.1 innings, all while posting an 8.80 ERA.
Gallardo was supposed to be the Brewers' number-two starter behind Sheets this season, until he tore a ligament in his knee. In the four starts this year, he has posted a 1.88 ERA in 24 IP, surrendering just five runs, three HR, while walking eight and striking out 20.
The Brewers will most likely go with Dave Bush in the final spot, since he is superior to Jeff Suppan in every statistical category, and due to the inconsistencies of young Manny Parra.
10 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Rory Davis 9 months ago
Scott-
Great column. I was looking for a series preview with the brewers/phillies.
I like your analysis, and agree 100% with your prediction. I think it will boil down to the Brewers faulty bullpen. The Phillies have arguably the best 'pen in all of the playoffs (A.L. included). I do agree that the loss of Sheets will be very costly for the Brewers. I look forward to seeing how your prediction plays out.
Keep up the good writing!
Edit Comment Cancel
Scott Malone 9 months ago
Rory,
Thanks for the read and comment.
I do believe it will be a mix of the Brewers' pen, and the fact that Jamie Moyer will probably pitch very well, which will surprise a lot of people, against this impatient Brewers' lineup.
I do have to say that the Phils have one great 'pen, which I still cannot believe that they do. Coming into spring training, it was impossible to predict that the Phils would spontaneously have a good bullpen (finally) after the years of Jose Mesa, Antonio Alfonseca, etc. But I still maintain that the Angels have the best 'pen in baseball, especially now that they will be moving Garland back there and have their called up talent in there too.
Edit Comment Cancel
Dave Mulhern 9 months ago
Good preview, a lot more thoroughly researched than most articles that go up here. Sheets' injury is huge and, though you never root for those things, it has me--along with many other Phils fans to be sure--breathing a sigh of relief that we don't have to go up against him and Sabbathia.
Also, all I remember about the Rockies last year was that it seemed like every one of their best pitchers (starter and reliever) was left-handed, which resulted in the Phillies two best hitters, Utley and Howard, looking absolutely silly for three games and the rest of the team floundering around them, lost without the production from the middle of the lineup. At least this year they'll see some right-handers from the Brewers, and not necessarily many good ones.
Edit Comment Cancel
Scott Malone 9 months ago
Thanks Dave.
I agree, the fact that the Brewers don't have Sheets will be one of the three reasons they lose the series, along with their shaky 'pen and their impatient lineup. Though I must admit, I'm right there with you on that great sigh of relief. Plus, besides Sabathia and Gallardo, the Brewers lack the overall rotation depth that they had with Sheets, so we will see either Bush or Suppan instead.
I too remember that series all too well, as I would get home just in time for the start of the game only to see our lineup flailing while trying to hit Jeff Francis' curveball. Sabathia will still be a tough match-up, especially at the rate at which Ryan Howard falls behind 0-2, so we should expect to see plenty of CC's curveball low and away. The good news is, unless the Brewers start him on 3 days rest (for the 4th time in a row I heard), we will not face him till game two, though a duel between he and Hamels would be great to watch.
Thanks for the read and comment.
Edit Comment Cancel
Bryn Swartz 9 months ago
You know what's funny? On ESPN, nine out of ten experts picked Philly to win in four games (the other one picked 5 games). You picked Philly to win in four games. I pick Philly to win in four games. And I asked 3 other people and they all pick Philly to win in four games. I find that fascinating.
I think that the Brewers will do what the 2007 Phillies did...we were so happy to reach the playoffs that we just died out. This year our team is hungry. We're hot. And we have been there before. I realize that this is probably an exaggeration, but if the Brewers win, they will have recorded one of the greatest upsets in baseball history.
I wouldn't even be too surprised if we beat CC.
Edit Comment Cancel
Scott Malone 9 months ago
Bryn,
I think the consensus pick is that the Brewers will win CC's start, since that is the one area that the Brwers really outclass the Phils. I also think that the people at ESPN think it will be a Phils win is just because of how hot they have been lately, and without weighing the fact that the Brewers have a young and impatient lineup.
I think that the Brewers will flop due to weakness in several areas, not overall joy of being in the playoffs. The loss of Sheets is huge, and combining that with their lack of overall offensive balance and a good 'pen will ultimately be their downfall.
I have to agree with you that the Phils look hungry this year, especially down the stretch. The day off that the starters had on sunday will also be big, just allowing them to recuperate and ice any sore spots.
I wouldn't call it one of the greatest upsets in baseball history, but it would be a true shock to the baseball world.
My prediction for CC is as follows: CG, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K and getting a W. I only say this due to the way that the Brewers just keep him out there and he'll be coming off full rest for once.
Thanks for the read and comment.
Edit Comment Cancel
Anthony Elias 9 months ago
The Phillies have a chance to win the first three games of this series despite CC pitching Game 2. I think that the Phillies might be able to muster 2 runs of of him, probably courtesy of a long ball from Howard or something, and Brett Myers will be able to pitch a CG shutout. Hopefully this can play out, and the Phillies can sweep this series. But being completely realistic, I'll take the Phils in 4 as well.
Edit Comment Cancel
Scott Malone 9 months ago
Anthony, you're right that the Phils have a chance to win in three. The only chance would be if CC shows what he did last postseason and not what he was showing in his half season in the NL, and if Brett Myers can go back to the form he was in for July and August.
Myers could breakout in Game Two, if anything just because he throws his curveball a lot and the Brewers don't have the most patient of lineups. I still believe that CC will be very good in game two, despite pitching on short rest again.
If CC is CC, and Myers is his reinvented self, it will be one heck of a game to watch.
Edit Comment Cancel
Shay Roddy 9 months ago
Good Column. I will go out on a limb and say whoever wins game one wins the series.
Edit Comment Cancel
Scott Malone 9 months ago
Thanks Shay.
I would say that, though the back end of the Brewers' rotation is rocky, and could end up causing problems for them even if they win the first two. Bush and Suppan do not look like the best options, and that is where Ben Sheets' presence will truly be missed.
I do think that game one will have a chance to be a great match-up between Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo.
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.