2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 74: Will Phillies' Shane Victorino Bounce Back?

Nick KappelAnalyst IIIMarch 9, 2011

PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 23:  Shane Victorino #8 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a single in the eighth against the San Francisco Giants in Game Six of the NLCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park on October 23, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Shane Victorino posted a career-high 18 HRs in 2010, but his career-low .259 batting average is what’s scaring away fantasy managers this season. His current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 138, a far cry from where his three-year averages (see below) indicate he should be.

Victorino’s .273 BABIP last season suggests some poor luck, though his career-high fly-ball percentage (37.6 percent, career 35.1 percent) may indicate a slight change in his swing, not his luck. Fortunately, his batted ball rates weren’t too far off the norm, so a bounce-back performance in 2011 is within reason.

The Flyin’ Hawaiian’s 2011 value will rely heavily on his spot in the Phillies’ lineup. While over half his 2010 at-bats came in the leadoff spot, the switch-hitter is currently slated to bat fifth behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

Of course, if Utley’s knee injury shelves him for any significant amount of time, that could change. If not, Jimmy Rollins' struggles in recent seasons are likely to keep the Phillies' lineup a fluid situation.

For now, I’ll project Victorino as the No. 5 hitter. This will limit his run-scoring opportunities but should lead to a small spike in RBI. He’s likely to steal 25 to 35 steals, either way.

Victorino leads the third-tier of outfielders with unique 20/30 potential and won’t hurt your team’s batting average.

 PARHRRBISBAVG
2010 stats64884186934.259
3-year average65696146332.281
2011 FBI Forecast65085158030.280

 

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