NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview

AT FIRST GLANCE...there are games that always look 'Tasty' ATS in many publication as a 'Bullet' trend only to 'trap' upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real 'ADVANTAGE' against the 'Trend'.

Having seen the column explode in popularity in 2007, in 2008, The Director will draw even greater clarity by identifying the key trends as either 'First Look' or 'King Trends', and documenting the record the ADVANTAGE plays ATS.

FIRST LOOK

If there was ever a matchup that was 'checkered' by history it is the NY Giants' arrival in Dallas where up until 2007, Coughlin was 6-0 ATS versus Parcells' DALLAS COWBOYS; 1-0 ATS in the playoffs. Inheriting a losing record from Parcells in the playoffs not only did Phillips go 2-0 ATS versus the Giants in 2007, but in doing so averaged 36 points in outscoring Big Blue by over 10 points per game. Having lost by an average of 4 points in the last four games of the year on only 15 points per game, Phillips will work to 'king' the Giants and keep his winning run alive.

KING TRENDS

Having watched the collapse of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday Night, the matchup in New England takes on a whole new light. As we did in Seattle, the checkered past of 2005 returns where Del Rio's motivation for abandoning Leftwich may just have began. For it was here that Leftwich's 179 passing yards, and anything but a rushing attack, left the Jaguars outscored by 25 points. The second loss by 14 or more points in New England. Although the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS closed the season 0-3 ATS, the Patriots, who enter 3-0 ATS in their last three first round playoff matchups by outscoring opponents by over 20 points per game, 3-0 ATS by some accounts, 2-0-1 by other accounts, during Del Rio's tenure, face the challenge of their largest spread as a Favorite since Belichick's arrival. Moss' time in the sun has arrived.

ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS

 

We all remember back in 2004 when Dungy played possum with the Broncos, losing by 19 in Week 17 only to dominate them at Home in the playoffs. That same question remains as the San Diego Chargers, who have owned the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS going 2-0 ATS under Schottenheimer's reign, and now 1-0 ATS under Turner after the big week 10 upset as Sprole's legs won the duel with Manning's 328 passing yards during the regular season arrive in Indianapolis for the playoffs. The one thing that has remained constant, and proved troubling for Dungy, has been the Chargers 23+ points per game. Unable to cover the 7 point spread in the Colts' only SU victory versus the Chargers, Dungy will have trouble with the Chargers' checkered success; the Chargers 6-1 ATS versus the AFC South over the last three years.

ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA HYPE

Checkered is definitely the word for the matchup in Green Bay where the GREEN BAY PACKERS enter 2-0 ATS at Home and 0-1 ATS in Seattle during the Regular Season versus the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks 3-0 ATS when playing on Saturday, and 4-0 ATS in January over the last three seasons. Particularly interesting given that 'history repeated itself' in the Seattle victory over the Redskins last week, and the Packers enter 0-1 record ATS in the playoffs versus the Seahawks dating back to 2003; the Packers failing to cover the 7.5 spread although they out gunned the Seahawks 397 to 340 total offensive yards on Driver's back. Key to keep in mind as you read through the numbers is that the 2005 Packers victory here was over a Seahawks team that at 13-3 was commanded by Wallace, not Hasselbeck. What is clear in all these matchups is that a limited rushing attack has always forced the Seahawks to the air as the Packers move with a balanced attack. Outside of the 2003 regular season blow out, two of the Packers victories have come by less than 7 points. Thus, taking the Seahawks ADVANTAGE will be a very tough assignment in this one.


© M.O. Productions 1.11.07

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