I have never written for Bleacher Report before and I thought I would start with the topic that interests me the most as the season progresses. The Rookies.
One thing I have noticed is that its rare when a No. 1 pick gets the Rookie of the Year (RotY). It has only happened eight times in the last 20 years and twice in the last 10. One being LeBron James (and whilst not unworthy, he and Carmelo Anthony had similar stats—bar assists—but the Nuggets made the play-offs. Oh and so did the Heat with a guy called Dwyane Wade!)
The other was the joint winners in Brand and Stevie Franchise, Brand being the top pick.
Now that might be a anomaly but it does makes me ponder on this and last years top picks, Derrick Rose and Greg Oden.
I don't see Rose winning the honour as the Bulls, in my opinion, will manage his minutes and he might not even start as the Bulls logjam at guard might be easiest resolved by bringing the rookie off the bench. This would settle the veterans and take the pressure off Rose who has still to learn the most difficult position in the game.
A starting unit of Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, Luol Deng, Drew Gooden and Joakhim Noah or even Aaron Gray, isn't beyond belief and the bench of Rose, Ben Gordon (assuming he's there), Tyrus Thomas, Andres Nocioni and Thabo Sefolosha isn't too shabby.
There is also the other matter of the only other point taken No. 1 in the last ten years— Allen Iverson!. He posted 23.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 7.5 apgin 76 games with 40.1 mpg in his rookie year. I could even throw in Stevie Francis, his rookie stats were 18 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 6.6 apgin 77 games with 36 min played. I realistically don't see Rose getting near those stats this year.
Oden is a different in a few ways, firstly he wont be the best player on the Blazers. Plus this team has ambitions, the Blazers surprised me last year by being so good. Last year they were 9 games from a play-off spot, Toronto had the same record and finished sixth in the east.
Oden won't play the kind of minutes he would need to win the award. And then there's that knee to think about. In the rookie evaluation last year Oden outperformed Durant in athletic ability, and the Blazers will need that to be intact if Oden is to be a factor.
NBADraft.net had Oden compared with David Robinson, but the admirals rookie stats were 24.3 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 3.8 bpg in 81 starts playing 36 mpg. I cant even imagine Ogden coming close to those stats, and since he isn't even the best player on the Blazers, they don't need him to.
So lets look at the stats of the last two big men RotY winners.
3 comments Last one added 6 months ago — Leave a Comment
Charles Follymacher 9 months ago
Well-reasoned stuff, but I think you've been too dismissive of Beasley and Love (and not even a word on Bayless?!). Beasley may be on a bit of a leash to begin the season, but he'll get the minutes to compete for the title. Love's proven to be a deceptively good scorer, but you're right the jury's still out on whether his waddle will allow him to compete night-in-night out with the league's high flyers.
Watson's no all-star, but he's a consumate point guard. Unless you're an incredible freak like CP, it's a position that normally takes quite a long time to master. Westbrook is clearly not a natural point guard -- he's not even as good as "Mighty Mouse" Stoudamire was as a rook -- and Oklahoma is not Miami-desperate for a starter at that position. Watson will do quite nicely this season as Westbrook is brought along. Barring a Watson injury, he probably won't get ROY-level minutes.
I'm afraid i'm going with the conventional "wisdom" on this: Beasley in 2009
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J. Lamar Ward 9 months ago
Great post,
Here's my rookie year projections
Greg Oden
13 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 bpg
OJ Mayo
15 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg
Jerryd Bayless
13 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
Derrick Rose
11 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg
Russell Westbrook
12 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg
Eric Gordon
7 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
Kevin Love
13 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 apg
And my 2008-2009 NBA Rookie of the Year is:
Michael Beasley
18 ppg, 11 rpg, 1 bpg
(All the players i named above are the rookies that i feel should be considered for the award)
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Charles Follymacher 6 months ago
Looks like your prediction is turning out pretty well so far -- kudos! We're one-third of the way through and it doesn't look like Mayo's going to fade. Beasley, on the other hand, has had to digest a couple, three helpings of humble pie. He'll turn out well all the same though.
"Lastly I'm going to make a second round prediction, I think Richard Hendrix will be a stud."
I hope I'm not jinxing things by doing the reverse and actually ageeing with you here, but I smell major potential off this guy. Now he got early release so we can hope he'll get to show his stuff for real in the next couple weeks.
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