With the way the Baseball Hall of Fame vote went yesterday, it is obvious that the this is a very exclusive club.
Just ask Jim Rice, who dominated the American League during his career.
When you watch today's major leaguers, it is natural to look at one of your favorite superstars and say that he will one day join the greats in Cooperstown.
My advice to you is that you may want to curb your enthusiasim.
Here's a look at which of today's legends will be enshrined forever, and which will join the likes of Jack Morris and Andre Dawson on the outside looking in.
NO DOUBT HALL OF FAMERS
Greg Maddux
The Mad Dog is arguably the greatest pitcher of this generation. Without the 100 MPH heater he was still able to win 347 games. With a lot still left in the tank, he could be at 400 when all is said and done.
Tom Glavine
Like his teammate Maddux, Glavine got it done with guile and the ability to avoid injury. He finally got win number 300 last year and will most likely retire after a one year stint with Atlanta in 2008.
John Smoltz
The third and final Brave starter who will make it also has three seasons as a dominant closer to go along with his 200 wins as a starter. With his 3.11 ERA last year, Smoltz appears to have the most left out of the three.
Pedro Martinez
The three time Cy Young winner was the nastiest pitcher in baseball during the late 90's. He will not finish anywhere close to 300 wins due to injuries but is third all time in win percentage.
Randy Johnson
One of the tallest players in baseball will leave some even bigger numbers behind him. Johnson once won four straight Cy Young awards and could be the last pitcher to win 300 games.
Mariano Rivera
The Yankee legend is arguably the greatest closer of all-time and is one of the main reasons the Yankees were able to win so many titles. In an era in which the closer was so important, Rivera was the best.
Trevor Hoffman
The greatest closer in NL history has been the face of the Padres franchise for over a decade. Although he has struggled in big spots, his career record for saves are enough to get him in.
Chipper Jones
This may spark some debate, but Chipper is a Hall of Famer. He was the Braves best hitter when they dominated the National League in the 1990's. Jones should finish with close to 500 HR and a .300 AVG but should be in Cooperstown regardless.
Derek Jeter
A lot of people have argued that Jeter is just the product of a good team, but that's a terrible argument. The heart and soul of the Yankee dynasty will reach 3,000 hits and currently has a .317 career AVG.
Ken Griffey Jr.
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10 months ago
Nice work here David. I pretty much agree with all of your analysis, with a few exceptions:
1) I'd put Todd Helton as a shoe in, or damn close to it. He's had an OBP of over .400 (most of the time well over) in eight straight seasons, and from 99' to 04' had six consecutive seasons with 100 or more runs, 30 or more home runs, 100 or more RBIs, and a .320 or better batting average. That's Frank Thomas like consistency.
He may play in Coors Field, but that doesn't change the fact that he has been one of the most consistent hitters of our generation (rapidly declining now, unfortunately...)
2) Seems to me that if you put Ozzie Smith in the Hall of Fame, you'd have to put Omar Vizquel in. They are virtually the same player when you get right down to it (two of the most amazing defensive players at the most reputable defensive position, excellent base runners, marginal hitters).
3) Alfonso Soriano has quite a ways to go before he's compared to Andre Dawson/considered a borderline Hall of Famer. He's surely not as sound as Dawson defensively, and when you compare his offensive numbers to his peers, Dawson is in fact more impressive.
Awesome break down overall—what is sad is that in all likelihood, some of your "No Doubt Hall of Famers" will somehow end up not making it.
I mean, do you honestly think that people didn't consider Jim Rice in that category when he retired? Who'd have thought!?!
from 10 months ago
comparing VIzquel to Ozzie is like comparing Eddie Murray and lou Gherig, both were the dominant 1st basemen of their day, this does not mean that one is a as good as the other. Vizquel is the best defensive shorstop of his era. Ozzie is The dominant defensive player in baseball history. Vizquel is more similar to...Dave Concepcion, or maybe Luis Aparicio without as much speed.
10 months ago
This list is pretty good.
I don't think Ortiz will be a hall of famer. He hasn't been good enough long enough. You're projecting with him. He's not is good shape. I think he'll break down.
Soriano is a whiffer, no way he makes it. Plus he doesn't have a natural position.
Schilling is borderline. He dosen't have enough wins. He may make it on his Ks, though
Even if they all deserve it, I don't see them putting all those Braves in the HOF....
10 months ago
Great article! As a Yankee fan, I love Soriano...however, during his tenure in New York, he swung at every pitch that came his way! Ortiz shouldn't make it. He might been a phenomenal hitter, but he is a DH and is not a decent first baseman. Shilling shouldn't really make it either, but with more K's, he gets closer!
10 months ago
Uh yeah, do me a favor and get JEFF KENT the fuck outta the fuck... his numbers are good, but he played in the Juice Era so no voter in ten years is gonna even shake his cock after NOT giving a tiny squirt of piss about Jeff "The GrandDaddy of All Dicksuckers" Kent
Jeff Kent?? The article overall isnt terrible, but instead of adding Jeff Kent as an obvious hall of famer you should just go back to your bread and butter: Sneaking into ventilation systems so you can watch fat truckers take stinky dumps
from 10 months ago
I think Barry Bonds signed in with an alias and commented !!!
10 months ago
Didn't you know that 500 HR's is basically meaningless anymore? It certainly isn't a free pass into the Hall. Not only is Jim Thome NOT a "no doubt" Hall of Famer - he WON'T make it in.
Period.
from 10 months ago
500 HR is not automatic, nor should it be. While Jim Thome may not make it, he will probably retire with around 600, and forgetting the possibility of steroid controversy, and assuming he plays 2-3 more years, he will absolutely deserve it. He has been a dominant player compared to his own ERA, not just to the rest of baseball history.
10 months ago
Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith are virtually the same player? One of them is the best defensive baseball player of all-time, and the other one isn't.
Other than that...
10 months ago
TIM HUDSON??!!
10 months ago
Hate to break it to you, dude - but Chipper Jones is NOT going to the hall of fame...forget being a no-doubter - he AIN'T going.
10 months ago
I'm glad to see a lot of comments on the article. Let me address a few points that were made:
1) Jeff Kent- Thank you for your intelligent comments on Kent. You made a very solid argument. Your reading and writing skills are something I wish I had.
2) Jim Thome- Everyone says that 500 HR is not what it used to be, but I'm willing to assume Thome gets in until I actually see some one who hit 500 HR w/o steroids denied from the hall.
3) Tim Hudson- Obviously you have not taken a look at Hudson's stats which are: 135-70 3.51 ERA 1287 K. The numbers are very close to Tom Glavine's after 9 seasons which is where Hudson is at. I don't think it a stretch to say that Hudson, who been virtually healthy most of his career, has a shot at 300 wins.
4) Chipper Jones- The Brave is some one I doubt will be first ballot, but will definitely get in after a few times on the ballot. He has good to great all-around numbers and has always been one of the most feared hitters in the NL. However, I am a Mets fan, so I probably have seen more of his good moments than most people. Schilling and Chipper are clearly the most debatable on my list.
10 months ago
TODD HELTON,
HIS CAREER NUMBERS ARE UNBELIEVABLE.HE IS PROBABLY THE MOST DISCIPLINED HITTER
IN THE GAME TODAY. (COORS FIELD) IS HE THE ONLY PLAYER TO HAVE PLAYED THERE?
LOOK AT HIS CAREER AVG .332 HIS CAREER ON BASE % .430 HIS CAREER SLUGGING % .590
WOW............................................
10 months ago
Jim Rice dominated the AL during his career? LOL!!!!!!!!
He'll be one of the worst elected players ever if he gets in. He had an extremely short an unimpressive peak - just six seasons of OPS+ of 130 or better - and he was a mediocre hitter outside of Fenway, hitting .277/.330/.459 on the road. That's not Hall of Fame material; that's Dante Bichette.
10 months ago
Dante my ass. He did not play in a steroid hitters era aided by a launchung pad Coors. (dont try comparing coors to fenway) nor did Dante lead the league in just about every offensive category over a 10 year period.(hr rbi total bases slugging hits multi hit games etc.etc.etc. Rice even led in assist for god's sake.
As for the article. Thome no way. Trevor Hoffman ( always comes up small when it mattered) no.Kent I hope not. Papi will get in after a couple more good years.(comes up big in big games )
9 months ago
Mariano Rivera will be named on the first ballot by a record pecentage. I look to see him break the 99% region or at least get very close to it. As for Billy Wagner; he is somewhat of a debate. While he does have the second lowest ERA among closers with at least 300 saves (Mariano Rivera), his performance in big spots is not exactly impressive. As for Hoffman, he may the most consistant closer, dare I say, EVER. Yes even more consistant than Rivera. Even though he has only one season in which his ERA was lower than 2.00, he has saved at least 30 games more times in his career than any other reliever in baseball history. If he gets the Lee Smith treatment, I will be pissed.
8 months ago
I'm a big White Sox fan but don't believe that Frank Thomas is a Hall of Famer. He's got similar stats to Fred McGriff (Thomas was more dominating though) and Jeff Bagwell. I hope he gets in but it's a real, real stretch!
4 months ago
Jeter is not a hall of famer. His career numbers per season:
YEARS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
11.87 162 655 121 207 34 5 17 82 66 112 23 6 .316 .386 .459 .845
are average. He does not filed the position well. The argument for Jeter that is so frequently heard is that he is clutch in the playoffs and has won the rings. If you want to use that argument when are we inducting Paul O'neill, he has the same credentials.
Here are O'Neill's career stats:
YEARS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
12.67 162 577 82 166 36 2 22 100 70 92 11 6 .288 .363 .470 .833
And here are the postseason numbers:
O'Neill: Avg OBP SLG OPS
.302 .358 .458 .817
Jeter:
.308 .373 .473 .845
I rest my case
from 3 months ago
Your case is pretty dumb. According to your own stats, per 162 games Jeter has more runs (121 to 82) and hits (207 to 166) with better rate stats (a terrific .316 BA and .386 OBP). O'neill had slightly better power playing most of his career as an outfielder, which Jeter makes up for by playing shortstop. I don't like the hero worship that Jeter gets from the press, but he is a great player.
This is a really good article.
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