A brief run-down of current odds for the four opening round match ups. The numbers given are a rough average for discussion purposes only, but they are pulled from the best respected odds sources in the business, including but not limited to—BetUs, Bodog, Pinnacle and The Greek. The only sure bet is that this Grand Prix is the best thing to happen to MMA in a long time.
Here we go....
Current odds stand at a rough average of -400 for Emelianenko. Bets to win on Silva are fairly consistent across the board. Your average $100 bet delivering between $300 and $325 currently.
Of all the first round matches, bets on Fedor are the most inconsistent. There's a wide range of odds on Fedor ranging from -350 to as wide as -550. We'll call the -550 a bit of an aberration and go with a realistic average of between -375 and -400.
Safe to say it's going to cost you $400 to win $100 on Emelianenko.
Man, you have to be excited for this fight! This is what's known as a "pick 'em" folks. Simply stated, the odds-makers have no more of a clue about the outcome of this one than the general public. The odds are virtually dead even with some books calling it a -115 on each side, and a handful of books giving a meager edge to Kharitonov.
On the fringe, the "wildest" call is for Sergei at -140. It's safe to say, this is anybody's fight. It should be noted that many sources list Karitonov as the "Dark Horse," to steal the whole Tourney. If you're feeling lucky and want to chance a ride on the dark side, root for Sergei.
We're going to have to wait until April to get a real feel where the line is going to move for this one, but as it stands right now, the man crushing the jaw of Andre Arlovski in the photo just to the left is a nearly 3-1 underdog versus the veteran brawler Josh Barnett.
Veteran status is the likely difference maker here. While not as widely acclaimed here in the states due to some turmoil and scandal (not to mention constant bashing from Dana White), Barnett is still a serious force that has fought at the highest levels for a decade. Barnett is not likely to get spooked by the spotlight, but rather likely to thrive on it.
It's actually a testament to Rogers size and power that these odds are even this close. On the ground, this one is a lay up for Barnett. On the feet, Rogers has no picnic either due to Barnett's length. +225 / -290 in Barnett's favor.
This is the interesting one...certainly a conversation starter. Odds on this fight (also scheduled for the second week of April), are a bit controversial as it seems the odds are subject to some degree to the location of the fight. Speculation and criticism abounds that Japan (famously the home of PRIDE) may yet be the destination for the second half of the quarterfinal stage. Consistent steroid rumors have dogged "The Reem," and both Barnett and Overeem would be seen as the odds on favorites to benefit most from the total lack of serous testing in Japan.
Whether or not testing at this point would matter to any degree is surely an open debate. As it stands today, despite just recently beating the widely acknowledged greatest HW of all time (Fedor), and also having a win vs. Overeem already in the bank. Incredibly.... Werdum stands at +250 across the board. You'll have to lay out $300 to win $100 on Overeem. What does a Brazilian have to do get some respect around here!?
Interestingly, there are some slim odds that Alistair Overeem would at some point, need to beat down his brother Valentijn on the way to claiming the Heavyweight Grand Prix Championship. There are a series of unlikely, yet not impossible scenarios, which must arise before this could ever materialize, but that doesn't mean the possibility isn't fascinating. Odds on this scenario becoming a reality: Ridiculous. Don't bother calculating.
J.Wise / Guerrilla Fight
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