This is the time of year that it seems everyone is chiming in their personal opinions on who the most valuable players should be in Major League Baseball.
The definition of most valuable player is, "the player judged most valuable to the sport."
There is a problem with this definition. The problem is that the most valuable player in in any sport would be the most popular player, all stats would be thrown aside. Instead, the most valuable player would be the player that generates the most revenue.
Just like anyone else, when fall gets here, I have MVP candidates of my own. I on the other hand try to look deeper.
Like in 2006 I strongly believed, even though I am a die hard Cubs fan, that Albert Pujols was the National League MVP. It wasn't that Howard's year wasn't deserving, but I looked at it like this.
The Phillies had a better record than the Cardinals, yet the Cardinals went on to win the World Series. The Phillies didn't even make the playoffs. Now, I also know that a player doesn't have to make the playoffs to win the MVP, but in this case I thought it was important. If you take both players off their respective teams, baseball history is changed. Neither team makes the playoffs, and the Cardinals do NOT win the World Series.
So here we are in 2008. The talk is of Pujols and Howard again, but I am going to add a name, Alfonso Soriano.
The same could be true this year, all three are very important, but not all three will make the playoffs. Soriano is in, Howard is likely in, and Pujols is not. Now, since we do not have a World Series Champion yet, we aren't quite sure if history would be changed by one of these players not playing on their respective teams.
You can however do projections. So, I did my research, and came up with team records and the differences with and without their players.
| TEAM RECORDS | ||||
| CUBS | ||||
| GAMES | WINS | LOSES | WIN% | |
| TOTAL | 154 | 94 | 60 | 0.610 |
| W/OUT | 50 | 26 | 24 | 0.520 |
| WITH | 104 | 68 | 36 | 0.654 |
| CARDINALS | ||||
| GAMES | WINS | LOSES | WIN% | |
| TOTAL | 155 | 80 | 75 | 0.516 |
| W/OUT | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0.429 |
| WITH | 141 | 74 | 67 | 0.525 |
| PHILLIES | ||||
|
WINS | LOSES | WIN% | |
| TOTAL | 156 | 88 | 68 |
0.564 |
| W/OUT | 156 | 88 | 68 | 0.564 |
| WITH | 156 | 88 | 68 | 0.564 |
Now, I did projections based on team records for a full 162 game season. Since Howard has played in all of Philadelphia's games, I threw in a winning percentage of .460 which is a 104 point difference. Soriano's was 90 points different and Pujols was 87 points different so this only benefits Howard's case.
| PROJECTED RECORDS | ||||
| CUBS | ||||
| GAMES | WINS | LOSES | WIN% | |
| TOTAL | 162 | 99 | 63 | 0.610 |
| W/OUT | 162 | 84 | 78 | 0.520 |
| WITH | 162 | 106 | 56 | 0.654 |
| CARDINALS | ||||
| GAMES | WINS | LOSES | WIN% | |
| TOTAL | 162 | 84 | 78 | 0.516 |
| W/OUT | 162 | 69 | 93 | 0.429 |
| WITH | 162 | 85 | 77 | 0.525 |
| PHILLIES | ||||
| GAMES | WINS | LOSES | WIN% | |
| TOTAL | 162 | 91 | 71 | 0.564 |
| W/OUT | 162 | 75 | 87 | 0.460 |
| WITH | 162 | 91 | 71 | 0.564 |
This shows that each player is valuable to his team and that all three teams would likely be out of the playoff race. To decide whom is more valuable to his team, I took the projected wins with the player and subtracted the projected wins without the player.
When this is done, the difference with Soriano is 22 wins, and Pujols and Howard both give their teams 16 wins. So even though the Cubs would have a better record without Soriano (84-78) than the Cardinals (69-93) and Phillies (75-87) would have without Pujols or Howard, Soriano still has a bigger impact on his team.
Now, it couldn't only be decided by teams records with and without a player, so I also have projected stats for full 162 game seasons by each player. I will show their actual stats first.
| ACTUAL |
||||||||||||
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | |
| Soriano | 104 | 432 | 76 | 125 | 26 | 0 | 29 | 74 | 41 | 96 | 19 | 3 |
| Pujols | 141 | 507 | 94 | 177 | 42 | 0 | 34 | 106 | 97 | 52 | 7 | 2 |
| Howard | 156 | 591 | 99 | 146 | 25 | 3 | 46 | 141 | 79 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
| PROJECTED | ||||||||||||
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | |
| Soriano | 162 | 673 | 118 | 195 | 41 | 0 | 45 | 115 | 64 | 150 | 30 | 5 |
| Pujols | 162 | 583 | 108 | 203 | 48 | 0 | 39 | 122 | 111 | 60 | 8 | 2 |
| Howard | 162 | 614 | 103 | 152 | 26 | 3 | 48 | 146 | 82 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Soriano's AVG is .289, OBP .352, SLG .551, and OPS .903, ranks second in all categories.
Pujol's AVG is .349, OBP .453, SLG .633, and OPS 1.086, ranks first in all categories.
Howard's AVG is .247, OBP .336, SLG .533, and OPS .869, ranks third in all categories.
In my opinion, even though he has only played 104 games, Alfonso Soriano is the most valuable player. When looking at projected stats, his season is right in line with the other two. Some stats aren't really comparable considering that Soriano would have 60 more at bats, so his hit totals can not be compared to Pujols. In the same sense, he is a lead-off hitter, so Howard having 30 more RBI's than him isn't really comparable either.
So, at this time, I would have to say Soriano.
Of course, this could change if the Phillies were to win the World Series.
One thing I think everyone agrees on is that the World Series is the most valuable piece of hardware.
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2 months ago
Looking over the history of the award. Do you honestly think Alfonso Soriano deserves the NL MVP?
2 months ago
Looking at his actual stats, and knowing that he has done all of it in two-thirds of a season. Along with the fact that the impact he has on the NL's best team. Yes, I think he is deserving.
I do not think he will win though. Missing a third of the season will make that nearly impossible, I know that.
Yet, a 30HR, 75 RBI and 20 stolen bases from a leadoff hitter is something most teams would take for a full season.
2 months ago
Interesting analysis, you did some solid work here. But Soriano not only won't sniff the award, he isn't deserving. A low OBP and his defense makes him much less valuable than Pujols, who gets on base almost 50% of the time and plays gold glove defense. Howard's OBP is way too low to win the award.
2 months ago
I respectfully disagree. OBP won't be the decider.
Compare his stats from 2008 to 2007. They are nearly the same and he played 30 more games in '07. He was 12th in voting last year, and in my opinion he has been more impressive and valuable in 2008.
Also, I would like to mention that Carlos Marmol received a vote last year after playing in only 59 games. Jake Peavy was 7th in voting and only impacted 34 games. If pitchers are eligible for the award while only making 30-35 starts. I think he should be seriously looked at for the impact he has on the entire Cubs lineup and record. Not to mention his stats are very credible.
Once again, I do not think he will win, but in my opinion he is deserving.
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