Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Current Players Domonic Brown Could Develop Into
For those of you who don't know him, Domonic Brown is the outfield prospect that the Phillies brought up to the majors late last season. Brown is a young left-handed hitter who has great speed and is a good fielder.
Many people have been speculating about the number 3 prospect in the MLB. ESPN's Keith Law is no exception, saying:
“Brown demolished Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, yet still has a lot of raw aspects to his game. He may just be the rare, special talent who has to complete most of his baseball development in the majors because minor league pitching isn't a sufficient challenge for him.
"Brown has all five natural tools, and shows some refinement at the plate, where he works the count reasonably well and never had an issue with making contact until he reached Philadelphia. His swing can be a little long, but he accelerates his hands so quickly that, in the long run, I don't expect him to be a significant swing-and-miss hitter and he has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for above-average to plus power. His reads in right field still need work and despite a strong arm he tends to throw off the wrong foot, but those are problems that can be fixed with time and better instruction in the majors.
"He's not likely to fill Jayson Werth's offensive shoes right away, but if the Phillies are patient Brown can be that kind of hitter when he peaks after a few years in the big leagues.” – Keith Law, ESPN
Brown is attracting a lot of attention, and people want to know if he will be a Hall of Famer, a one-year wonder, a bust, or anywhere in between. These 10 are the players who Domonic Brown could turn into.
Some Stats You Should Know About Brown
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2010 MINORS STATS
- GM: 93
- AB: 343
- HR: 20
- RBI: 68
- SB: 17
- SO: 74
- BB: 37
- AVG: .327
- OBP: .391
- SLG: .589
Brown dominated in Redding and Lehigh Valley, and now he's stepping up to the majors.
1. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
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Kemp and Brown are both young players, with Kemp being just three years older than Brown. Kemp has great power and speed just like Brown, and he has recorded a .285 BA in the majors. Kemp has also posted 89 HR and 104 SB in his 626 games. Kemp can tear up the basepaths, and he can drive the ball.
From seeing Kemp over the last five seasons, to watching Brown in Lehigh Valley and the end of his 35-game stint with the Phils, I can say from personal experience that Brown is very much like Kemp.
One factor that is holding Brown back is his poor hitting against lefties. Brown can blast the ball against righties, but he is essentially a one-sided hitter. Kemp is surprisingly similar to this, even though there is one exception.
Brown is both a better power hitter and contact hitter against righties, while Kemp is not. Kemp hit 22 of his 28 HR off of righties, but he hit .233 against righties and .295 against lefties.
The similarity between Brown and Kemp is remarkable, and it is not too much of a stretch to say that Brown could develop into a Matt Kemp sort of player.
2. Jayson Werth (Nationals)
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Where to begin with the comparisons?
We've all heard them since Werth left and Brown was asked to step up. The truth is, Brown could develop into a Werth-like player in a few years.
In 2008 Werth had a 20-20 season, and that is not too much to ask from Brown. Brown has the pop at the plate and the speed to steal to attain both these numbers, maybe even 30-30.
A lot of people might not know it or remember it, but Werth struggled mightily against righties when he first came to Philadelphia. Werth was a day-to-day player and shared time with Shane Victorino when Aaron Rowand was on the team. Hmm, just like Domonic Brown was this season.
Werth hit .375 against lefties in 2007, and only .257 against righties. This is just like how Brown struggled against lefties.
Werth took a few years in Philly to develop, and Brown is projected to be great in a few years' time. It really is not a stretch at all to compare Brown to Werth considering that their stats when they first came to Philly are very similar, except that Brown is actually younger than Werth was.
Could Brown be the next Jayson Werth? Maybe. Could he be even better? It's not too much of a stretch. We just have to wait and see.
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3. Alfonso Sorino (Cubs)
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Now, I'm not talking about the Alfonso Soriano of 2010, but the Alfonso Soriano of his 20s. Brown might not have years of 39 HR and 41 SB like Soriano did in 2002, but he could be a 30-30 guy like Soriano was.
Soriano was a force at the plate, a thief on the basepaths, and a machine in the field. He was the complete package, and that is how some people described Brown in the minors.
If Brown continues to develop, and doesn't have any setbacks from injury, he could be a force. Brown demolished the minors, and if he can learn to hit lefty pitching in the majors, then he could become the next Alfonso Soriano.
As a Phillies fan I really hope he will, but this is a stretch. Brown has the five natural tools, and with the right coaching, he could make it.
This is probably Hall of Fame expectations, but it is possible. Only time will tell.
4. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
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Gonzalez is also a young guy, only two years older and two years more experienced than Brown. Gonzalez came into his own over the last two seasons, though, posting 47 HR and 42 SB. Gonzalez led the Rockies offense with Troy Tulowitzki, and he is now an elite outfielder.
Gonzalez hit around the mid .200s in his first two years, then broke out last year with an astounding .336 BA. Brown can hit for contact, which was demonstrated in his minor league career, and if he can put it together in the big leagues he could potentially be a Carlos Gonzalez.
Now I'm certainly not going to predict that Domonic Brown will hit .336 and 34 HR in two years—that is way too much to ask for. I will say that Brown could provide a few .300 BA, 30 HR years in his career, and if he can develop the way that most people are expecting then he may be the player for the Phillies that Gonzalez is for the Rockies.
If Brown is going to turn into Gonzalez, a few things need to happen. First off, Brown needs to learn to hit lefties better, and secondly, Brown needs to have A LOT of playing time. If Brown is stuck on the bench whenever the Philies pay a left-handed pitcher he will not develop and he will be an average player in the majors.
5. Alex Rios (White Sox)
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This one doesn't seem like too much of a stretch; Brown could easily be an Alex Rios type of player.
Rios hit only one homer in his first season, but since then he has been a double-digit guy in both HR and SB. Rios has had 57 HR and 90 SB in the last three years.
Rios has been up-and-down more or less his entire career, from hitting .302 in 2006, to 24 HR and 17 SB in 2007, to 15 HR and 32 SB in 2008. Rios had 21 HR and 34 SB in 2010, and he is turning 30 this year, so there is still some time to improve.
Rios is the type of guy who Brown could easily turn into because Brown can steal as much as, if not more than, Rios, and Brown has the power to be a 20-20 guy if he keeps improving.
Rios has been good, but has not been the greatest outfielder in the Bigs, and Brown could definitely be the next Alex Rios.
6. Torii Hunter (Angels)
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This is another comparison that would not be too difficult to imagine.
Hunter is a good batter, averaging .275 BA, 25 HR and 17 SB in his career 162-game average, but he is an even better fielder.
Hunter won nine straight Gold Gloves from 2001-2009. Hunter is an amazing fielding player, and so is Brown. One of Brown's attributes that has stuck with him in his stint in the majors is his fielding, and while he may not be a Gold Glover right now, he could certainly develop into one.
Seeing Brown play with the Phillies, you pick up on the fact that he has great range and can track most balls down. Brown also has an absolute cannon. I cannot put enough emphasis on this: He has a CANNON. I have seen Brown's arm, and it is unreal for a 22-year-old.
Brown can hit like Hunter, I've covered that, but it's his fielding that really makes him like Hunter.
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees)
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Granderson and Brown seem like they could be very similar players. Granderson and Brown are remarkable fielders, they have the speed on the basepaths and they have enough pop at the plate.
Granderson has recorded 99 HR and 60 SB in the last four years, demonstrating his speed and power.
There are also just certain plays that we have seen Granderson make that are absolutely jaw-dropping. Granderson's fielding is ridiculous, and as previously mentioned, so is Brown's.
If Brown can improve his range from corner outfield positions to center field, then he could be a better fielder than Granderson because his arm is so impressive.
Can Brown turn into a Curtis Granderson? It's very possible...we will know better in a few years.
8. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
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Matt Holliday is a great hitter, a great fielder and an amazing base-stealer.
Holliday hit 70 home runs over two years (2006, 2007) with the Colorado Rockies, and he has been a consistent power hitter. A former Rookie of the Year and four-time All Star, Holliday came into the league and hit double-digit home runs ever year of his career so far, picking up four Silver Sluggers along the way.
Holliday also has a .317 BA for his career, demonstrating his ability to make contact. These numbers are a tall order for Brown, but Holliday was older and more mature when he entered the league. I have already talked about his hitting, and if Brown progresses nicely then he could become as good a hitter as Holliday.
Holliday is a speed demon just like Brown. Holliday picked up 28 stolen bases in the 2008 campaign, and is averaging 14 steals in his 162-game average. Holliday utilizes his speed on the basepaths and in the field, just like Brown (previously mentioned).
Brown is actually faster than Holliday, and if he continues to develop with the Phillies, he could become as good as, if not better, than Matt Holliday.
9. Carl Crawford (Red Sox)
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Crawford made a big splash when he signed with Boston, and Brown might do the same in a few years.
Crawford is a thief on the basepaths, averaging a whopping 54 steals in his 162-game average. Brown probably won't become the next outfielder to average over 50 steals per year, but he does use his speed the same way in the outfield.
The reason for the comparison is the fact that Brown is fast and could steal near Crawford's numbers, and hit even better. Crawford won his first Silver Slugger in 2010, at the age of 28, and Brown is expected to be better.
Crawford has not broken 20 homers in a season yet, and he has a batting average of .296. Brown will hit more home runs, and he can bat over .300, making him the better hitter.
These two skills balance out, and make Brown a Carl Crawford who is better at hitting and worse at stealing.
10. Bobby Abreu (Angels)
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Let's end this with another ex-Philly.
Abreu was a great contact hitter, hitting over .300 every year except for one from 1998 to 2004. Brown can hit .300, too, as demonstrated by his time in the minors.
Abreu could also hit for power, hitting 20+ home runs seven times in a row starting in 1999. Abreu and Brown are both excellent hitters, and taking over Abreu's old position (right field), Brown could be the next Abreu.
Abreu also averaged 20 stolen bases in his 162-game average for his career. Brown can do this as well, and maybe even top it.
While I must reiterate the fact that he must keep on developing, Brown could become even better than Bobby Abreu.
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