I know, I'll admit. It's absurd. How could the team that got buried underneath the L.A. Coliseum possibly have a chance at making it to the BCS National Title game? The Buckeyes are through...finished...dead. We all watched them die! Right?
However, Hollywood is known for bringing the dead back to life. Forty years after George Romero directed a little movie called Night of the Living Dead, we may just have our very own college football version.
To prove my point, let's first remember last season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 11 to Illinois and they dropped from No. 1 in the AP Poll to No. 7, with one game left to play. Their National Championship run looked to be over.
But, in Week 12 Oregon and Oklahoma lost, moving Ohio State up to No. 5 after they beat Big Ten rival Michigan. Then in Week 13, LSU and Kansas lost, moving OSU to the No. 3 spot. And in the final week of play, Missouri and West Virginia both lose to put the Buckeyes at No. 1 and in the BCS National Championship Game. It was a crazy ride.
It happened once, it can happen again.
For this scenario to work, Ohio State will almost definitely have to win the rest of their games. Even with their loss to the USC Trojans, they are still as much in the hunt for their third consecutive Big Ten championship as they were before. Yes, Wisconsin and Penn State look very good, but OSU having 20 starters back from last season is still a huge deal.
As we stand now, Ohio State is No. 13 in the AP Poll. There are twelve teams in front of them, one being Wisconsin. And going by the theory that the Buckeyes run the table in the Big Ten, that moves the Badgers out of their way in the poll.
One down, eleven to go.
Five of the top ten teams are from the Southeastern Conference. The chance of any one of them making it the rest of the season without a blemish on their record is slim to none. If the SEC beats up on one another, as is often predicted, that moves the Buckeyes up every time one of them fall. If five fall, the Buckeyes are now No. 7.
Four of the top eleven teams are from the Big Twelve Conference. Oklahoma is the favorite in the South division and they play both Texas and Texas Tech. Missouri is the early favorite in the North division and they also play Texas.
The Big Twelve also has a championship game. It is possible that Oklahoma or one of the other three teams in this conference will go undefeated, although it's unlikely. If the four teams mentioned here lose once, the Buckeyes are now No. 3.
Two teams are left in front of them: South Florida and USC.
South Florida, a Big East Conference team, is No. 11 in the AP Poll, one point ahead of the Buckeyes. In the USA Today Poll they are only No. 16. Last week they beat then No. 13 Kansas with a field goal as time expired.
The only other ranked team they have to play this season is West Virginia on December 06. West Virginia takes out South Florida moving the Buckeyes to No. 2.
That leaves us with USC. The Trojans also have only one ranked team in the Pac-10 left to play (Oregon), but they also have fierce rivalries within the conference and out (Notre Dame) who will play them tough. USC has a good chance of going undefeated this season, if they play every game like they played the Buckeyes.
However, in recent years, very good Trojan teams have fallen short of the perfect season, leaving them just short of a shot at the National Title. If USC loses, that moves the Buckeyes to the No. 1 position in the AP Poll.
Even if they don't lose, OSU is No. 2, and, to the demise of college football fans everywhere, we have a rematch in Miami.
It would be nothing short of a miracle for this scenario to play out like described. It would be like three huge storms colliding into each other to form, well, one Perfect Storm, and that's never happened before either, has it?
45 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
J.C. Ayvazi 9 months ago
The longest journey begins with a single step.
There you go Michael - keep the home fires buring!
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
LOL. Well after a weekend of mourning, I was sitting around thinking about it all and came up with this scenario! Granted, it's far fetched, but hope is alive baby! Hope is Alive!
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icemanbdm 9 months ago
This is far fetched to the point of absurdity. Those 20 starters you mentioned barely got past Ohio University the week before USC, remember. Ohio State running the table is very much in doubt as I guarantee you that the rest of the Big Ten smells the blood in the water. Even if Ohio State does earn another Big Ten championship, and the rest of your scenario comes to fruition, there is no way they're going to reach #1 or #2 in the polls. 1st, it's not only a matter of whether Ohio State wins but also HOW they win. Remember, Ohio State dropped 2 spots in the polls after a WIN. Squeaking through their schedule isn't going to get them anywhere. Also, there's absolutely no way Ohio State is going to be ranked over USC this season, no matter who USC loses to. And, even if USC remains undefeated, there's no way voters would put Ohio State in a position for a rematch. Remember, people are already ruling out matching Ohio State against ANYONE from the SEC this year. I would argue that this is even more true for a team that embarrassed them this season. You're also assuming that one loss from any of the teams above the Buckeyes would automatically drop them below Ohio State, which may not be the case. There are plenty of teams above the Buckeyes that would have a solid case for remaining above them even with a loss, particularly if they come out of the SEC or Big 12. Don't forget, there are other teams in the Top 25 with the potential to move up with (and ahead of Ohio State). Currently, there are 7 undefeated teams in the polls behind Ohio State. Although there's no way that all of them will win out, there's certainly the potential for 1 or 2 to do so (especially the winner of BYU-Utah or ECU) or for any of the 1 loss teams (above or below) to win out. Don't forget, (as a corollary to what I said earlier) it's not only that you lose, it's HOW you lose. Last year LSU got to the title game by virtue of the fact that their 2 losses in overtime were somehow deemed less bad than any of the horrible losses anybody else had. When it comes to the end of the season, I have no doubt that there will be a 1 loss team with a better ( or maybe I should say more competitive) loss than Ohio State. Sorry, Buckeyes fans, not this year. But don't worry, at best you can console yourselves with another Big Ten championship and maybe a Rose Bowl victory (provided you don't have to play USC). In a couple years, once you develop Pryor and a few others, maybe you can reenter the national title conversation. Oh, and that fact that you expect Notre Dame to play USC "tough" is beyond laughable.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
I know it's absurd. I opened the article saying that. All I'm saying is that Ohio State backed their way into the title game last year, and if the stars are aligned just right, it could happen again. It may be a one in a million chance, but there is a chance. Plus I don't have the confidence in the pollsters that you have. I'm for a playoff, which would put this scenario to shame. The BCS formula used today would allow something like this to happen. I wish it would. The more controversy we have about the BCS, the sooner they'll get rid of it.
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Andrew Jackson 9 months ago
Hey icebumble, you must be a supporter of a team called The Jock !
fact is fact stranger things have and can happen.
So go find Brutus (coincidence ?) and present your soliloquy somewhere else
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BabyTate 9 months ago
Michael, this is a powerhouse article. I believe you will find yourself in the midst of some controversy since Ohio State is repeatedly losing these big games by large margins.
I like your analysis regarding how the season may play out. Good reasoning in many areas there.
Keep up the good work, you have a great future ahead in the Bleacher Report. And stick by your guns, pay attention to what outstanding writers say about your work. You've had a great one in J.C. look you over, and he's a Southern Cal fan!
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks BT. Just trying to stir the coals a little. Nothing is impossible in college football. That's why I referenced last season. It was really pretty ridiculous that the Buckeyes made it to the BCS title game and look what happened. With the BCS formula, sometimes it's OK to lose in the regular season, if you don't lose last. :)
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Kent Moore 9 months ago
Michael,
You are definitely stirring the coals. I love the Buckeyes as much as any other man, but I REALLY REALLY REALLY hope they don't make it back to the NCG. This team needs to refocus and get back to the basics. I would take them going to the Rose Bowl or even the Captial One Bowl/Outback Bowl. But the NCG is clearly not what this team needs or deserves right now. Maybe in a couple years once the program changes some things, especially play calling. I think with the incoming recruiting classes that OSU has had and will have, the team can return to being elite.
But right now they have taken a step back and they definitely should not be thrusted back into the spotlight this year.
If the "Perfect Storm" does happen...it would probably have to be the Perfect "Perfect Storm".....I would be happy of course....but at the same time i would be disgusted.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
I concur with your feelings Kent. I don't want to see the Bucks go to the NCG just to get pummeled again. But on the other hand, it would be funny to see the whole nation in an uproar again. Plus, like I said earlier, I like BCS controversy because it gets us closer to no more BCS.
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Nick The Only 9 months ago
On the flip side, USC could miss out on the title game even if it goes undefeated. If there is an undefeated Big 12 team and an undefeated SEC team at the end of the season, USC may fall behind them on strength of schedule. The conference title games would give the SEC and Big 12 teams a huge boost to leap USC if they haven't already. With 4 Big 12 teams in the top 11 and 5 SEC teams in the top 10, there are plenty of marquee matchups for those teams to garner national attention.
Meanwhile USC will play a bunch of unranked Pac-10 teams and Notre Dame.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
You're right, USC doesn't have much competition left, so it would be interesting to see what happens if there are 3 undefeated teams at the conclusion of the regular season.
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Isaac Luber 9 months ago
This really has no shot. Don't just run by Penn State and Wisconsin. They are tougher than you think. Also, Oklahoma has a great chance at going undefeated because their conference doesn't play defense, and Oklahoma does. The only team that would have a shot at Oklahoma is Mizzou, and they could make it to the Championship as well. If Ohio State loses any games, most likely the only other one they lose it to Penn State, they are done. Also, if they lose to PSU and PSU runs the table, then a PSU vs. USC matchup looks possible in Miami in January.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Running the table in the Big Ten isn't a walk in the park. For OSU, PSU, or Wisconsin to do so would be an incredible feat. If PSU does, they definitely are in in my mind.
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Ryan Staab 9 months ago
I have a feeling the pollsters will do everything in their power to keep Ohio State out of the #1 or #2 spots and in turn, throw off the BCS computer rankings.
Although your scenario is a possibility, I'd rather the team go for its third Big Ten title in a row and take on the PAC 10's #2 team in the Rose Bowl (assuming USC goes to Miami for the BCS championship)
Well written and well researched article.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks for the comment Ryan. I really think that OSU has a good shot at the Big Ten title. Now whether this scenario plays out or not is secondary to a Conference championship. We should take care of short term goals before long term goals anyway. Maybe looking at the NCG before the Big Ten title was secured is what screwed us up in the first place.
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icemanbdm 9 months ago
I'm not questioning your argument's validity, because you're right, it is possible, I'm just saying it's not true. I could, with enough time and paper, construct a logically sound scenario in which Duke and North Texas meet in the national championship, and that does have a incredibly small (but greater than zero) chance of happening. But doing that wouldn't get us anywhere. Also, I distinctly remember reading articles in the preseason with actual pollsters expressing reservations about putting the Buckeyes back in the title game on the basis of the past two years, which isn't fair, but that mentality to me represents the biggest barrier to OSU this year. And I hate to break it to you, but we're stuck with the BCS. There's no way the schools and corporations would agree to a playoff system... but that's an argument for another day. I guess if we're supposed to congratulate you on your logic and the validity (but not truth) of your arguments, then kudos to you. Aristotle would be proud.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
You're right, the pollsters hate the Buckeyes, and they probably will do all they can to keep OSU out, but don't forget Fate. He's plays a big role too.
Thanks for the kudos. It did take a while to right this. ;)
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Sebastian 9 months ago
Very intriguing article. Great read!
And frightening foresight... now watch all this unfold.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks Sebastian. If this does happen, it will be a blast to watch.
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evan m 9 months ago
Wow I have to hand it to you. That is THE WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME THE BCS COULD GIVE US THIS SEASON. I would be so depressed if that happened. Hopefully two of the following happen and save the day by sending the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl:
1. USC wins out. This is actually really really likely. They are sexy. Their only difficult game is Oregon, but they know this so I expect them to be extra ready. I know you mentioned the Fighting Irish but in my opinion, Notre Dame is horrible and will more than likely be destroyed even worse than the Buckeyes.
Even if they drop a game. If I'm a voter I'm willing to be pretty forgiving in a direct comparison to OSU given what happened in the head to head.
2. The Big 12 or SEC produces a one loss or undefeated champ. I think that will be enough to push OSU back to 3 or lower because of the difference in conference talent. A one loss champ in the SEC or Big 12 clearly picked up more quality wins than OSU going undefeated in the Big 10. While SEC history shows that teams end up getting too beaten up in conference to make the NC game, the scenario isn't nearly as likely as past years suggest. Yes these big games knock down one of the teams in OSU's way back to the championship. They also propel another team closer to the NC game by putting a quality win on their resume and crossing a "difficult game" off their schedule. I see a ring of losses that produces a two loss champ as actually about equally likely to one team making in through their big games to be a clear winner. Given that this year there are two conferences that could produce such a winner, our chances of a having a championship game participant from a good conference are doubled.
3. The Buckeyes lose to PSU or Wisconsin or Illinois. We've already seen the OSU D struggle with a dynamic offense. Maybe the Nittany Lions can pull off the same. God knows the Buckeyes cannot keep up with the Juice athletically. PJ Hill is a beast, who knows?
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
All very likely. Thanks for the input. I'm really excited about the rest of the season. As with last season, there is sure to be plenty of drama to be played out on the field.
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Dan Boss 9 months ago
Even if this plays out, I think a one loss Big 12 or SEC team would keep the #2 spot behind USC, especially if they lose early. If either Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia, or Florida lose a game but win their conference championship game, they will be a lock. If this happens in both conferences they would finish #2 and #3 depending on the pollsters. Ohio State wouldn't make it any higher than #4.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
I think the key, like you said, is who loses early. In 2006, Florida lost in the seventh week, which allowed them time to recuperate and make it to the NCG. Which of course they won, against the undefeated Buckeyes.
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Matthew Anzueto 9 months ago
The only way OSU makes it to the NCG is if every other legitimate National Championship contender has 3 losses. The way OSU has been playing in big games, I have no doubt that even a 2-loss SEC team or maybe even a 2-loss Big 12 team would pass over a 1-loss OSU team. USC will run the table, and win the National Championship. USC will not be jumped if they win out even if the pac-10 is weak this season. Oklahoma would be jumped if Georgia went undefeated based on their SOS. I'm not sure if Florida could jump Oklahoma if they went undefeated. Anyway USC will be holding the crystal ball in January whether it's against OU, Florida, Georgia, or some darkhorse like Mizzou.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks for the input Matthew, but I don't think a 3 loss team would be ranked higher than a 1 loss Buckeye team. Even with OSU's reputation.
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Michael Oleszek 9 months ago
The only way Ohio State can make it back to the National Championship is to buy tickets to the game.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
LOL. You may be right, but the only one who can afford the ticket is Coach Tressel.
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12 9 months ago
Michael, anything is possible...not probable, but possible. If Ohio State runs the table, and there a couple of top ranked teams with 2 losses, who knows? LSU made the dance with 2 losses last season, so why can't OSU make it with one? I will say the cards are stacked against OSU because mainly of the failure to make a close game of the past 3 big games they've played in, but stranger things have happened. And if the powers that be see fit to give them the votes, we just could see this happen. Never lose hope my friend. People have had a field day bashing my team for the past several years, so don't let 'em get you down. Hold your head high and support your team proudly...that's what college football is all about.
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12 9 months ago
Oh, and Michael, I enjoyed the read. Awesome writing.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks dude. I enjoyed writing it and have enjoyed the additional comments even more. ANYTHING is possible, that's why this sport is so great.
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Steven Resnick 9 months ago
This should be filed under humor. The Buckeyes will be lucky to not be a 4 loss team.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Ouch, don't twist the knife, just take it out slowly.
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Ryan 9 months ago
Face facts, Buckeye fans: your team will lose to AT LEAST one of Illinois/Wisconsin/Penn State and find itself out of the BCS title picture.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Yes, if they lose to one of those 3 you mentioned, they're definitely out. If not...well that's my point.
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adam oakes 9 months ago
icemanbdm, i agree with most of what you are saying but come on, BYU-Utah winner and ECU going ahead of Ohio State for a possibility in the NCG? That's a little bit out of mind, i mean yes ECU had 2 nice upsets to start, big whoop, they got what they deserved (a high ranking early for their victories) but they skinned off Tulane and if your going to chew up Michael for saying it matters HOW you lose, then don't even think about ECU (they did drop for that win). Another thing, Notre Dame will give USC a fight, do you not remember when USC won because of a final second goal line run? Notre Dame will give USC a fight not just because they are Notre Dame and are on National Television every week, but because they have something to prove after that horrendous season and they are starting to do it and I'm sure Jimmy Clausen and Charlie Weis would love to do it against the top ranked USC.
Michael, it is a good article and i like your points but it's almost a pointless argument, most teams still have that 1 in a million chance, the season just started. One bet i wouldn't argue against is OSU's rival Penn State going to the National Championship game out of the big 10, they are mowing teams down left and right and if they stay undefeated they should have an automatic bid! They have not faced much competition yet in Oregon State, Syracuse and Coastal Carolina but they showed everyone by outscoring the 3 teams 166-37, OUCH!!! Their schedule will only get much tougher by facing ranked opponents, Illinois at home, OSU at OSU, and Wisconsin at Wisconsin and don't forget Iowa on the road as well, they are yet to lose as well.
Thanks and good luck with your longshot story Michael!
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adam oakes 9 months ago
icemanbdm, i agree with most of what you are saying but come on, BYU-Utah winner and ECU going ahead of Ohio State for a possibility in the NCG? That's a little bit out of mind, i mean yes ECU had 2 nice upsets to start, big whoop, they got what they deserved (a high ranking early for their victories) but they skinned off Tulane and if your going to chew up Michael for saying it matters HOW you lose, then don't even think about ECU (they did drop for that win). Another thing, Notre Dame will give USC a fight, do you not remember when USC won because of a final second goal line run? Notre Dame will give USC a fight not just because they are Notre Dame and are on National Television every week, but because they have something to prove after that horrendous season and they are starting to do it and I'm sure Jimmy Clausen and Charlie Weis would love to do it against the top ranked USC.
Michael, it is a good article and i like your points but it's almost a pointless argument, most teams still have that 1 in a million chance, the season just started. One bet i wouldn't argue against is OSU's rival Penn State going to the National Championship game out of the big 10, they are mowing teams down left and right and if they stay undefeated they should have an automatic bid! They have not faced much competition yet in Oregon State, Syracuse and Coastal Carolina but they showed everyone by outscoring the 3 teams 166-37, OUCH!!! Their schedule will only get much tougher by facing ranked opponents, Illinois at home, OSU at OSU, and Wisconsin at Wisconsin and don't forget Iowa on the road as well, they are yet to lose as well.
Thanks and good luck with your longshot story Michael!
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks for the comment Adam. Your points are very good. And I'm going to need a lot of luck for this longshot to become reality.
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Lee Henderson 9 months ago
I admire your optimism. It's far fetched that they would finish in the title game but I admire somebody who still supports their team after such an early loss. Most fans would just completely turn on their team at this point.
"It's happened once, it can happen again." I bet that's what they said the year after DiMaggio hit in 56 straight games and Bill Russell scored 100 points too. :)
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
Thanks for the comments Lee. I've always been a "glass half-full guy", I'm from Ohio. We have the Bengals, Browns, and Buckeyes. Feel the pain?
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David-S Serdinak 9 months ago
I know it's "possible". I'd LOVE to see it, too. There are two schools of thought. It's difficult for anyone outside of Ohio to want to see a rematch with USC; that was a vicious beating. However, money always plays a role. The Big-10 is a moneymaker. Regardless of what is wanted, it's difficult to ignore a team who runs the table on the Big-10. Unlike most, I sincerely believe that the Buckeyes can do that. What they have to do is improve each week and make some believe that it'd be different against USC, 'cause, trust me, USC is going to be there. Also, the Big-10 has to look formidable this season, something they haven't done in awhile. Anyway, it IS possible and you can't ask more from a team who's been there every year. USC is going to show that they're one of the best in history, so OSU will have plenty of company in being crushed by them.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
You're right. And after watching today's game with Terrell Pryor starting behind center, they have an argument that they will in fact be a different and better team at the end of the season. Our turn around starts now!
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Jimmy Grappone 9 months ago
For the love of sport, I sure hope they DON'T make it to a 3rd National Championship Game. Whomever they play will just blow them out again. I'd much rather watch a team from the SEC or Big XII have a chance to take out USC. I'm hoping someone will emerge from one of those mega conferences undefeated and fighting for the title. Or, if USC loses, we could get an SEC v Big XII matchup. Please, just no one from the ACC or Big Ten!
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
What do you think of Penn State or even Wisconsin from the Big Ten making it?
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David-S Serdinak 9 months ago
I'm amazed that Penn State is good. Joe Pa continues to recruit, which is astounding. No recruit can count on a head coach's promises when he's that old. Without being mean, you have to admit that Paterno's coaching career could end any day. I'm surprised that the kids who he recruits don't consider that. I'm still a believer in OSU's supremacy in the Big 10. Despite their problems outside the conference, they own this one.
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Michael Cline 9 months ago
You said a mouthful then. Go Bucks!
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