Tiger Woods: How To Gauge His Success at Torrey Pines

There are a lot of ways to determine success. For some people, it is getting up every morning and being on the right side of the grass.  Others are tougher on themselves, including most of us.  

Champions, like Tiger Woods seem to be toughest of all on their performance because they expect a lot in terms of results.  However, they are more realistic than most people know.  They know how their practice sessions have gone.  They know how they feel over putts. They know if their drives have the right ball flight.  We don’t.  We have to guess, based on what we see and hear.

Players like Woods and Phil Mickelson are asked for a lot of press conferences, particularly when they have won a tournament. How they handle that situation gives members of the media some idea of how they are feeling coming into the competition. 

If Woods declines, there is something wrong, perhaps a sign that his confidence is not where it should be.

Mickelson, being a local, if he does not agree  to meet the press, then we might gather there are some kind of issues. It would be total speculation, but that's where everyone's thoughts would go until information to the contrary is presented. 

Next, there’s time spent on the range.  Torrey Pines has a minimal range, and if Woods or Mickelson wants to spend a few hours, they might spend it elsewhere, at any one of the clubs up and down I-5. 

Having passed the pre-tournament interview and the practice sessions, it’s how they feel coming off the course after a pro-am.  Are they chatty and feeling good?  Are they playing duck and cover with reporters?  Now, they could be feeling great and still play duck and cover. 

The first tee shot is always a good indication, but we may not see it live.  Tee times are divided into morning and afternoon sessions.  Woods and Mickelson never play in the same part of the draw because having one of them for television is what the networks want.  They never play the first or last groupings because those are where the newcomers and non-winners are slotted.  If Woods is in the television coverage on Thursday, then Mickelson will be in the television coverage on Friday, and vice versa.

Complicating matters, Torrey Pines uses two courses for the first two rounds. Whoever draws the North Course on day one gets the South Course on day two.

However, no matter who is where when, you can bet that someone will be on Woods watch.  We will have some record of his play, even if other players are skipped over, at least the first round.

If Woods has a hard time finding fairways, that will be an indicator that his game is not sharp yet.  That doesn’t mean he can’t do well or that he can’t post a score because Lord knows Woods has won from almost as many crazy locations as Seve Ballesteros, although, so far, not from a parking lot.

How Woods' putter behave is the next test.  The greens at Torrey Pines are poa annua mixed with bentgrass.  In the afternoons, the Tour players complain that they get bumpy with the poa growth on them during the day.  The poa gets like little broccolis, if we are to believe what we are told.  The bent just lies there.  So one surface is bumpier than the other. 

Most of us would never know the difference. To the average golfer, most Tour quality conditions are so good that it’s a shock.  Most Tour fairways are better than greens at average courses.  But back to Woods’ putting.  Aside from the typical complaints about the greens, if he has three-putt episodes in the morning, that has less to do with poa growth. Then putting is something to question.

Ballstriking is next.  The Tiger Woods everyone knows and loves on the golf course hits shots from any location that end up inside 12 feet.  Often they end up inside three feet, much to his competitors’ dismay.  Obviously, this makes getting to birdie a lot easier.  But if his long game does not provide enough accuracy to allow birdie chances, then it may be back to the range for Woods.

Finally, the only real thing that matters: what did he shoot? 

The North Course at Torrey Pines is about 700 yards shorter than the South Course. That’s where, in decent weather, par is somewhere in the area of 68 for Tour pros.  If Tiger Woods posts a number higher than 68 on the North Course, he has a problem.  

The South Course, which was used for the US Open in 2008, is closer to having par 72 mean something.  Still, with four par fives, that should mean par is really 68 for Tiger Woods on the South Course.  If he shoots over par there, well, he will probably make the cut, but he will not be on the top of the leaderboard.            

The cut last year was -2.  Even if a player is not burning up the course and just makes the cut on the number, he can win.  But he has to get to Saturday first.

Now, all that said, Woods may come out and shoot six under on the North Course one day and four under on the South Course and be right in the mix.  That’s why we watch.  It’s impossible to know the outcome until the scorecards are signed.