The Red Sox haven’t given up on winning the A.L. East just yet.
For proof, look no further than their usage of Jonathan Papelbon. Since last Sunday, Boston’s closer has thrown five innings, including three-consecutive appearances against Texas and Tampa Bay to start the week.
After three days off, he was back on the hill twice this weekend against Toronto.
But, the results have not been vintage Papelbon.
Despite having six days of rest to start the month, he allowed six hits over three innings against the Rangers and Rays, taking the loss on Tuesday after he gave up a game-tying home run to leadoff batter Dan Johnson, and the lead on back-to-back doubles to Fernando Peréz and Dioner Navarro.
On Saturday, he recorded his only clean frame so far in September. But returning less than 24 hours later, he was lucky to get out with a save, as Toronto rocked him for what could have easily been more than two runs.
Papelbon caught a break as Lyle Overbay was called out on what should have been a double, and rallied to strand the tying run at third.
It was a win against a red-hot division rival that, entering the series, had reinserted themselves into the wild-card discussion by virtue of taking 11 of their last 12.
It was a win that put them one game behind Tampa Bay for the A.L. East.
Hopefully, it was a win—and a week—that gives the Red Sox pause before using their closer on consecutive days down the stretch.
After giving up just one run in the month of August, Papelbon has struggled in September.
Unable to locate his breaking pitches, and unable to prevent his fastball from being driven deep, he is not pitching like the shut-down closer that has anchored the Red Sox's bullpen since the first week of the 2006 season.
With two weeks left, Papelbon has already thrown more innings than he did last season and will probably surpass his career high. Having pitched deep into October less than a year ago, it’s no surprise that he’s looking a little gassed.
But this isn’t just a question of rest. Despite the increased workload, the Red Sox haven’t ridden their closer into the ground. Besides, Papelbon’s bad outings are historically just as likely to come after a few days off as too many days on.
And for all the good it would do his fastball, an extended refresher might exacerbate his control problems on breaking pitches.
Managing a closer’s use is difficult because save situations are impossible to predict. Over the season, long layoffs and periods of overwork tend to even themselves out.
But over the next two weeks, the Red Sox need to keep Jonathan Papelbon fresh without wearing him down. Using him in the traditional closers role provides no guarantee of either.
If Boston is committed to having a closer available each night, it might be worth holding Justin Masterson back for the ninth the day after Papelbon pitches.
Masterson has been lights out in September, but he’s approaching 130 IP after beginning the season as a starter. Using the two pitchers alternately (don’t say committee) would help to manage their workload down the stretch, with the downside of weakening the Sox's middle relief.
Monday’s matchup in Tampa doesn’t help matters. Daisuke Matsuzaka has thrown only five innings in both of his starts against the Rays this year. Unless he can manage his pitch count and go deeper into the game, it’ll be hard for Terry Francona to fill the innings, let alone hold anyone back in a close game.
The best solution would be a big day for the offense, but that’s unlikely against Scott Kazmir.
Boston is halfway through a crucial two-week stretch against the Blue Jays and Rays that could decide the division and eliminate Toronto from the wild card. There’s plenty of pressure on the Red Sox to treat these games as do-or-die. If they can do that by spreading responsibilities, they may become a deeper team in October.
But overusing their bullpen’s strongest weapon has already cost Boston one victory this week—and two games in the standings—and it almost happened again today.
11 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Tom Marshall 9 months ago
I simply don't understand why Papelbon was used last Sunday against Texas. Going into a 3 game series against the AL East leading Tampa Rays (I don't think I'll ever get used to saying that) you have to assume you will want/need Pap for at least 2 of those games. Why use him against Texas? I know they have a strong offense but clearly beating Tampa needs to take priority.
Edit Comment Cancel
Dimitri Zagoroff 9 months ago
Agreed. I think the idea was to give him some work, since he hadn't pitched in nearly a week, but it definitely backfired on them. If they are going to continue using him as the closer on consecutive nights, I hope they at least keep him out of garbage time situations like that one.
Edit Comment Cancel
Jimmy Grappone 9 months ago
Go Sox! We need a healthy pitching staff going into the stretch and the playoffs. Everyone knows the Sox can score runs, let's just hope they can keep the opposition from doing the same!
Edit Comment Cancel
Michael Hurley 9 months ago
Pap is relying too much on his fastball and not mixing in the devestating splitter and good slider. Hitters are waiting on it the entire time. Now don't get me wrong it was a 3-2 count for the Dan Johnson home run so fastball is a normal call, but Johnson had just missed one the pitch before. Pap needs to be confident enough in all three pitches because big league hitters can sit on even a 97 m.p.h fastball.
Edit Comment Cancel
Dimitri Zagoroff 9 months ago
Farrell has said that he's using the fastball more to get through innings quicker; it's not gonna work if it's coming in belt high though.
As far as mixing in the breaking stuff, he's currently unable to locate those pitches very well. He definitely needs to get more confident with the slider and splitter to get back to his dominant self.
Edit Comment Cancel
Nate Double 9 months ago
First of all, great article.
One thing to consider is that Francona isn't going to overly tax his team in order to catch the Rays. Instead of wearing out the entire team to grab 1st place in the division hes playing to keep the wild card. In fact he was questioned on this during a press conference this past weekend and he completely ducked the question.
Pap needs to get back to using all his pitches but also back to climbing the ladder with his fastball. I've lost track of the number of times his strikeout pitch was a letters high fastball that hitters just couldn't hold back taking a swing at.
I totally agree that Masterson should be used in close game situations where the Sox will likely need two innings out of him. Masterson is perfect for that type of role.
Edit Comment Cancel
Dimitri Zagoroff 9 months ago
Thanks Nate. I hope you're right about Francona's strategy down the stretch. But thus far, the Sox seem to be trying to take care of business now against their direct competition, and hoping that things get decided before the final week. That's understandable given two straight weeks against a team they're chasing, and one that's chasing them, but I'd agree with you that just playing for the wild card makes more sense. I guess we'll find out tonight...
Edit Comment Cancel
RedSox Maniac 9 months ago
I think this is overblown. He's been really good the whole year, and now has come upon a snag.
All closers come upon a snag. Close to the playoffs? Yes, I would be a little wary. But to the point of changing his style that he has used to win a ring already? I don't know if I would go that far.
Its hard to tell Varitek and Papelbon to change the pitching style at the end of the season. Bobby Jenks has nearly the same motion as Papelbon and uses his assortment of pitches, and he is struggling too.
Mariano Rivera lives of the cut fastball. Papelbon's doesn't cut as much, but it has movement, and he is impossible to hit when he hit those corners. It'd be good to see him add more of his slider/splitter action into the mix, but I don't expect a re-invention of how much he uses the fastball.
I think the Sox don't have much to worry about, and if they do, there is really not much they can fix right now. I think this team is ready for the playoffs, and if they don't win, its because they weren't the best team.
But they look like the best team, so I'll put my cards on where they stand as of now.
Edit Comment Cancel
Dimitri Zagoroff 9 months ago
Part of the problem is that they already HAVE changed the style of pitching that he used to win the ring last year.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/09/10/papelbon_is_trying_to_re_locate/
Apparently he's intentionally relied on the fastball this year, to in order to get through innings without throwing as many pitches. Considering that it's a 'marathon' strategy (conserving his arm over the course of the season), it seems worthwhile to adjust now that they're entering the 'sprint' portion of the season. And all the moreso when the fastball doesn't have any movement!
Edit Comment Cancel
RedSox Maniac 9 months ago
I think he has some tail on his fastball. It comes back into the plate on lefties; it has a little dip. My whole point is that its hard to change someone's style this far into the season. If it works, he'll only be so much better than he is now ( since he has been really good this season ), and there is a chance you could screw this guy up going into the playoffs.
In the end, if the Red Sox don't win it, they don't. But looking at this team, other than not having Manny, there isn't much I can see happening that will get this team any better.
Edit Comment Cancel
Rory Davis 9 months ago
Great article Dimitri. I agreed with most everything you have to say. Papelbon's recent struggles should be a big concern for Sox Nation heading into the playoffs. You guys seem to be clicking on all cylinders besides bullpen woes. Keep up the good work!
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.