Sean Singletary: Virginia's Star Could Shine Even Brighter

The Daily Progress, Charlottesville’s top-of-the-line local newspaper, recently featured an article about “combo guards,” or shoot-first point guards. 

According to said paper, the “combo guard” is currently one of the sexy buzzwords in college basketball—presumably the others are AASA, efficiency, and Lorenzo Mata-Real. 

The New York Times published a similar piece around the time of last year’s NCAA tournament. The DP rehashed the Times' story in a roundabout way in order to gush about Sean Singletary, Virginia’s shoot-first point guard.  To round out their roundabout, my subject today is a critical essay on Singletary.

I find Singletary to be fascinating player.  To use an old analogy, he’s a peppercorn on the court: small and powerful.  He’s tough as nails, drives the lane, and wears his emotions on his sleeve.  Heck, Ken Pomeroy even has a slight man-crush on him.  So, what’s not to like?

My main problem with Singletary is that he shoots too much.  Like any good economist will tell you, the gentleman should specialize: he should try to function less as a shooter and more of a facilitator.  Often, his shot comes when he’s out of control and trying to take on a multitude of defenders. 

In addition, for a guy who makes a nice living out of bowling his way to the basket, he fails to get many old-fashioned three-point plays. 

So as not to paint the picture too vividly with platitudes, let's take a look at some statistics which bear this out.  He shoots on more than a full quarter of Virginia’s possessions (26%), but yet only posts an effective FG percentage (eFG) of 49%. 

Although not as scary as JR Reynolds—more on him in a bit—the rest of the team is shooting remarkably well.  Mamadi Diane, Adrian Joseph, and Calvin Baker—UVA’s other primary offensive weapons—are all shooting above 55%, with Diane and Baker shooting over 62%. 

Joseph takes his fair share of shots (25%).  Diane and Baker, however, shoot less than 21% of the time, with Diane accounting for a paltry 18% of shots.  With an increase in attempts, their shooting percentages would undoubtedly cool off. The shift in offensive philosophy would still allow Virginia to increase its overall scoring — it's currently a middling 6th in the ACC in offensive efficiency against some suspect competition.  

Furthermore, Singletary is an assist machine.  His assist percentage for the year is a rather ridiculous 40%, which may contribute to his teammates’ high shooting percentage.  He is easily the top-rated player in this category in the ACC. Creating baskets for his compatriots has cost Singletary a few additional turnovers. His turnover percentage is much higher this year (26%) than in previous years (19% in 2007 and 21% in 2006), but 20-25% is about average for most point guards.  

Many grouchy UVA fans will wag their finger at me and say, “But we’re missing that gunslinger, JR Reynolds!”  This is true.  Defenses are focusing more on Singletary than they were last year, when he formed half of the best backcourt in the ACC. 

But last year’s team did not have the depth that this year’s team does, and was merely a two-trick pony. 

Virginia has a ton of three-point shooters this year.  They can open more lanes than they did last year, allowing Singletary to dish to open teammates for dunks and threes—the area in which he excels most.