Every year, I spend an inordinate amount of time watching and commenting on NFL games. Like most NFL fans, I think (probably incorrectly) that I can do a better job picking winners and losers than the Vegas sportsbooks can.
Of course, the whole reason those sportsbooks continue to exist is that, generally speaking, the vast betting public does not do a better job picking winners and losers. In fact, it’s an incredibly lucrative business because for the general public to even break even, it needs to pick correctly 11/21 times.
Anyhow, this season I’ve decided to sack up and actually see how I do against the spread, in public. All season, I’ll post my weekly picks against a well-known Vegas sportsbook (MGM Mirage).
I’ll pull the current point spreads a couple of days before the games start from vegasinsider.com, a fairly reputable site for such things. And then, every week, you can come back and see how I did (and laugh at me).
Here's week one:
Thursday
WAS (+4) at NYG
Return to glory for the Super Bowl champs? No Osi, no problem.
Pick: NYG
Sunday
DET (-3) at ATL
Rookie QB starting in his first NFL game? There’s no way I’m picking that.
Pick: DET
SEA (+1) at BUF
I like the Buffalo Bills as a trendy pick for the playoffs. I also love Trent Edwards.
Pick: BUF
NYJ (-3) at MIA
Game one of Brett Favre Era 2.0, but I’m not believing it.
Pick: MIA
KC (+16) at NE
No comment.
Pick: NE
TB (+3) at NO
Even though Jeff Garcia single-handedly ruined a Vegas weekend for me last year.
Pick: TB
STL (+7.5) at PHI
I like Philly this year, even against my old roommate.
Pick: PHI
HOU (+6.5) at PIT
Not really buying the Texans as a sleeper.
Pick: PIT
JAX (-3) at TEN
On the road for Jacksonville. Plus Jeff Fisher hates the Jaguars. I’ll take the points.
Pick: TEN
CIN (-1.5) at BAL
I just don’t really trust Cincinnati at all. Especially not on the road, in a divisional game.
Pick: BAL
CAR (+9) at SD
Remember the old days when Carolina was always a trendy pick to get to the Super Bowl?
Pick: SD
ARI (-3) at SF
The JTO/Martz Era is in full effect. I think we’re going to win outright.
Pick: SF
DAL (-4.5) at CLE
I don't even know what the over is on this game, but I’d take it.
Pick: DAL
CHI (+9.5) at IND
I have inside sources (Un-Pseudo Stoops) that say the Bears might be awful this year.
Pick: IND
Monday
MIN (+2.5) at GB
I saw Aaron Rodgers with my own eyes a few years ago—he is not Brett Favre.
Pick: MIN
DEN (-3) at OAK
I ended up drafting Jay Cutler in every fantasy league I’m in. Huge season coming up.
Pick: DEN
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