Bowl Schedule 2010: Predicting the Winner of Every Bowl Game
Now that we know all the bowl games, it is time to start thinking about who is going to win them. Every year, there are classic bowl games and some games that are duds. There are classic performances and there are performances to forget. Even though it's not a playoff system (but hopefully there is one...someday), the bowl games are always a treat to watch.
The number of bowl games has gotten a little out of control. There are 35 FBS bowl games meaning that 70 out of 120 teams get to play in a bowl game. Even the names of the bowl games have become absurd. The Compass Bowl? The Beef O'Brady's bowl? Seriously.
Anyway, the games are still fun to watch, no matter who is playing in them. Here is a look at all 35 Bowl Games with predictions and analysis on each one presented in chronological order.
New Mexico Bowl: BYU Vs UTEP
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The bowl season gets kicked off with the Las Vegas Bowl on December 18th with the UTEP and BYU. Both teams come into the game with a 6-6 record, but have taken very different paths to get here. UTEP started 5-1, then lost five of their final six games.
BYU, on the other hand, started the year 1-4 but were able to finish the year strong by going 5-2 in their last seven games, including a strong performance in a 17-16 loss against No. 20 Utah to end the year. Go with the hot team in this one.
Prediction: BYU 27 UTEP 21
Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois Vs Fresno State
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Northern Illinois will be coming off a heartbreaking loss to Miami (OH) in the MAC championship game. Even with that, the Huskies have put together a very nice year; they are 10-3 and finished the year 13th in the country in points scored (37.8) and 16th in points against (19.1).
The Bulldogs have been very inconsistent this year, and their defense is ranked 79th in the country in points allowed (29.2). That's not a very good combination to have going up against a very good Northern Illinois team.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 41 Fresno State 17
New Orleans Bowl: Ohio Vs Troy
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Two different offensive styles meet in New Orleans on December 18th, as Ohio brings their power-running attack against Troy's open air style. The difference in the game will be in the defenses. Troy ranked 92nd in points allowed (31.0), while Ohio finished 34th (21.8). Plus, the Bobcats can control the clock and the pace of the game.
Prediction: Ohio 26 Troy 17
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Beef O'Brady's Bowl St Petersburg Bowl: Southern Miss Vs Louisville
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Louisville is really good on defense, allowing 18.7 points per game. Plus, they shut out the Big East Champion UConn Huskies 26-0 earlier in the year. The offense is below average, ranking 71st in the country in points scored (26.0). They have a good running game led by Bilal Powell's 1330 yards this season.
The Southern Mississippi offense is really good, averaging nearly 38 points per game. But their defense is pretty bad, giving up nearly 30 points a game. It will be interesting to see whose style will win out between these two very different teams.
Prediction: Southern Mississippi 28 Louisville 20
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Vs Boise State
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At one time this season, Utah was 8-0 and in the top five in the BCS. They stumbled big time against TCU and Notre Dame, ruining any BCS hopes that the Utes may have had, and didn't look impressive against San Diego State and BYU to end the year.
Boise State is looking at TCU in the Rose Bowl and thinking that should be us. They played in one of the great games of 2010 against Nevada and lost in heartbreaking fashion in overtime. Conventional wisdom would say that Boise State should blow Utah out in this game, but I am smelling a letdown for the Broncos, who will be disappointed that they missed out on the BCS.
Prediction: Utah 38 Boise State 35
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy Vs San Diego State
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Navy has built a pretty good football program over the last decade. They usually are good enough to be ranked near the bottom of the top 25 polls, and their option-run attack is always in the top 10 in the country.
The Aztecs have a wide-open passing attack that ranked 11th in the country in 2010 (297.0 yards per game). That passing attack has helped them put up a lot of points this season (35.0 per game), but will it be enough to hang with Navy's running game?
Prediction: Navy 29 San Diego State 24
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii Vs Tulsa
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This game has shootout written all over it. The Rainbows ranked ninth in FBS in scoring (39.9 per game) and Tulsa finished 10th (39.7). Both defenses are pretty bad, so expect a high scoring affair between these two high-powered offenses.
Prediction: Hawaii 55 Tulsa 38
Little Caesars Bowl: Florida International Vs Toledo
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Neither team is very good outside their own conference, Toledo was 1-3 outside the MAC, and FIU went winless against teams not in the Sun Belt. I will go with the FIU running attack as the difference in the game.
Prediction: FIU 28 Toledo 17
Independence Bowl: Air Force Vs Georgia Tech
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If you like running, this is the game for you. These two teams rank first and second, respectively, in FBS in rush yards per game. The Yellow Jackets average 327 yards on the ground, while Air Force gets nearly 318 per game on the ground.
Air Force has the more potent offensive attack, ranking 32nd in the country in scoring, and their defense is a little bit stronger then the Yellow Jackets.
Prediction: Air Force 34 Georgia Tech 24
Champs Sports Bowl: West Virginia Vs NC State
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West Virginia just missed out on the Big East BCS berth when UConn defeated South Florida in the last game of the season. Now they bring their dominant defense and four game win streak into the Champs Sports Bowl against NC State.
The Wolfpack have been up-and-down this year. They started out 4-0 but would finish 4-4. For them to win this game, they will have to establish the pass, since their running game is non-existent, against the second best scoring defense in the country.
Prediction: West Virginia 23 NC State 10
Insight Bowl: Missouri Vs Iowa
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For a week, back in October, Missouri was one of the top teams in the country. They had just beaten then-top ranked Oklahoma and could have staked their claim to the Big XII title with a win the next week against Nebraska. Unfortunately, the Tigers stumbled in that game and the next game against Texas Tech. Their offense has been inconsistent all year, but their defense is one of the best in the country.
Iowa is a lot like Missouri, inconsistent offense with a really good defense. This game could end up being one of the lowest scoring games of the bowl season. Iowa did stumble at the end of the year losing their last three, including games to Northwestern and Minnesota.
Prediction: Missouri 23 Iowa 9
Military Bowl: East Carolina Vs Maryland
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East Carolina plays one way: throw the ball and outscore the opponent. They are one of the best passing teams in the country, seventh in FBS (319.3 yards per game). They have one of the worst defenses in the country, 118th overall (43.4 points allowed per game).
Maryland is not great in any one area, but they are a lot better than East Carolina on the defensive side of the ball. As long as they don't try and match East Carolina point-for-point, they will be fine. The Pirates porous defense will be their undoing in the Military Bowl.
Prediction: Maryland 30 East Carolina 24
Texas Bowl: Illinois Vs Baylor
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The Bears put together a very surprising year; they were 7-2 and ranked in the polls once upon a time. They finished the year with three straight losses, all against ranked teams. They are solid on offense, ranking in the top 30 in passing, rushing, and points per game. The defense has given up a lot of points this year (29.8 per game).
Illinois needs to establish their great running game against a weak Baylor defense and pound the ball down their throat. If they can do that and keep Baylor's offense on the sideline, they will be successful in the Texas Bowl.
Prediction: Illinois 34 Baylor 30
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State Vs Arizona
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Given the Cowboys style of play, this game could be a blowout or it could be a shootout. Oklahoma State has a great offense, second in pass yards (354.7) and third in scoring (44.9). They have a mediocre defense that has let them down in their biggest games, against Oklahoma and Nebraska.
Arizona has fallen on tough times this year. They have lost four straight games to finish at 7-5, including bad losses to USC and Arizona State. Like Oklahoma State, the Wildcats have one of the best passing games in the country. If they can get a consistent rhythm, this game could be a close shootout between two really good offenses. If they can't, this game will be over before it begins.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 50 Arizona 45
Armed Forces Bowl: Army Vs SMU
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Army runs the ball...a lot. They have thrown the ball 111 times in 11 games. Their bread is buttered on the ground. They will win this game if they are successful running the ball and can be effective with the pass on the rare occasions they throw the ball.
It's nice to see that SMU has been able to turn things around after receiving "the death penalty" back in 1987. This is their second consecutive bowl appearance, they defeated Nevada in the Hawaii bowl in 2009. They will need to spread the field and use their passing attack to establish a running game. Also, they will have to get a couple of key stops on defense to be victorious.
Prediction: Army 24 SMU 17
Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State Vs Syracuse
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Kansas State became bowl eligible the same way that they always do, by beating the I-AA teams that they schedule and getting a couple of victories over some Big XII bottom feeders. They are a hard team to really evaluate because of the teams that they play. Their stats are likely skewed because of their competition, or lack thereof.
Syracuse isn't a whole lot better, but at least they beat some respectable teams. Their defense has been stout all year long, against the good teams and the bad. They are essentially playing a home game in Yankee Stadium.
Prediction: Syracuse 21 Kansas State 14
Music City Bowl: North Carolina Vs Tennessee
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North Carolina was supposed to compete for an ACC title this year. Unfortunately, disciplinary actions against some of their best players ruined that dream. The Tar Heels have been good against mediocre teams and bad against good teams. They have a solid passing attack, led by QB TJ Yates. If they can establish their passing game against the Vols, they will be successful.
Tennessee won four straight at the end of the year to earn this bowl berth. They didn't beat any team of substance this year; their best win was against Kentucky at the end of the year. The once mighty Vols have certainly fallen on hard times lately.
Prediction: North Carolina 31 Tennessee 20
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska Vs Washington
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This will probably be one of the uglier games of the bowl season. In week 3, these two teams met, and the Cornhuskers completely steamrolled over the Huskies 56-21. Jake Locker was pressured all game, and he put up one of the worst single-game performances in college football history, completing four of 20 passes for 71 yards.
Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez has nearly a month to heal his injuries, and the defense is still one of the best in the country. It may not be the slaughter that the first game was, but it still won't be close.
Prediction: Nebraska 41 Washington 17
Meineke Car Care Bowl: South Florida Vs Clemson
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This will be a defensive game because both offenses are extremely mediocre, and the defenses rank in the top 20 in the country. Clemson has some talent on their roster and can play with anyone. They gave Auburn their toughest game this season, a 27-24 OT loss in September. If they can channel that performance, it will be a long day for South Florida.
Prediction: Clemson 27 South Florida 17
Sun Bowl: Notre Dame Vs Miami
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Miami has underachieved this year. They entered the year with high expectations and a preseason Heisman candidate in Jacory Harris. However, things derailed quickly, and Harris has never fixed his turnover issues. Now, the Hurricanes are looking for a new head coach and preparing for a bowl game. Usually, that's never a good combination.
When Notre Dame lost starting QB Dayne Crist for the season, it looked like they were going to miss out on a bowl game. The team was able to rally around new QB Tommy Rees and have played their best football of the season in the last three weeks to earn a berth in the Sun Bowl.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23 Miami 21
Liberty Bowl: Georgia Vs Central Florida
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Central Florida is a classic, old school football team. They win with defense and a solid running game. Their passing game is good enough to get by, and this formula has led them to a 10-3 record this season. The question becomes, can they contain AJ Green and the Bulldogs offensive attack?
The Bulldogs went 5-2 in their last seven games to become bowl eligible, including a 42-34 win in their final game against Georgia Tech. This will be WR AJ Green's final college game, and he will look to make a big impression on the scouts. Look for him to have a big game, even if the Bulldogs as a team are unable to break through against USF's defense.
Prediction: USF 31 Georgia 23
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: South Carolina Vs Florida State
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If Bobby Bowden were still coaching the Seminoles, this would be one of the more talked about non-BCS bowl games because it would reignite the Spurrier-Bowden rivalry. Instead, it's just another bowl game. South Carolina is coming off a beating at the hands of Auburn in the SEC championship game. Marcus Lattimore will have a big day as he ends his freshman year on a very high note.
The Seminoles didn't look to good against Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, but at least their game was more competitive than South Carolina's. Jimbo Fisher will try to get his defense back on track after giving up 44 points in their last game. Their offense is slightly better as a whole then South Carolina's, but they don't have a game changer at any position, unlike South Carolina, who has Marcus Lattimore.
Prediction: South Carolina 29 Florida State 23
Ticketcity Bowl: Northwestern Vs Texas Tech
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Northwestern was really strong to start the year. As things progressed, they became very inconsistent. Their offense would sputter along, and the defense was giving up a lot of points. Everything fell apart in the last two games against Illinois and Wisconsin; they gave up 118 points in those two games.
These aren't your older brother's Texas Tech Red Raiders. They aren't the quick-strike, high powered offense of the Mike Leach days. They are still a good offense but they aren't going to light up the scoreboard anymore. They did beat a good Missouri team earlier in the year. Like Northwestern, the defense has been inconsistent and gives up a lot of points.
Prediction: Northwestern 35 Texas Tech 31
Outback Bowl: Florida Vs Penn State
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This game took on a whole different meaning after Urban Meyer announced that he was leaving Florida after the Outback Bowl. The Gators have had a disappointing season, the worst of any Meyer coached team, but they are young and will play inspired to send their coach out victorious.
On the other side is Joe Paterno, who you couldn't pry away from the sidelines even at 80 years old. These two teams are very similar in that they have a lot of very good talent, but it is all very young talent. Next year, we could see these two teams meet in a BCS game.
Prediction: Florida 24 Penn State 20
Capital One Bowl: Alabama Vs Michigan State
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Probably the strongest non-BCS game is the Capital One Bowl between the Crimson Tide and the Spartans. Michigan State finished tied with Wisconsin and Ohio State atop the Big Ten but lost out on the BCS game because of their spot in the BCS rankings. Kirk Cousins is underrated as a QB, and the Spartans can attack Alabama's young defense to be victorious.
Alabama will look to bring momentum into 2011 by winning in the bowl game. Their defense needs to finish games better, but that is a product of experience since they have a lot of young guys on that side of the ball. RB Mark Ingram will look to close his career at Alabama (assuming he enters the draft) with a very strong performance.
Prediction: Michigan State 20 Alabama 19
Gator Bowl: Mississippi State Vs Michigan
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A game that will likely be more memorable for all the rumors about the coaches than the game itself, with Urban Meyer stepping down and Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen having worked on the Florida staff for years. Rich Rodriguez has been rumored to be fired from Michigan since the end of his first year. He has a huge buyout that goes down after the first of the year.
Michigan is really struggling coming into the game, losing five of their last seven games. Mississippi State doesn't blow you away with any one thing, but they are able to do enough to win games.
Prediction: Mississippi State 27 Michigan 23
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Vs TCU
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The first of the five BCS games kicks off at 5pm on New Year's Day. It may be the most intriguing BCS game, besides the championship game. TCU has put together an undefeated season, and they are one of the most complete teams in all of college football. They have the best defense in the country (11.4 points per game) and a top-five offense (43.3 points per game).
Wisconsin has been steamrolling teams all season long; their only blemish was a loss at Michigan State. Since that loss, they haven't scored fewer than 31 points in any game, including an 83-point game against IU and 70 points against Northwestern. This isn't IU or Northwestern though. TCU has a stout defense, and they have waited for this moment all year long. For the longest time, they were overshadowed by Boise State, and now they have their chance to prove their worth. Should be a great game.
Prediction: TCU 34 Wisconsin 30
Fiesta Bowl: Connecticut Vs Oklahoma
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This may be the worst BCS game ever. Oklahoma is a powerhouse team. They have great playmakers on offense, Landry Jones has really improved his game this season. They are so fast and physical on defense. They have shown some holes in their run defense at times. UConn will need to exploit those to have a chance in this game.
Connecticut is here because they were the best of an extremely mediocre bunch in the Big East. This conference should not have an automatic bid to the BCS; they have done nothing to warrant such a premium spot. Would you rather see this game or a Boise State-Oklahoma game? Boise State lost a game to a very good Nevada team. UConn lost games to Temple, Rutgers, Louisville, and Michigan. No disrespect intended, but Connecticut should just enjoy the money they get from this game because they have no shot.
Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Connecticut 10
Orange Bowl: Stanford Vs Virginia Tech
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Virginia Tech really turned things around after two losses to open the year, including that humiliating defeat at home to James Madison. Frank Beamer has his team playing very well. The team is clicking in every area right now. Offensively, Tyrod Taylor has become one of the most dynamic QB's in the country. Defensively they have improved by leaps and bounds over the course of these 12 games.
Stanford makes their first appearance in the Orange Bowl. They have probably the best pocket QB in the country in Andrew Luck. They have a great defense and one of the fast-rising stars at the coaching position in Jim Harbaugh. They have too much for Virginia Tech in this game.
Prediction: Stanford 30 Virginia Tech 24
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Vs Arkansas
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Another year, another Ohio State appearance in a BCS game. Say what you will about their championship game performances but you can't argue with the results they put up every single year. Terrelle Pryor really improved as a passer this year, completing nearly 66 percent of his passes. He still trusts his legs more than his arm, but he has shown he can pass when necessary. The defense is very strong, as usual, ranking third in points allowed (13.3).
Arkansas makes their first appearance in the BCS. They have one of the best passing offenses in the country (third in FBS with 338.4 yards per game). The running game will have to step up against the Ohio State defense so that they can't just sit on the pass. If they can't establish a running game, the offense will get eaten alive by this Buckeye defense. Arkansas doesn't have a good enough defense to make up for any offensive deficiencies in this game, so their offensive execution will be key.
Prediction: Ohio State 34 Arkansas 20
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Middle Tennessee Vs Miami (Ohio)
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Miami was able to win the MAC with a dramatic victory over Northern Illinois to end the regular season. That victory earned them a berth in the GoDaddy.com bowl. They get by with making plays when they have to. They aren't going to impress you in any area of the game, just getting a stop when they need it or a first down when they have to have it.
The Blue Raiders won three in a row to get into this game. They are very similar to Miami in that they won't wow on the stat sheet, but they do just enough to get a victory. They can run the ball fairly effectively, and they will likely try to set the tone for the game by establishing the run early.
Prediction: Miami 23 Middle Tennessee 20
Cotton Bowl: LSU Vs Texas A&M
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After a mid-season slide where the Aggies lost three games in a row. they have been playing some of the best football in the country. The defense has been really good and the offense has made strides these last six weeks.
LSU is going to use their defense to set up their offense. If they are going to be successful in this game, they will need to get consistent stops and give their offense good field position in order to put points on the board.
Prediction: Texas A&M 20 LSU 15
Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh Vs Kentucky
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Pitt has underachieved this year. They started out as the preseason favorites in the Big East, they had Dion Lewis at RB, who was going to be a Heisman finalist. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off and they never found a rhythm this season. That has led to the resignation of their head coach, Dave Wannstedt. If Lewis can have a big day, Pitt can be successful.
Kentucky has a win over South Carolina....and that's about it. They won six games, but they weren't impressive at all, except the Gamecock win. Their offense is good against awful teams and awful against anyone else. If Pitt plays like they did most of the year, the Wildcats will have a shot. If not, it could be an ugly game.
Prediction: Pitt 31 Kentucky 20
Fight Hunger Bowl: Nevada Vs Boston College
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Boston College will win this game on defense. Their offense is terrible, 93rd in passing (175.3 ypg), 87th in rushing (133.3), 109th in points scored (18.9). If they can stop Nevada and create a short field so the offense doesn't have to drive down the field, they Eagles can win.
Nevada won the WAC with their upset over Boise State. They have a great offensive attack, led by one of the best running games in the country. The offense scores a lot of points (42.6 per game), and the defense makes enough plays for them to win.
Prediction: Nevada 40 Boston College 20
BCS Championship Game: Auburn Vs Oregon
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This is the game that we have all been waiting for. The two best teams in the country all season long finally square off for the BCS Championship January 10th.
Oregon has the most prolific offense in the country. They averaged 49.3 points per game, a number that would have been well over 50 if not for a 15 point game against Cal. They are led by Heisman finalist RB LaMichael James, who ran for nearly 1700 yards and 21 touchdowns. QB Darron Thomas has improved as the year has gone on, he is more accurate and more comfortable in the pocket then he was at the beginning of the year. If Oregon can establish a pass, to go along with the running game they have, it will be difficult to stop them. They have a defense that doesn't get the credit they deserve because the offense is so good. They can pressure the quarterback and create turnovers, which will be the key to winning this game.
Auburn has the best player in the country, QB and Heisman winner Cam Newton. He has put together a historically great season, throwing 28 touchdowns and running for another 20. He is the most dynamic player in the country, and he is so difficult to bring down because he is so big and so fast. He is very underrated as a passer because people see those highlight reel runs. He completed 67.1 percent of his passes and is very comfortable in the pocket. The Auburn defense does have some holes in their defense; they ranked 54th in the country in points allowed (24.5 per game). If they can't contain that Oregon offense, Newton's job becomes even more difficult.
Prediction: Oregon 40 Auburn 38
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