Can Anyone Take a Win in Fontana from NASCAR's Big Three?

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There are two races left in NASCAR’s Race to the Chase for the 2008 Sprint Cup. This week, at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif., should give fans a preview of what the competition will be like in those final 10 races that constitute the Chase.

The three drivers I expect to battle it out for the Cup championship have three of the top four Driver Ratings for NASCAR’s Loop Data at the California two-miler.

Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are first, third and fourth. They have dominated NASCAR’s regular season this year. I don’t see any reason for that trend to end.

Johnson tops out at a DR (driver rating) of 114.7.

Remember back to the spring race at Fontana and day one (the first Auto Club Speedway race was delayed by rain and wet track conditions, before finally the finish was postponed to the following day) when Johnson and his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon dominated early.

Neither driver won that race, but J.J. is a two-time Fontana victor. He has the best average position of 7.0 and the top average finish: 5.3. Johnson also has the most Laps in the Top 15 with 1,630 for 92.9 percent of the last seven races.

Kyle Busch, who might just be the only NASCAR driver we would be talking about in 2008 if it weren’t for Johnson and Carl Edwards, has a win at California too.

He has the third best Driver Rating at 109.9, three top fives and six top tens, the third most Laps in the Top 15, third best Average Running Position and the second most Quality Passes.

Edwards won this year's spring California race.

He comes back with a Driver Rating of 105.6, six top fives and seven top tens to go with his single win. Carl’s only category leading Loop stat is for Green Flag Passes.

He is coming off a win at Bristol after bump-passing Busch—who led most of the Bristol night race. These guys have run up front most of the season.

Is There a Spoiler out there? Anyone? Anyone?

Two weeks ago, Edwards and Busch took turns dominating at Michigan International Speedway, with Edwards winning again and Kyle second. The top four in that first Fontana race were Edwards, Johnson, Gordon, and Busch. I see trends that are too hard to ignore.

Matt Kenseth is the spoiler in the top four California ratings.

Matt’s Driver Rating is second best at 112.7 and he’s a two-time Fontana winner. Kenseth has the best average mid-race position and has led the most laps—248, or 14.1 percent, of the last seven races at the track.

Who else is good?

Tony Stewart has the fifth-best Driver Rating—a strong 101.0—and the best Passing Differential.

However, he’s never been able to finish at California, and 2008 just doesn’t look like the year of the Smoke.

Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, and Kurt Busch round out the top ten in the Loop.

Kasey Kahne has won twice in 2008 on long, fast tracks. He’s won at Fontana too. But I can’t see him beating my top three this week.

Nope, it's got to be one of the big three. My pick is Jimmy Johnson with an upset special possibility coming from one of the Red Bull Toyotas. I’ll take Brian Vickers.