With Boise State's loss against Nevada, TCU has unofficially claimed the No. 3 spot in the BCS Standings assuming that they beat one-win New Mexico. Meaniwhile, the Badgers have been playing arguably better than any team in the nation. Their triple-headed running back tandem of John Clay, James White, and Montee Ball is unstoppable. They have combined for more than 40 TD's so far this year. Additionally, Badgers senior QB Scott Tolzien leads the NCAA in QB completion percentage.
You're probably wondering, what about No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Auburn? Or what about LSU? Or Stanford? Well, lets analyze this, one team at a time.
First off, Oregon at the moment deserves to be in the Championship Game. They've beaten three ranked opponents—Stanford, USC, and Arizona—en route to a so far undefeated season. Yet, they still have one more challenge: 5-5 Oregon State. That should be a cake walk right? Not so fast.
I'm not saying this will be easy; however, Oregon State has showed that they can compete with competitive teams (sometimes). In their four games against ranked opponents, they beat No. 9 Arizona, beat No. 20 USC, and were down by only a touchdown going into the fourth quarter against No. 6 TCU and No. 3 Boise State.
Yes, they have lost their share of games against weak opponents, but this year they have shown they actually play better as the underdog, and against Oregon they are just that. I wouldn't count Oregon State out in their game against Oregon next Saturday.
Who will win the 2011 BCS National Championship Game?
Secondly, their are two possible ways for Auburn to not play in the National Championship. The first possibility is that they lose to South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game. This result is not out of the question. With the slow starts that Auburn has had recently, if South Carolina can get an early lead and have a good second half, they can win that football game. In their previous meeting, South Carolina was up 27-21 going into the fourth quarter. Next Saturday, the Gamecocks will have a chance for revenge.
The other possibility for Auburn is that with the Cam Newton scandal, the NCAA doesn't allow them to play in the Championship Game. This is much more unlikely than the Gamecocks winning; however, anything can happen.
The other teams potentially blocking current BCS No. 7 Wisconsin from playing in the National Championship Game are LSU and Stanford who are currently ranked No. 5 and No. 6 respectively in the BCS Standings.
Here is where we come to a BCS rule that states that you have to be a conference champion in order to play in the National Championship Game. Therefore LSU nor Stanford would be eligible to play in the BCS Championship game. Even with Auburn and Oregon losses, neither LSU or Stanford are the winners of their conference.
With these results ensuing, Wisconsin (assuming they beat Northwestern) makes it into the BCS National Championship Game against TCU. Unlikely? Yes. Out of the question? No.