BCS Rankings: Ten Ways a One–-Loss Team Can Make the BCS Title Game
As we enter week 13 of the college football season, the likely participants in the BCS title game becomes more and more obvious. Auburn and Oregon have shared the top two spots in the BCS standings for the last five weeks.
If both win their remaining two games, they will likely play for the BCS title. But if one were to lose, how likely would it be for the Tigers or Ducks to still make the title game?
And for the fans of those one-loss teams ranked 5 through 10 in the BCS standings who think their team's chances at the BCS title game are tanked, fear not! Let me present to you how your favorite one-loss team can still make it to Glendale, AZ for a chance at glory.
So sit back and relax as this wild ride of crazy scenarios is unveiled.
If Auburn Loses to Alabama...
but beats South Carolina in the SEC Championship game. After the Alabama loss, Auburn would probably fall below TCU and maybe even Boise State in the BCS standings.
With a win over South Carolina in the SEC Championship, Auburn would deservedly jump TCU and Boise State in the BCS standings to face Oregon (assuming they win out) for the BCS title.
How likely would it be that Auburn could jump an undefeated TCU and Boise State? Only the computer's can say, but they would deserve it.
I will never be convinced that an undefeated WAC or MWC team deserves to play for a BCS title over a one-loss, heck even a two-loss SEC, Big Ten, or Big 12 team.
If Auburn Loses to South Carolina...
in the SEC Championship after defeating rival Alabama the week before, the Tigers can still make it to the BCS title game. However, I wouldn't realistically like the Tigers' chances to make it to Glendale, considering the timing of the loss. Those late season losses really factor more than a loss earlier in the year.
For Auburn to play for the BCS title, without winning the SEC, they're going to need Oregon to lose to either Arizona or Oregon State, and Boise State to lose to Nevada or TCU loss to New Mexico.
Like I said earlier, a one-loss Auburn team would deserve a shot more than undefeated Boise State or TCU.
If Oregon Loses To Arizona...
or Oregon State, and Auburn loses to both Alabama and South Carolina in the SEC Championship, while Nevada takes care of Boise State, a one-loss Oregon team would face TCU in the BCS title game.
Oh boy! And we're just getting started on these crazy scenarios. The moral of the story, just win and you're in, as long as you're undefeated right now, except for TCU and Boise State.
LSU Plays For The BCS Title If...
they defeat Arkansas. And now, ladies and gentleman, is where this really gets interesting. LSU is going to need some help to play for a national title.
Oregon must lose to either Arizona or Oregon State, while Auburn must lose to either Alabama or South Carolina. LSU then leaps Oregon, Auburn, and Boise State in the BCS standings to face TCU in the BCS title game.
Let me go ahead and say now that I don't think the BCS would be comfortable with a TCUBoise State BCS title game.
The uproar from a lot of fans of SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and even Pac 10 teams could be enough to finally put the final nail in the coffin of the mess that is the BCS. I sure hope it would.
Stanford Will Play For The BCS Title If...
the Cardinal can take care of the Oregon State Beavers and get some help against the undefeated teams.
If Oregon were to lose to Arizona and Oregon State, and Auburn loses to Alabama and South Carolina, while Arkansas knocks off the LSU Tigers, Stanford has a shot.
This would also mean Stanford would have to jump either TCU or Boise State in the BCS standings, unless one of those teams were to falter. (but how likely is that with their weak schedule?)
With the disparity currently in the BCS standing points, the undefeated teams on top will really need to lose multiple games to give a one-loss team a shot.
Wisconsin Will Play For The BCS Title If...
the Badgers take care of Northwestern. Oregon loses to either Arizona or Oregon State, Auburn loses to both Alabama and Auburn, and LSU loses to Arkansas.
Wisconsin also needs Stanford to fall to Oregon State this week, and a loss by either TCU or Boise State would do nothing but help the Badgers' cause.
Can The Ohio State Buckeyes Play For The BCS Title?
Yes, there is still a possibility that a one-loss Ohio State team can play for the BCS title, given that they beat Michigan in the annual rivalry game.
For that to happen, Oregon and Auburn will have to lose, preferably their last game. Arkansas has to upset LSU while Oregon State takes care off Standford. The Buckeyes would still need Northwestern to pull of the upset over Wisconsin.
It just keeps getting more unlikely as we go, but hey, crazier things have happened.
What About That Other OSU, Oklahoma State?
For the Cowboys to play for the BCS title, they must pull out victories over rival Oklahoma and their opponent in the Big 12 Championship game.
They, like the rest of the one-loss teams, will also need some help. Oregon, Auburn, LSU, Wisconsin and Ohio State all must lose in order for Oklahoma State to play for the BCS title.
What About Michigan State's Chances?
The Spartans have the toughest road out of all the one-loss teams in the BCS top 10. Being ranked No.10 means that at least six or seven of the teams ahead of you must falter for you to play for the BCS title.
Basically, the Spartans have to get the same breaks as Oklahoma State, as well as having the Cowboys also fall to Oklahoma.
Man! I'm sure it feels good for Auburn and Oregon to know that they control their own destiny in the race to Glendale for the BCS title.
During the existence of the BCS, we've yet to have a repeat champion and it appears that that trend will continue this year, unless...
Alabama Will Play For The BCS Title If...
Yep. You guessed it. The Crimson Tide still have a very slim chance to play for the BCS Title. If Alabama pounds Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and the Tigers stumble into Atlanta and are upset by the South Carolina Gamecocks for the SEC Championship, and Oregon loses their remaining games against Arizona and Oregon State, and every one–loss team ahead of Alabama loses, the Tide are in.
Like I said, the chances of this scenario playing out are slim to none. Not only would everyone ahead of Alabama have to lose, they would still need to jump LSU in the BCS standings. That will be tough considering LSU defeated the Crimson Tide three weeks ago.
What's Likely To Happen?
In the end, all crazy and off-the-wall scenarios aside, the most likely outcome is for both Oregon and Auburn to win out and faceoff for the BCS title in what is sure to be an explosive game between two high–powered offenses.
So, did I miss a scenario? Have one of your own you think is more likely to happen? Leave a comment below.