We are now one day away from the rematch between Paul Williams and Sergio Martinez. Williams of course won the first fight by a very slim margin in a FOTY candidate.
It was a fight that saw both fighters have little time to prepare for their opponent and that resulted in a fight that nobody saw coming.
It is a statistical fact that the winner of the first fight almost always wins the second fight. That is a fact that you can throw out the window for this fight because the first fight was on such short notice.
This is a fight that is massively hyped as it should be but it won’t be the repeat of the FOTY candidate we saw last year.
The question then becomes what kind of fight should we expect and who should we expect to win? This is a pick 'em fight if there ever was one.
I think both of these fighters are so close when it comes to skills that I really don’t know how to argue that one fighter will decisively beat the other.
Their chins, heart, power and defense are all about the same. I would say their speed is about the same but in a different way.
Williams has speed when he gets into his rhythm and starts throwing punches nonstop. When he starts throwing he can throw four or five punches before his opponent ever gets off.
Martinez on the other hand is just a fast fighter no matter what. He has speed that I rate very highly and as far as middleweights go he may be the fastest in the division.
Defense is an area that Martinez is slightly better in. Williams uses his offense as his defense by not letting you throw back.
Martinez is a cutie on defense and is just so slick that he can hold his hands low and you cant hit him. Power is nearly the same as both guys hit hard but they aren’t knockout artists by any means.
The style of how they throw their punches is much different. Martinez throws a slashing style that cuts fighters easily and can cause big problems for a fighter with a bad cutman (see Kelly Pavlik).
Williams throws a more thudding style that usually takes more than one shot to knock you silly but we have seen big power in the Carlos Quintana rematch and Andy Kolle fight.
These fighters are so close in skills that the fight is going to come down to how bad the fighters want it mentally and I think that Williams has more at stake at this point in his career.
He hates to lose and he proved that when he blitzed Quintana in their rematch and although he didn’t lose the first time a lot of people are questioning his win. He is going to want and erase that with a big win.
He also has the chance to win a title in a third weight class which very few fighters ever do. It would also give him titles from welterweight to middleweight which is a very impressive career feat.
There is also the little thing of having a potential fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. or Manny Pacquiao if he wins. They both seem like long shots but he will be a step closer.
If he wins the middleweight title he will have a much easier time making fights and may actually get to choose between a few different fighters.
My pick isn’t one with great confidence but I think Williams is the better fighter at this point and I pick him by a slim decision yet again.
This was originally published on www.kissingthecanvas.com.
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