Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay: One Month Later

On July 31st, the non-waiver trade deadline for Major League Baseball, the hottest story of the day was the trade of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers. Part of a three-team deal, the Sox gave up the future Hall of Fame slugger, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen, plus some cash, and in return received Jason Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Immediate reactions were mixed. Ramirez’s comments to the press and intentional slacking had many Boston fans ready for the split.

Some thought the Sox gave up too much, with Moss and Hansen being two of their most talked-about prospects. Some were optimistic about Bay, viewing him as a talented player bogged down in a perennially weak franchise. So, with just about a month past, how has the Manny-for-Bay trade worked out?

In evaluating anything in baseball these days, you need to be thinking with both halves of the brain. There is the Sabremetric side, where it’s all about the numbers. There is also the old-school side, which deals in realities that can’t be quantified, such as morale, momentum, and luck.

From the statistical perspective, the performances of Bay and Ramirez are similar, with the slight edge going to Manny. Ramirez has two more homers, higher batting average and OPS+, and three less K’s than Bay. Bay has more steals, less GIDP , more triples, more RBI, and two more at-bats.

Defensively, neither has made any notable guffaws, but the general consensus is that Bay has the significant edge over Manny in left field.

On the other hand, Boston has gone 16–7 since Bay hit town, holding steady at 3.5 games behind the Rays for the AL East and a couple game ahead of Minnesota for the wild card.

What’s more, all this was accomplished without Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, and with missed starts by Beckett and Wakefield.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have gone 11–14 since the trade, including a 2–11 stretch since Aug. 16. They have fallen further behind the Diamondbacks in the weak NL West.

Perhaps most importantly, while Ramirez is hamming it up for the press in L.A., actually running to first base and even stealing a base (a move that surprised no one more than Manny himself), he has been behaving rather well.

On the other coast, the Red Sox locker room is seemingly free of slap fights between players, assaults on aging road managers, and on the field, there hasn’t been even one intentional strikeout since Bay replaced Manny.

When asked, Sox players and manager, Terry Francona, minimized the effect that Manny’s nonsense had on things, but it is clear to even the casual observer that things are happier in Beantown.

After this season ends, Manny Ramirez becomes a free agent. The $25 million that he seeks may or may not come his way. Most agree that Manny is no longer worth quite that much, but if there is any truism in baseball, it’s that the money flies around. The Red Sox now have Bay’s contract and will most likely be paying the remaining $7.5 million for its last year, 2009.

Though the Red Sox sacrificed more than many thought that they should have, it’s hard to deny that they have gotten the better end of the deal, at least when compared to L.A.

For the other franchise in the trade, the Pirates, only time will tell what if any role the biggest deal of 2008 plays in their future.