I'm going to do my season outlook a little differently than I have done the past two years. I'm not going to go through and break down every game because injuries, schemes, and circumstances are never the same throughout the season as they are in the preseason. Instead I will pick the points of interest and call them how I see them.
The Team
The offense will be excellent. It will be able to get whatever it wants against many opponents, and even if the defense isn't much better, it should be able to win any shootout. Not much else needs be said. The defense of course is the concern.
The line should be much improved. The ends will continue to be the strength, and no one on the two deep will make Gator fans worry. They can go four deep at each tackle position if they wanted to, constantly rotating fresh bodies in and out. As it is, they probably won't go more than three deep at each, and the coaches are more or less happy with the progress they've all made. There should actually be some real push up the middle this year.
The linebackers are the strongest group on the defense with a healthy Brandon Spikes. Once his foot heals, they'll be the closest thing to a set-it-and-forget-it unit, with a great first line and capable backups. Some day, Dustin Doe will get the credit he deserves.
The secondary will remain a concern naturally, but not nearly as much as last season. Joe Haden was a quarterback in high school, Wondy Pierre-Louis never played football before his freshman year of high school, and Major Wright admitted he was kind of just playing center field without knowing fully what he was doing last season.
Those three have been starters in the SEC now, and along with Ahmad Black make up the first string in the back. Safety is thin, so losing Wright would be disastrous. Assuming health though, which seems to be a pretty big "if" this year, they will be much, much better. Urban Meyer calls them the most improved unit on the team, and he rarely gives out praise like that.
The most important thing is that everyone has the right attitude this year. Both the football team and the basketball team in their most recent seasons ran into the problem of assuming that showing up in orange and blue means you'll win. They didn't work as hard and didn't develop the camaraderie that the championship teams had.
Well, that has changed. Meyer says the group is a lot closer and they had the right attitude in camp. In fact, he has said the fall camp was the among the best he has had at UF, and his comments so far indicate he likes this group more than even the 2006 squad at the same time of the year.
For the first time since that game in the desert, intangibles are on the Gators' side.
The Schedule
As many people have pointed out, Florida's schedule looks pretty doable. Hawai'i would have been a better game last season, while Miami would be a better game next year. FSU still has three quarterbacks
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3 months ago
Solid analysis. I agree with you that the difference between 9-4 and 11-2 or 12-1 is a just a few defensive stops. Auburn came down to one stop (not on the schedule, but maybe an SEC title foe). LSU came down to one stop. Georgia came down to 1 failed stop and 1 late fumble (or 2 stops). Michigan came down to 1 stop. I wrote an article on Florida's 3rd down offense that outlines these facts.
If UF's defense is an average SEC defense, then UF will be a title contender.
from 3 months ago
It was Auburn's first drive of the game. The Gators force a punt from the Tigers' own 23. On that punt Jamar Hornsby ran into the kicker, and the five-yard penalty resulted in a first down. Despite forcing a 3rd-and-14 on the ensuing set of downs, Auburn drove down the field and scored a touchdown.
That more than anything is what gets me about that game. Add onto that a blocked field goal due to a missed block on the line and a fumble at Auburn's 28 in the second quarter, and you have a very winnable game lost. What aggravates me the most is that if the Gators win that game, they go to Atlanta.
from 3 months ago
Its amazing that Florida had a historically bad defense, yet it was still only a few plays away from an SEC title and possibly a BCS title game.
3 months ago
I have to say David you one of the few level headed Florida fans that I have run into. Good job and good analysis. Nov 1 is going to be a war and I can't wait!!!!
Go Dawgs!!!
from 3 months ago
I'm going to do everything I can to make it to that game. It should be one for the ages. Thanks for reading.
from 3 months ago
Bobby my man,
There are delusional, wack-jobs, in abundance, amongst both of FL and UGA's vast fan bases.Fans are just biased, i met a couple Dawgs fans the other day outside Alltel after a jags game, who calmly assured me that Florida had "no chance" of winning on November 1st, he literally was spatting tobacco, uncontrollably, and had holes in his apparel.How could he be so ignorant to think that the mighty gators are chance less, and he was to drunk(or maybe just didn't know), to get any of the players names right. Gator fans, of course, think/want gators to win, but UF fans usually understand the possibilities of losing to good competitors, these Dawgs didn't.
I think level-headedness is all relevant to who you are conversing with, sir.
3 months ago
I enjoyed your article. I was insightful and had good analysis. Do you think Tebow will be able to play the same physical game as he did last year?
Will we see Meyer incorporate Brantley into the offense the way he did when Tebow was a young player?
from 3 months ago
Tebow will continue to play the same physical game, just not as often. One of the biggest advantages to the offense is having a quarterback who can run over All-American safeties (see Landy, LaRon in 2006), and it would be foolish to completely give up that advantage.
A Tebow-Newton combo is more likely since Cam is even bigger than Tim is. He could take some of the pounding in short-yardage situations that Tebow did last season.
Brantley is more of a passer with mobility, kind of like a Chase Daniel or a Matt Flynn, so he doesn't really bring anything to the table that Tebow doesn't (unlike the Leak-Tebow dynamic in '06). I wouldn't be surprised to see Brantley beat out Newton for the #2 spot since John is a much better passer, but Newton is the more likely to see spot duty in non-garbage time.
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