The big fight is coming up this weekend. After much thought and reading other post, fan comments and watching shows like 24/7. I can't help feeling that Antonio Margarito is going to win this fight. Let me tell you why I think Margarito has a good shot. I will point out other reasons then the regular intangibles (granite chin and size) everyone has pointed out.
Three years ago, someone ask me what I thought about a Margarito vs Pacquiao match. I said without thinking, "Margarito has too much punch for him." Three years later, I still feel the same way.
I know Manny has done so much in the sport. He wins in a very convincing manner, but Margarito is not those guys. Right now, Margarito feels he has something to prove. A determined fighter looking for respect is hard to beat, ala Hopkins vs Trinidad or Tarver vs Jones.
Here are the reasons why I think Margarito has a good shot at winning:
1. Paul Williams: I can't imagine Manny can do more damage, throwing more punches and standing his ground more then Paul. Paul is huge and he gave as good as he took. Not sure if Manny can take as good as he gives.
2. Head movement: For whatever reason, people are thinking Manny has become this slick fighter with incredible defense. His offense is his defense. Manny has great feet but little head movement and that can spell disaster when a fighter keeps coming.
3. Power: Who cares who hits harder? It's a matter of who can take who's shots better. Margarito took shots from hard punching Cintron, Lewis, Williams and current Middleweight Champ Sergio Martinez.
4. Agapito, YES Agapito Sanchez! A few years ago, Manny Pacquiao had a brutal fight with Agapito and the fight got ugly. Sanchez (RIP) gave Pacquiao all he could handle. Manny was roughed up, knocked down via low blow and had Manny complaining the whole four rounds the fight lasted.
This fight ended when Pacquiao could not continue due to a cut. This for me laid out the blueprint on how to beat Manny. Agapito kept coming and coming making Pacquiao very discouraged and angry. A few fouls happened along the way but unintentional.
Sanchez's right-left combo rarely missed and when Pacquiao would fight back, so would Sanchez. He made Pacquiao look human and that my friends is something we have not seen in a long time. The key to beating Pacquiao is making the fight ugly, nasty and uncomfortable. You must be willing to take a few to give a few. You must fire back and keep the pressure. Antonio Margarito is just the guy to do so.
People can talk about Pacquiao's speed but Margarito has always been slower then the other guy. After inspecting his resume. I began to see he has fought a lot of the guys the big names didn't want any part of. He fought and beat the next big things in boxing.
Margarito fought faster, stronger and even bigger guys and was always competitive. I know, "What about the Mosley fight?" Well, when you take chances like Margarito does you don't win them all (that was not a shot at Mayweather, but take it how you want).
It will be an exciting fight, better then expected fight and with that said I have the up most respect for Manny Pacquiao. I wish him the best after this fight, but Margarito wins in 10 by TKO.