College Football Week 11: Picks and Predictions

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College Football Week 11: Picks and Predictions
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Each Monday morning, whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game, including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gain here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Locks and Upsets of the Week, available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically-based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their teams' game simulations for that week.


Game of the Week: South Carolina at Florida

With no signs of a leg, knee or ankle injury, one Florida Gator is leaning on a crutch leading up to his game against South Carolina.

From the makers of "we're taking it one game at a time" comes Florida center Mike Pouncey's "we've turned it into a one-game season." This cliche quote crutch is a popular accessory the final month of the regular season.

For head coach Urban Meyer, the Gators' one-game seasons of the past carried the pressure of reaching the BCS National Championship. This time around, the only reward a win over the Gamecocks assures Florida is a trip to Atlanta and a spot in the SEC Championship game. The Gators' glass slipper (available to teams with strong schedules and/or, some would argue, select SEC programs) broke weeks ago, and a crystal football is out of the question for the three-loss Gators heading into Week 11.

Up until last weekend, the South Carolina Gamecocks could hang their hat on the fact that they beat the defending national champs in Alabama. But LSU proved SC's early October accomplishment could be duplicated, and perhaps the Crimson Tide, though talented, may not have what it takes to repeat the feat. It was after their win over Alabama that Steve Spurrier, the ole' ball coach, returned to the front page of college football relevancy.

But his return to glory was short-lived.

Since their win over the Tide, South Carolina lost to Kentucky (1-5 SEC), beat Vanderbilt (1-5 SEC) 21-7 in a lackluster performance, beat Tennessee (0-5 SEC) in a shootout and got blown out by Arkansas at home, 41-20, last Saturday.

Florida endured its first three-game losing streak (Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State) for the first time in eleven years earlier this season, but have somewhat righted the ship with an overtime win against Georgia and a dismantling of Vanderbilt last weekend, 55-14.

The Gators have won 18 out of the last 19 contests against the Gamecocks, with South Carolina's only win coming in Meyer's first season at Florida.

Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" this game 101 times and South Carolina won 67.3 percent of the time by an average score of 29-24.

 

FUN FACT: Urban Meyer is 15-0 when his team blocks a punt during a game.

 

College Football Week 11
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 29.7 23 Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 70.3 32  
Clemson Tigers 33.7 30 Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles 66.3 35  
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 49.0 28 Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 51.0 29  
Maryland Terrapins 53.5 25 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 46.5 24  
Boston College Eagles 54.5 25 Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils 45.5 24  
Virginia Tech Hokies 61.4 29 Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 38.6 25  
Cincinnati Bearcats 39.6 26 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 60.4 30  
South Florida Bulls 49.5 23 Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals 50.5 24  
Pittsburgh Panthers 70.3 31 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 29.7 22  
Syracuse Orange 75.7 25 Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 24.3 15  
Indiana Hoosiers 5.0 18 Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers 95.0 42  
Penn State Nittany Lions 11.9 16 Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes 88.1 31  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 25.7 19 Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 74.3 28  
Michigan Wolverines 48.5 29 Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers 51.5 30  
Iowa Hawkeyes 86.1 33 Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats 13.9 19  
Ball State Cardinals 20.3 17 Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls 79.7 27  
Toledo Rockets 26.7 25 Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies 73.3 34  
Eastern Michigan Eagles 27.7 16 Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos 72.3 23  
Army Black Knights 41.6 16 Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 58.4 18  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 48.5 20 Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons 51.5 21  
Washington State Cougars 15.8 19 Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 84.2 32  
USC Trojans 33.7 22 Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats 66.3 30  
Stanford Cardinal 79.2 38 Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 20.8 28  
Oregon Ducks 95.0 43 Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears 5.0 16  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 5.9 15 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 94.1 35  
UTEP Miners 5.9 28 Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 94.1 45  
Vanderbilt Commodores 11.9 14 Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats 88.1 31  
Mississippi State Bulldogs 14.4 18 Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 85.6 34  
Georgia Bulldogs 23.8 26 Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers 76.2 37  
South Carolina Gamecocks 67.3 29 Boxscore
@ Florida Gators 32.7 24  
Mississippi Rebels 70.3 30 Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers 29.7 23  
Nevada Wolf Pack 64.4 38 Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 35.6 36  
Utah State Aggies 86.1 32 Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans 13.9 20  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 95.0 36 Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies 5.0 9  
Boise State Broncos 95.0 49 Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals 5.0 30  
Central Michigan Chippewas 56.9 25 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 43.1 22  
Utah Utes 86.1 35 Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 13.9 20  
Kansas Jayhawks 5.0 11 Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 95.0 39  
Kansas State Wildcats 12.9 16 Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers 87.1 32  
Iowa State Cyclones 41.1 22 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 58.9 25  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 47.5 30 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners 52.5 32  
Texas A&M Aggies 75.2 37 Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears 24.8 29  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 76.2 35 Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns 23.8 26  
Memphis Tigers 8.9 14 Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd 91.1 31  
Rice Owls 23.8 23 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 76.2 32  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 29.7 33 Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars 70.3 38  
East Carolina Pirates 59.4 33 Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 40.6 28  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 62.4 37 Boxscore
@ UCF Knights 37.6 33  
New Mexico Lobos 5.0 10 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 95.0 34  
San Diego State Aztecs 10.9 18 Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs 89.1 40  
Wyoming Cowboys 76.7 27 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 23.3 17  
Brigham Young Cougars 76.2 27 Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams 23.8 18  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.0 17 Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves 95.0 37  
North Texas Mean Green 20.8 20 Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 79.2 30  
Florida International Golden Panthers 22.8 23 Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans 77.2 35  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 55.9 28 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 44.1 26  
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