Unveiling New NFL Rating Systems

Unbalanced

The NFL’s passer-rating formula is unbalanced. Taking the stats of all 33 qualifiers* last year, totaling them, and inserting them into each component of the formula (but not adding those four components up) shows that, instead of an equal 25 percent share for each of the four portions, the completion percentage and interception percentage parts each represent approximately 31 percent of the formula, while the other two components—touchdown percentage and yards per attempt—account for a total of only 37 percent (see table below).

Completion%	YPA%	TD%	INT%
1.612	1.014	0.888	1.616

The new formula

Completion % = (Completions ÷ Attempts x 100 - 30) ÷ 25

Changed: Divisor from 20 to 25

Yards/Attempt = (Yards ÷ Attempts - 1.9) ÷ 4

Changed: Subtrahend from 3 to 1.9

Touchdown % = Touchdowns ÷ Attempts x 29

Changed: Multiplier from 20 to 29

Interception % = 2.375 - (Interceptions ÷ Attempts x 36)

Changed: Multiplier from 25 to 36

By tweaking the formula, each of the four components changed from 1.62, 1.61, 1.01, and 0.89, to 1.29, 1.29, 1.29, and 1.28, which in turn produced equal value for each of the four parts. After each component is found, the normal steps (as shown in the link above) are then employed to find the final rating.

New Quarterback Ratings

Name	Team	New Rating %	Old Rating	Comp	Attempts	Yards	TDs	INTS	COMP%	YDS%	TD%	INT%
Tom Brady	NE	123.5	117.2	398	578	4806	50	8	1.554	1.604	2.509	1.877
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	109.7	104.1	264	404	3154	32	11	1.414	1.477	2.297	1.395
David Garrard	JAC	107.7	102.2	208	325	2509	18	3	1.360	1.455	1.606	2.043
Peyton Manning	IND	100.8	98	337	515	4040	31	14	1.417	1.486	1.746	1.396
Tony Romo	DAL	99.9	97.4	335	520	4211	36	19	1.377	1.550	2.008	1.060
Jeff Garcia	TB	97.2	94.6	209	327	2440	13	4	1.357	1.390	1.153	1.935
Brett Favre	GB	96.9	95.7	356	535	4155	28	15	1.462	1.467	1.518	1.366
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	94.1	91.4	352	562	3966	28	12	1.305	1.289	1.445	1.606
Donovan McNabb	PHI	92.5	89.9	291	473	3324	19	7	1.261	1.282	1.165	1.842
Kurt Warner	ARI	91.1	89.8	281	451	3417	27	17	1.292	1.419	1.736	1.018
Drew Brees	NO	89.1	89.4	440	652	4423	28	18	1.499	1.221	1.245	1.381
Jay Cutler	DEN	88.0	88.1	297	467	3497	20	14	1.344	1.397	1.242	1.296
Carson Palmer	CIN	85.8	86.7	373	575	4131	26	20	1.395	1.321	1.311	1.123
Matt Schaub	HOU	84.6	87.2	192	289	2241	9	9	1.457	1.464	0.903	1.254
Derek Anderson	CLE	84.3	82.5	298	527	3787	29	19	1.062	1.321	1.596	1.077
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	83.9	84.8	154	240	1684	15	12	1.367	1.279	1.813	0.575
Chad Pennington	NYJ	83.7	86.1	179	260	1765	10	9	1.554	1.222	1.115	1.129
Philip Rivers	SD	82.9	82.4	277	460	3152	21	15	1.209	1.238	1.324	1.201
Jon Kitna	DET	78.2	80.9	355	561	4068	18	20	1.331	1.338	0.930	1.092
Jason Campbell	WAS	76.7	77.6	250	417	2700	12	11	1.198	1.144	0.835	1.425
Joey Harrington	ATL	75.3	77.2	215	348	2215	7	8	1.271	1.116	0.583	1.547
Damon Huard	KC	73.9	76.8	206	332	2257	11	13	1.282	1.225	0.961	0.965
Eli Manning	NYG	73.7	73.9	297	529	3336	23	20	1.046	1.102	1.261	1.014
Kyle Boller	BAL	72.8	75.2	168	275	1743	9	10	1.244	1.110	0.949	1.066
Brian Griese	CHI	72.3	75.6	161	262	1803	10	12	1.258	1.245	1.107	0.726
Cleo Lemon	MIA	70.6	71	173	309	1773	6	6	1.039	0.959	0.563	1.676
Brodie Croyle	KC	69.2	69.9	127	224	1227	6	6	1.068	0.894	0.777	1.411
Trent Edwards	BUF	69.1	70.4	151	269	1630	7	8	1.045	1.040	0.755	1.304
Tarvaris Jackson	MIN	67.8	70.8	171	294	1911	9	12	1.127	1.150	0.888	0.906
Marc Bulger	STL	67.3	70.3	221	378	2392	11	15	1.139	1.107	0.844	0.946
Vince Young	TEN	65.7	71.1	238	382	2546	9	17	1.292	1.191	0.683	0.773
Rex Grossman	CHI	63.9	66.4	122	225	1411	4	7	0.969	1.093	0.516	1.255
Kellen Clemens	NYJ	57.5	60.9	130	250	1529	5	10	0.880	1.054	0.580	0.935
Totals		85.8	85.5	8226	13215	93243	587	401	1.290	1.289	1.288	1.283

*To qualify, a player must have at least 14 attempts per team’s game played

Running-Back Rating

Each of the following formulas were modeled after the passer-rating formula, though most of the components for each formula don’t have approximately the same value; the components that I felt were more important for that position garnered the most value.

(For example, the Yards/Attempt element in the running-back formula had 7 percent more worth than reception percentage, as a running back with a high YPA is more valuable than one with a high reception percentage, in my opinion.)

Yards/Attempt = (Yards ÷ Attempts x 1.68) ÷ 5.25

Touchdown % = (Touchdowns ÷ Attempts x 164) ÷ 3.5

First down % = (Rushing first downs ÷ attempts x 255 - 25) ÷ 20

Reception % = (Receptions ÷ Targets x 100 - 42) ÷ 25

The same equation that was used to find the final passer rating was employed to find the total rating in all of the following ratings.

Because the formula is based on averages per attempt, LaDainian Tomlinson (315 attempts) finished behind players who had less attempts but better averages. Had Maurice Jones-Drew carried the ball 315 times, he would have finished with 25 less yards, two more touchdowns, and 12 more first downs than Tomlinson.

Only players with 140 or more attempts were included.

Running Back Ratings

Name	Team	Rating %	Attempts	Rush Yds	TDs	First downs	Rec.	Targets	YPA%	TD%	1ST%	REC%
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	122.3	167	768	9	46	40	55	1.472	2.525	2.262	1.229
Adrian Peterson	MIN	121.2	238	1341	12	62	19	28	1.803	2.363	2.071	1.034
Marion Barber	DAL	119.3	204	975	10	48	44	54	1.529	2.297	1.750	1.579
Joseph Addai	IND	117.7	261	1072	12	65	41	49	1.314	2.154	1.925	1.667
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	110.4	315	1474	15	75	60	86	1.497	2.231	1.786	1.111
Kevin Jones	DET	108.5	153	581	8	35	33	45	1.215	2.450	1.667	1.253
Chester Taylor	MIN	107.0	157	844	7	35	29	43	1.720	2.089	1.592	1.018
Ryan Grant	GB	106.3	188	956	8	36	30	37	1.627	1.994	1.191	1.563
Kenny Watson	CIN	104.2	178	763	7	40	52	67	1.372	1.843	1.615	1.424
Brian Westbrook	PHI	102.2	278	1333	7	73	90	120	1.534	1.180	2.098	1.320
Earnest Graham	TB	98.6	222	898	10	46	49	70	1.294	2.111	1.392	1.120
Maurice Morris	SEA	93.9	140	628	4	32	23	32	1.435	1.339	1.664	1.195
Jamal Lewis	CLE	90.7	298	1304	9	58	30	39	1.400	1.415	1.232	1.397
Willis McGahee	BAL	90.6	294	1207	7	56	43	49	1.314	1.116	1.179	1.830
Clinton Portis	WAS	90.4	325	1262	11	61	47	60	1.243	1.586	1.143	1.453
Laurence Maroney	NE	90.2	185	835	6	49	4	8	1.444	1.520	2.127	0.320
Ron Dayne	HOU	87.3	194	773	6	43	17	26	1.275	1.449	1.576	0.935
Justin Fargas	OAK	87.2	222	1009	4	52	23	32	1.454	0.844	1.736	1.195
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	85.2	202	1009	4	49	23	38	1.598	0.928	1.843	0.741
Reggie Bush	NO	83.8	157	581	4	32	73	98	1.184	1.194	1.349	1.300
Fred Taylor	JAC	83.2	223	1202	5	45	9	14	1.725	1.051	1.323	0.891
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	79.6	144	717	4	27	23	38	1.593	1.302	1.141	0.741
LaMont Jordan	OAK	78.1	144	549	3	24	28	34	1.220	0.976	0.875	1.614
Marshawn Lynch	BUF	76.8	280	1115	7	51	18	26	1.274	1.171	1.072	1.089
Frank Gore	SF	74.3	260	1102	5	42	53	69	1.356	0.901	0.810	1.392
Adrian Peterson	CHI	73.6	151	510	3	26	51	65	1.081	0.931	0.945	1.458
Selvin Young	DEN	72.2	140	729	1	22	35	43	1.666	0.335	0.754	1.576
LenDale White	TEN	71.7	303	1110	7	57	20	31	1.172	1.083	1.149	0.901
Steven Jackson	STL	71.2	237	1002	5	36	38	52	1.353	0.989	0.687	1.243
Travis Henry	DEN	71.1	167	691	4	36	7	14	1.324	1.122	1.499	0.320
Julius Jones	DAL	69.9	164	588	2	24	23	26	1.147	0.571	0.616	1.858
Rudi Johnson	CIN	67.2	170	497	3	26	13	16	0.936	0.827	0.700	1.570
Thomas Jones	NYJ	65.5	310	1119	1	55	28	34	1.155	0.151	1.012	1.614
Larry Johnson	KC	64.8	158	559	3	24	30	42	1.132	0.890	0.687	1.177
DeShaun Foster	CAR	63.3	247	876	3	42	25	35	1.135	0.569	0.918	1.177
Edgerrin James	ARI	63.3	324	1222	7	52	24	39	1.207	1.012	0.796	0.782
Cedric Benson	CHI	63.2	196	674	4	33	17	27	1.100	0.956	0.897	0.839
Shaun Alexander	SEA	60.0	207	716	4	37	14	25	1.107	0.905	1.029	0.560
Willie Parker	PIT	59.8	321	1316	2	49	23	31	1.312	0.292	0.696	1.288
Warrick Dunn	ATL	55.5	227	720	4	34	37	59	1.015	0.826	0.660	0.828
Totals		85.6	8751	36627	237	1735	1286	1756	1.339	1.269	1.278	1.249

Wide Receiver and Tight-End Rating

The touchdown-percentage factor of the formula had the lowest value of all four, due to the fact that too many of the top wide receivers reached the maximum amount (2.375).

Reception % = (Receptions ÷ Targets x 100 - 35.5) ÷ 20

Yards/Catch = (Yards ÷ Receptions) ÷ 6.28 - 0.75

Touchdown % = (Touchdowns ÷ Receptions x 23) ÷ 1.7

First down % = (Catches for first down ÷ Receptions x 85.5 - 30) ÷ 20

Plaxico Burress is ahead of Randy Moss because, even though Moss outscored Plaxico in the touchdown component by more than eight-tenths, Burress scored a 2.32 in that category—so Moss’s extra points went to waste because he scored so much more than the maximum that those eight tenths did not count.

Moss actually outscored Burress in all but one of the categories—reception percentage—but Burress outscored Moss by a total of 0.65, while Moss only outscored Burress by a combined total of approximately 0.39.

Wide Receiver/Tight End Ratings

Name	Team	Rating %	Catches	Yards	Targets	TDs	1sts	REC%	YPC%	TD%	1ST%
Plaxico Burress	NYG	129.5	70	1025	81	12	49	2.546	1.582	2.319	1.493
Randy Moss	NE	125.1	98	1493	140	23	74	1.725	1.676	3.175	1.728
Terrell Owens	DAL	117.5	81	1355	169	15	69	0.621	1.914	2.505	2.142
Reggie Wayne	IND	111.6	104	1510	111	10	72	2.910	1.562	1.301	1.460
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	111.2	100	1409	106	10	69	2.942	1.494	1.353	1.450
Santonio Holmes	PIT	110.9	52	942	115	8	42	0.486	2.135	2.081	1.953
Braylon Edwards	CLE	109.6	80	1289	153	16	57	0.839	1.816	2.706	1.546
Joey Galloway	TB	108.8	57	1014	81	6	37	1.744	2.083	1.424	1.275
Nate Burleson	SEA	108.4	50	694	90	9	37	1.003	1.460	2.435	1.664
Marques Colston	NO	106.5	98	1202	113	11	64	2.561	1.203	1.519	1.292
Greg Jennings	GB	106.1	53	920	117	12	37	0.490	2.014	3.063	1.484
Andre Johnson	HOU	105.1	60	851	86	8	39	1.713	1.508	1.804	1.279
Kevin Curtis	PHI	103.3	77	1110	85	6	49	2.754	1.545	1.054	1.220
Antonio Gates	SD	99.5	75	984	117	9	54	1.430	1.339	1.624	1.578
Donald Lee	GB	99.4	48	575	63	6	29	2.035	1.158	1.691	1.083
Hines Ward	PIT	98.8	71	732	84	7	47	2.451	0.892	1.334	1.330
Chad Johnson	CIN	98.5	93	1440	160	8	74	1.131	1.716	1.164	1.902
Anquan Boldin	ARI	96.3	71	853	99	9	43	1.811	1.163	1.715	1.089
Lee Evans	BUF	95.1	55	849	89	5	38	1.315	1.708	1.230	1.454
Dallas Clark	IND	94.0	58	616	101	11	37	1.096	0.941	2.566	1.227
Shaun McDonald	DET	92.4	79	943	85	6	46	2.872	1.151	1.028	0.989
Patrick Crayton	DAL	92.4	50	697	95	7	33	0.857	1.470	1.894	1.322
Calvin Johnson	DET	92.0	48	756	95	4	38	0.751	1.758	1.127	1.884
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	91.8	112	1143	148	12	70	2.009	0.875	1.450	1.172
Chris Cooley	WAS	91.5	66	786	110	8	46	1.225	1.146	1.640	1.480
Tony Scheffler	DEN	90.6	49	549	65	5	29	1.994	1.034	1.381	1.030
Justin Gage	TEN	88.3	55	750	87	2	45	1.386	1.421	0.492	1.998
Torry Holt	STL	87.1	93	1189	141	7	63	1.523	1.286	1.018	1.396
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	87.0	82	1130	101	2	51	2.284	1.444	0.330	1.159
Dwayne Bowe	KC	86.5	70	995	122	5	51	1.094	1.513	0.966	1.615
Bobby Engram	SEA	85.9	94	1147	134	6	63	1.732	1.193	0.864	1.365
Isaac Bruce	STL	84.0	55	733	87	4	36	1.386	1.372	0.984	1.298
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	83.5	51	728	77	1	38	1.537	1.523	0.265	1.685
Santana Moss	WAS	83.5	61	808	94	3	43	1.470	1.359	0.665	1.514
Derrick Mason	BAL	82.5	103	1087	88	5	60	4.077	0.930	0.657	0.990
Brandon Marshall	DEN	81.8	102	1325	170	7	70	1.225	1.319	0.928	1.434
Owen Daniels	HOU	81.6	63	768	94	3	44	1.576	1.191	0.644	1.486
Wes Welker	NE	80.9	112	1175	149	8	65	1.983	0.921	0.966	0.981
Jason Witten	DAL	79.3	96	1145	141	7	56	1.629	1.149	0.987	0.994
Deion Branch	SEA	78.8	49	661	85	4	30	1.107	1.398	1.104	1.117
Roy Williams	DET	78.1	64	838	97	5	34	1.524	1.335	1.057	0.771
Bernard Berrian	CHI	78.1	71	951	127	5	47	1.020	1.383	0.953	1.330
Roydell Williams	TEN	77.3	55	719	104	4	38	0.869	1.332	0.984	1.454
Kellen Winslow	CLE	77.3	82	1106	148	5	56	0.995	1.398	0.825	1.420
Roddy White	ATL	76.6	83	1202	156	6	52	0.885	1.556	0.978	1.178
Amani Toomer	NYG	76.6	59	760	104	3	42	1.062	1.301	0.688	1.543
Bobby Wade	MIN	75.0	54	647	83	3	33	1.478	1.158	0.752	1.113
Steve Smith	CAR	73.9	87	1002	127	7	43	1.650	1.084	1.089	0.613
Tony Gonzalez	KC	71.8	99	1172	154	5	59	1.439	1.135	0.683	1.048
Mike Furrey	DET	68.5	61	664	85	1	37	1.813	0.983	0.222	1.093
Vernon Davis	SF	68.3	52	509	85	4	30	1.284	0.809	1.041	0.966
David Patten	NO	68.1	54	792	129	3	37	0.318	1.585	0.752	1.429
Kevin Walter	HOU	66.7	65	800	135	4	43	0.632	1.210	0.833	1.328
Jeremy Shockey	NYG	65.9	57	619	93	3	33	1.290	0.979	0.712	0.975
Arnaz Battle	SF	65.9	50	600	104	5	27	0.629	1.161	1.353	0.809
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	63.6	55	646	167	6	35	-0.128	1.120	1.476	1.220
Ronald Curry	OAK	62.7	55	717	137	4	35	0.232	1.326	0.984	1.220
Michael Jenkins	ATL	60.3	53	532	105	4	31	0.749	0.848	1.021	1.000
Joe Jurevicius	CLE	60.3	50	614	127	3	34	0.194	1.205	0.812	1.407
Reggie Brown	PHI	58.0	61	780	159	4	38	0.143	1.286	0.887	1.163
Donald Driver	GB	56.6	82	1048	164	2	49	0.725	1.285	0.330	1.055
Ike Hilliard	TB	55.7	62	722	113	1	37	0.968	1.104	0.218	1.051
Eric Johnson	NO	54.9	48	378	63	2	19	2.035	0.504	0.564	0.192
Josh Reed	BUF	52.5	51	578	98	0	33	0.827	1.055	0.000	1.266
Mark Clayton	BAL	52.3	48	531	88	0	30	0.952	1.012	0.000	1.172
Marty Booker	MIA	36.4	50	556	143	1	28	-0.027	1.021	0.271	0.894
Totals		84.6	4549	58861	7423	397	2974	1.289	1.310	1.181	1.295

Offense and Defense team ratings will come sometime soon.