With the Penn State football season just days away, it's time for my game-by-game analysis and predictions for how this football season will turn out.
Going into this, I have had some mixed feelings. I feel that this is a team that should win at least 10 games, but with the questions about the coaching staff and how conservative they get in big road games—of which we have a couple this year—I fear for a possible eight-win season.
This would be a huge disappointment given that we have so much experience returning on both sides of the ball, including the top receiving corps in the Big Ten, and the entire offensive line.
This is an offense that many were down on last year because of our performance in big games. However, Penn State did score 394 total points last year (Ohio State scored 408), proving that they can be explosive at times.
The problem was our two lowest-scoring games were against the ‘The Big Two’ of the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan, including just a nine-point outing at "The (former) Big House."
With the return of the spread offense this year, I think things will be more like 2005, when Penn State won the Big Ten.
With that said, let’s begin.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
This should be a nice opening game for Penn State to finally apply this new offense to a meaningful game. This will also be a great way to start for Daryl Clark and/or Pat Devlin against a team that uses a mix of 4-3 and 3-4 defensive looks.
Coastal Carolina does return 21 starters, so this is a team with experience. The Chanticleers are picked to finish second in the Big South but should be extremely overmatched when they visit Happy Valley.
I predict a very fast start for this Penn State offense, as Joe Paterno likes to open up early in these early non-conference matchups (see Akron 2004, 2007, etc.). I think both Clark and Devlin should see significant playing time in this game with the fans getting to see how each can/will be used.
Penn State will score touchdowns in all sorts of ways in this game: Daryl Clark running and throwing, Stephon Green returning a kick, Evan Royster running the ball, and let’s throw in an interception and a big start for what should be a big season for Anthony Scirrotto.
In the end, Penn State will win this game, 49-3.
Oregon State Beavers
Week Two brings the Oregon State Beavers of the Pac-10 into Beaver Stadium. This is a team that finished 9-4 last year and was in the middle of the pack in the Pac-10. However, only three starters from last year’s team return for the 2008 campaign. OSU will be relying on junior college transfers on defense who do have some college experience.
Lyle Moevao has proven to be a reliable starter at QB for the Beavers after stepping in late in the season in 2007 and going 4-0. The main concern on the offensive side of the ball is replacing running back Yvenson Bernard. Depth at the offensive line should help the Beavers' running back by committee strategy early in the season.
Author Poll
Penn State will finish with how many wins?
Author Poll Results
Penn State will finish with how many wins?
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9
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10
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11
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12
- Total votes: 6
20 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Mitch at sportschatplace.com 10 months ago
Pretty thorough as far as the games are concerned but what about the QB or lack of? Does that scare you that Morelli was pretty hideous the past 2 seasons yet last year none of the back ups really saw the field much, were they that green. Personally I don't get it. I like Joe Pa but I have to say PSU is just a middle of the pack team and really has been for quite some time. Even the year they went to the OB they played a weak FSU team that got there by winning in a major upset in the ACC title game.
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Paul Salman 10 months ago
AM was not hideous but he did not live up to what he was billed as. With that said, they still had two solid years 9 wins each and 2 bowl wins. Not exactly what we want/expect but this year the same team returns with 2QBs who are proving to be better the AM was already. Who knows what happens on the field but this team one 9 games in spite of AM at QB for 2 years. I think the same team now can win 10 or more with a more mobile QB. The defense will be great and will keep us in games if the offense continues to struggle, which I don't think it will.
As for the Orange Bowl year, we did still go 10-1 to get to the Orange Bowl and won the big ten and beat Ohio State.
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Jason Barczy 10 months ago
I gotta tell ya, I'd be impressed if Penn State won 8 games. I'm thinkin more like a 7-5 season for the Nittany Lions. They'll start off fast with four wins but they'll lost four out of their next five. JoePa has never done good against a spread offense so the slide will start with the Illinois game. Wisconsin will just pummel the ground game down your throat, but you guys might win that one. Why does this HAVE to be the year Penn State actually beats Michigan? By the time Penn State plays Michigan, RichRod will have had plenty of time to see what works for his offense and what doesn't. I think the only way PSU wins 8 games is if they beat Wisconsin or Michigan but they're not going to beat both. Ohio State and Michigan State can both be chalked up as losses. MSU has constantly had PSU's number too.
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Paul Salman 10 months ago
Couple things. First of all there is no reason to believe this team takes a step back from the last two 9 win seasons. The ENTIRE team comes back with both lines fully intact and we all know thats where games are won. Second, not sure where you got MSU having PSU's number. PSU has only lost to MSU 2 times since 2002 including when PSU beat MSU in 2004 when Penn State had its worst season ever. MSU NEVER has PSU's number, not even in this decade that PSU hasn't been the PENN STATE of the 70s 80s and 90s. Not sure where you are getting that info. Seems like just a blind statement by a PSU hater to me.
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David Houser 10 months ago
thats the dumbest thing ive ever heard
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JB Law 10 months ago
I will have to disagree with Jason. This prediction is going to hold up to what the end of the year looks like for PSU. I think PSU will upset OSU!!! but will find a loss in season and bowl
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Paul Salman 10 months ago
What is the dumbest? Jason's comment or mine in response.
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Dan Alexandre 10 months ago
I like it overall but I have just 2 comments.
1- I think the Syracuse game will be a lot closer than you're saying. I think it'll be a situation where we're ahead the whole game but we never quite fully put them away until late in the 4th quarter.
2- I also think we're gonna drop another one on the road.... which one? Take your pick, Purdue like you said is a trap game, Wisconsin isn't gonna be easy, and even Iowa has been able to give some teams headaches.
I would love 11-1 (or with a huge game in Columbus, 12-0) but I think 10-2 is a little more realistic.
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Mykal Ambrose 10 months ago
Personally, I like his prediction. While I'd love to see 12-0 or 11-1, or even 10-2, I think they're gonna just end up with a 9-3 or regretfully 8-4 record, due to some slip ups. Only because, while I do like both Clark and Devlin, I don't have as much faith in them as you. These other teams will be watching exactly to see how and what Clark is capable of, and have a gameplan set for when they face him. Last year against Ohio State, I smelled that upset from the meager 20 miles I live from there, but it was like the PSU squad just gave up, and that late INT for a TD didn't help matters, but that game was hella closer then the score lead on. I don't think it'll be Wisconsin to trip them up, but Painter is someone to watch out for, and I'm not to keen with them boys from the cornfields. If PSU can keep the mental errors and bad timed mistakes to a minimum, I can easily see them taking the Big Ten this year. I think the stage and tempo will be set once this Purdue game is behind us, as that seems to be the first, real challenge. As for that whole MSU having PSU's number? Yeah, that dude's on some serious crack.. I'll be in those stands, with the other 107,281 people screaming for that 12-0 season!!
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CdRCODY 10 months ago
Paul~
I think you are SERIOUSLY underestimating Oregon State. Firstly, they were Third in the Pac-10 last year (and a couple key plays from finishing much higher) not in the middle of the pack. You failed to mention they get back All American receiver and return man Sammie Stroughter, and have both talent and depth to replace Bernard. Ryan McCants is a bruising back with speed, and true Freshman Jaquizz Rogers will turn heads, and make a serious run for FOY in the Pac 10 this year. The receiving corp is solid if not spectacular, and I will guarntee a couple big plays with speedy receivers flat running by folks!
As far as losing depth and experience on the Defensive side of the ball, true we lost 7 who contributed to 44 sacks, but, and it's a BIG but, our two returning Defensive Ends have 19 sacks between them. No End combination in the nation has more. Our interior is BIG...and strong...and deep. Rotation at the D-line is a tenent of the system and will continue this year. The majority of the Linebacker corp has serious game experience, and they're deep and fast. Our Defensive Backfield is a strenght, with their leader, a John Lynch like Hitman, reporting in 10 pounds ligther and sub 4.4 fast. The corners are quality in coverage, and used to playing in the pass happy Pac 10.
My Orange Colored glasses aren't dark enough to guarntee a win as Beaver stadium is a tough place to play, and the Beaver's have an unfortunate history of starting slow, but the Lions better bring their A game. A 38-10 blow it is a joke, though, and I will gurantee that this will be a dogfight as the Orange and Black is looking shed the "slow starter" tag and make a national name for a quality program.
I see concerns for Penn State at not only the QB position, but with your D-line. Your "warm-up" game the week before is only going to show that you can beat up on a slower, smaller opponent, and won't leave you ready to face a fast, motivated D1 team.
I, and the rest of Beaver Nation, have had this game on the scope since the schedule was released.......we can't WAIT!!
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Paul Salman 10 months ago
Oregon St was solid...LAST YEAR. You have lost 14 starters of that 9-4 team that finished third in the pac 10. Org St has taken a step back while the pac 10 is getting better. Here is an exerpt from Scout.com preview for your beavers. Again not taking them lightly as I always worry about how the game will play out, but i am pretty confident the lions handle their business at home vs. Org State. As always I could be wrong.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/753704.html : The Beavers were clearly built for last year. Now what?
Mike Riley has quietly had a steady run in his second stint in Corvallis, but the coach and his kids are staring at a rebuilding season after losing top rusher Yvenson Bernard and each member of the front seven of a terrific defense. While that doesn’t mean the Beavers are automatically going to go in the tank, in an improved Pac 10, and step back could appear to be major.
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Jeff Contizano 10 months ago
Oregon State has much more depth at the RB position this year, as Cody mentioned. I don't see it as a 38-10 blowout either, it will be a much closer game considering the offensive talent coming into beaver stadium. 31-28, 27-21, or something along those lines. Oh, and as much as I love Penn State (being a Pittsburgh native.. Pitt has never really done well), I can't see them winning 11 games, maybe 9. I just don't see it, I don't know why, but they seem to slip. If Clark can play like Robinson did in 2005, then I think they can pull it off. I really hope they do well, its fitting for Coach Paterno and for the program after all the garbage in the offseason.
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Paul Salman 10 months ago
Loss to stanford? OUCH!
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Jeff Contizano 10 months ago
Stanford is a much better team this year. And OSU would've tied the game had they not fumbled it out of bounds into the end zone lol.
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Paul Salman 9 months ago
How did that game for you?
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Jeff Contizano 9 months ago
Yeah I won't give any excuses, Penn State is very good this year. However, I'd wish they would be hot in the middle of the season, or near the end, rather than the beginning. Still, I'm amazed they've been able to do what they've done with the problems off the field. If they can play like this all year, they will be in the national championship game.
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Paul Salman 9 months ago
Thank you for that win last night!
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Jeff Contizano 9 months ago
Haha I suppose that may have helped you out a bit!!
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Mykal Ambrose 9 months ago
Ok.. so.. wait.. I'm lost...
PSU blows out Oregon State..
Oregon State upsets USC...
USC dominates Ohio State...
So.. does that mean..?
Actually.. forget it..
I'm not saying anything.. cause I refuse to be the jinx..
I knew they'd do good this year but so far.. it's beyond my own expectations..
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Mykal Ambrose 9 months ago
Ok.. so.. wait.. I'm lost...
PSU blows out Oregon State..
Oregon State upsets USC...
USC dominates Ohio State...
So.. does that mean..?
Actually.. forget it..
I'm not saying anything.. cause I refuse to be the jinx..
I knew they'd do good this year but so far.. it's beyond my own expectations..
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