9 to 5: Sizing Up the Remaining NFC Wild Card Contenders

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9 to 5: Sizing Up the Remaining NFC Wild Card Contenders

Icon Sports MediaWe're finally seeing some teams start to drop from contention for the NFC Wild Card spots.

The Vikings' Monday night win buried the Bears, Lions, Eagles, and Cardinals.

With two weeks to go, there are five teams—Washington, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, and the New York Giants—still in contention for the last two spots. And there are nine games that will decide how it all shakes out.

Assuming no ties, there are exactly 512 ways those nine games could collectively finish. That's a lot to sort through to determine what gets a team into the playoffs.

But that's where ChanceBot comes in.

When I built the simulation engine that drives ChanceBot.com, I did so with Week 16 in mind. ChanceBot is an ideal tool for plowing through all the possibilities for the remainder of the season—and untangling which scenarios benefit each team.

Here, then, is ChanceBot's analysis of all 512 remaining scenarios of consequence in the NFC. I have summarized where possible to avoid listing each specific scenario. The values in parentheses show ChanceBot's estimated probability of each team's making the playoffs...

(Note, thanks to Richard Weyhe for pointing out a few things that needed to be corrected or added. Apparently I am not as smart as the Bot.) 

 

NY Giants (92.44%)

Win one game;

or

Minnesota beats Washington and New Orleans loses one game;

or

any of the following outcome sets:

Dallas defeats Washington, New Orleans defeats Chicago, Philadelphia defeats New Orleans, Minnesota defeats Denver, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Dallas defeats Washington, Chicago defeats New Orleans, Philadelphia defeats New Orleans, Minnesota defeats Denver, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Dallas defeats Washington, Chicago defeats New Orleans, New Orleans defeats Philadelphia, Minnesota defeats Denver, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Dallas defeats Washington, New Orleans defeats Chicago, Philadelphia defeats New Orleans, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Washington defeats Dallas, New Orleans defeats Chicago, Philadelphia defeats New Orleans, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Dallas defeats Washington, Chicago defeats New Orleans, Philadelphia defeats New Orleans, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Washington defeats Dallas, Chicago defeats New Orleans, Philadelphia defeats New Orleans, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Dallas defeats Washington, New Orleans defeats Chicago, New Orleans defeats Philadelphia, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Dallas defeats Washington, Chicago defeats New Orleans, New Orleans defeats Philadelphia, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

Washington defeats Dallas, Chicago defeats New Orleans, New Orleans defeats Philadelphia, Denver defeats Minnesota, Washington defeats Minnesota;

 

Minnesota (71.77%)

Win two;

or

Win over Washington and the NY Giants lose two games;

or

Win over Washington and one loss by New Orleans;

or

Win over Denver plus Washington loses to Dallas plus two losses by the Giants and one loss by New Orleans.

 

New Orleans (18.02%)

Win two and Minnesota loses one;

or

Win one, Minnesota loses two, Washington loses one and Carolina loses one.

 

Washington (17.37%)

Win two and either New Orleans loses one or the Giants lose two;

or

Win over Minnesota, New Orleans loses two, Carolina loses one, and Denver defeats Minnesota; 

or

Win over Minnesota, Denver defeats Minnesota and the Giants lose two.

 

Carolina (0.39%)

Win two plus New Orleans lose one, Washington lose one and Minnesota lose two.

 

Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at chancebot@gmail.com

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