Top Ten Fantasy Football Players -- 2008

You are at your draft. You have the fourth pick. LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Brian Westbrook fly off the board as the first three picks. You are trying to decide between Tom Brady, Joseph Addai, and Steven Jackson. You are tempted to grab Tom Brady. To get someone who produces so many points every week is hard to turn down. But you know running backs go fast, and that if you do not pick an elite back right now, you may pay for it later on. Good quarterbacks are available later in the draft. So you shift your focus to Joseph Addai. He was a monster in just his second year. He runs and catches the ball in one of the best offenses in the league. He seems on the brink of an amazing year. But then you think about Steven Jackson. He had a jaw-dropping 2006 year. If not for his terrible line last year, he probably would have been a great producer. He is the center of the Ram's offense, catching and running the ball extremely well. With an improved line and a new offensive coordinator that will constantly give him the ball, he seems ready to get back to 2006 form, or even better. So who do you choose? Addai or Jackson?

There are tons of tough choices in fantasy drafts. Cheat sheets don't help a lot when you are second guessing all the decisions you thought were easy heading into the draft. Circumstances change, and many things won't happen like you expect them to going in to the draft. Questions are everywhere. Who will slow down this year? Who will have a breakout season? Who will be a consistent producer? Who will be a bust? I cannot tell the future, and I don't have all the answers. Some things are just impossible to see coming. No one could have known Shaun Alexander would drop so low after two great seasons in 2005 and 2006. No one could have foretold that Ryan Grant would be the best fantasy running back in the second half of last season. Who could have known Adrian Peterson would lead fantasy running backs in the first half of the season?  Who could have known Derek Anderson would become an elite quarterback?

Fantasy seasons never occur as expected. However, some players seem poised to have great seasons. Some are very safe and make a solid pick. Some seem to be on a downhill path. Some will always produce quite well, but never spectacularly. Looking back, some sudden changes in fantasy players could have been predicted. Some changes, however, occur seemingly at random, such as fluke injuries or a sudden opportunity for a player to become a starter. That is where depth on a team is important. If you have questions about a player, choose a solid backup. But it is still important to pick players you think will do well. Who you choose is based on your strategy. Some people, when heading into drafts, resort to safe picks that they know will do well. Others follow the hype, and trust the experts. Some people take the risks and hope they pay off. Some use their gut feeling. Usually a balance of these does best. Formulate your own opinion, but always keep informed of what is going on. If you think someone is going to have a breakout season, but he ends up doing terrible in the preseason and loses some places on his team's depth chart, you should rethink when or whether you should draft him. If you don't know much about a certain player's fantasy value, trusting the experts might end up best. If you have a gut feeling that someone will be a bust, resort to the safer pick. So instead of predicting the future, I will present ten excellent players that I think will do well. I can guarantee you that these will not be the top ten players at the end of the season. But hopefully I can hit a few targets and help you sort through the all the questions surrounding different players. So here goes ...

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

Pros: Consistency, Consistency, Consistency. Tomlinson is always either good, or great. He consistently produces great numbers every year. He can run, catch, and throw the ball. He is a touchdown machine. If you want a safe pick, choose Tomlinson. He may not be the number one back at the end of the season, and I don't think he will be, but he will be in the top five. He never seems to slow down. He is the center of the Charger's high octane offense. He is an anchor for a fantasy team, someone who will not go up and down. Yes, he is approaching the dreaded age of thirty, but don't worry, he doesn't seem to be wearing down. He has recovered from his playoff injury, and other than that, he is practically immune to injuries. He is definitely the safest pick. After seeing what Tomlinson did in 2006, no one can doubt him. True, he won't repeat 2006's numbers. But if last year was a down year, you know this player is special.

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