Tri-Nations Destined To Be Decided In Brisbane

I have learned a very simple rule in 2008 in regards to rugby:

Never count out the All Blacks in the Tri-Nations.

After being beaten in Dunedin by the Springboks in July, and then going on to be easily handled 34-19 in their next test match versus Australia, they looked all but done in the 2008 Tri-Nations. 1-2 with five points entering a home match versus Australia, followed by two matches on the road to close out, and things looked bleak for the men in black.

Then things changed.

The All Blacks responded in about as good of a way as a team coming off two losses could do, easily handling the Aussies in Auckland, 39-10, led by fantastic efforts by Dan Carter, Ma'a Nonu, and Tony Woodcock.

More importantly, the All Blacks avenged their previous loss to South Africa in Cape Town, oppressing the Boks all game long to the tune of a 19-0 shutout. Now, with one test remaining for the All Blacks on the schedule, they hold a five point edge over Australia.

Australia also looks poised to capture their first Tri-Nations victory since 2001. However, they have the unenviable task of attempting to defeat South Africa at least once on the road to give themselves a reasonable chance of capturing both the Bledisloe and Tri-Nations championship on September 13th.

With Habana out, and South Africa already hard pressed to put points on the board with him present (47 points, three tries in four games), it is reasonable to believe Australia will get the better of South Africa in one of these matches, which will lead to a situation rivaled only by the World Cup final in the Test Rugby world:

Australia vs. New Zealand for the Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cup, to be determined by a matchup on the field.

The All Black defense has been stifling in the past two matches, giving up only 10 points and one try to Adam Ashley-Cooper.

The All Blacks will also have a full month to prepare for the biggest match of their 2008, while Australia has two tough matches on the road versus South Africa before even the thought of the Haka can enter their mind.

However, Australia will have the home field, an advantage that has paid dividends to both teams in their previous two matchups.

My prediction for the final three matchups of the Tri Nations:

—Australia wins one match in South Africa and obtains a loss bonus in the other.

—Australia wins a close match in Brisbane, claiming the Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cup.

Australia: 4-2 18 points
New Zealand: 3-3 15 points
South Africa: 2-4 9 points