Big Ten Predictions for 2008: In-Depth Records and Bowl Matchups

I’m going out on a limb and predicting not just the final 2008 season standings in the Big Ten, but also pre-conference records, conference game picks, and projected bowl appearances.  I will even throw in a couple of projected bowl matchups.  I figure that there is no better or easier way for readers to decide just how off base I am.

Before getting into the details, let me preface things by saying that this is going to be a down year for the Big Ten.  Yes, I said it: a down year for the Big Ten.  Ohio State is going to be even better than last year, and Wisconsin is going to be a very solid team.  Sadly, the second tier is going to be really hit and miss.

I think Illinois and Michigan State are going to be good and even better next year.  Iowa hit bottom last year and will be better this year, but they still have a long way to go.  Michigan and Penn State are both huge question marks for me, mostly due to coaching issues (Rich Rodriguez has a whole new staff and scheme, and Joe Pa has…?).

I think Purdue is stuck in limbo along with Indiana and Northwestern.  Minnesota is going to be just plain awful.

Preseason

Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin run the table and are all 4-0 going into conference play.  This includes OSU winning at USC on Sep. 13 and Illinois winning their opener against Missouri.

Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Michigan State all go 3-1, which includes both Michigan and Michigan State beating Notre Dame.  Unfortunately, Purdue will lose to Notre Dame (and Oregon) and go 2-2.

Sure, there are plenty of cupcakes thrown into this preseason pastry case, but the Big Ten beats USC, Missouri, Pittsburgh, and Fresno State and takes two out of three from Notre Dame.  It's not as tough of an out-of-conference slate as the Pac-10, but it's every bit as tough as what the SEC will play.

Conference Play

The following is a list of each team, in order of final Big Ten standing, with their record, conference record, and projected bowl game.

Ohio State: 12-0 (8-0), BCS National Championship

Ohio State runs the table, beating (in order) Minnesota, (at) Wisconsin, Purdue, (at) Michigan State, Penn State, (at) Northwestern, (at) Illinois, and Michigan.  They do not play Indiana or Iowa.

I predict that the Buckeyes win the National Championship, but I can’t even narrow their opponent down to the SEC, Big 12, or Big East, let alone which team.  OK, my top two picks are WVU, due to a weak schedule, and Oklahoma because they just might be that good this year.

Wisconsin: 11-1 (7-1), Rose Bowl

Wisconsin finally puts it all together and is a year-end top eight team.  That's right: They will actually live up to their potential in 2008.

After starting the conference schedule by beating Michigan in the Big House, and then losing to Ohio State at home, they sweep the remaining six games.  In order, they are Penn State, (at) Iowa, Illinois, (at) Michigan State, (at) Indiana, and Minnesota.  They do not play Northwestern or Purdue.

Having their toughest games early, plus having the last week off, is not going to help their chances of beating USC in the Rose Bowl.

Michigan State: 8-4 (5-3), Outback Bowl

Coach Mark Dantonio gets his Spartans over the hump this year and back to respectability.  Javon Ringer will run for 1,500 yards and by mid-November will be praying for a 50-day rest before the Outback Bowl.  Dantonio and staff need to leverage this swing in momentum and the coaching changes at Michigan to recruit better in state.

They will beat Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Purdue, but lose to Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  They do not play Illinois or Minnesota.  This gets them into the Outback Bowl.

Illinois: 8-4 (5-3), Capital One Bowl

No doubt about it, Illinois is making a move to be a legitimate contender for the Big Ten crown.  Ron Zook is starting to lure good in-state talent, thus keeping it out of the hands of Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Notre Dame.  Juice Williams having a good year is key, as is bringing up a couple of young running backs.

Starting conference play at Penn State and then at Michigan is going to be killer.  They will beat Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn State, but will lose to Michigan Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  They do not play Michigan State or Purdue.  They will play in the Capital One Bowl.

Penn State: 9-3 (5-3), Alamo Bowl

Could this be Joe Pa’s last year?  Yes.  Given all the hubbub going on with the players' off-the-field “antics” and the fact that they have be idling for a few years means it is finally time for a regime change in Happy Valley.  I think the players sense, it and it will affect them somewhat on the field.

The Nittany Lions beat Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue.  They will lose to Illinois at home to kick off conference play, and then at Ohio State and at Wisconsin.  It's off to the Alamo Bowl for Joe Pa’s last game.

Iowa: 7-5 (4-4), Champs Sports Bowl

Iowa is this year’s Colorado, what with all the scandal in the clubhouse.  Let’s hope most of it isn’t true, and they can get back down to business.  They are certainly going to need as few distractions as possible this year, as Kirk Ferentz is squarely on the hot seat.

Iowa luckily does not play either Michigan or Ohio State this year.  They will beat Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue but lose to Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  This is a good enough effort to play in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Michigan: 7-5 (4-4), Motor City Bowl

This is going to be Michigan’s worst season in years—but a bad Michigan year is still better than most teams’ best seasons.  They have a lot of challenges ahead, and I think by midseason they will have many of the kinks worked out.  They lost a lot of talent and have a whole new coaching staff and offensive schemes.

They probably will lose to ND, but only because it is early in the season.  In conference I pick them to beat Illinois (only because IL plays Penn St. the previous week), Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue.  They will lose games to Penn State and Wisconsin, plus both of their big rivalries, Michigan State and Ohio State.

It is too bad they don’t play Indiana or Iowa this year, as those are ones they probably would win.  At least they get to stay home and play in the Motor City Bowl.

Purdue: 5-7 (3-5), not bowl eligible

Normally Purdue gets out to a fast start and tanks towards the end of the season.  This year I think they struggle through the whole thing.

I expect them to lose to both Oregon and ND in pre-conference play and Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State in conference play.  In-conference, their wins will come against Indiana, Minnesota, and Northwestern.  Luckily for the Boilermakers, they do not play Illinois or Wisconsin this year.

Northwestern: 5-7 (2-6), not bowl eligible

This is not going to be one of the rare miracle years for the Wildcats.  Everyone has figured out their offensive scheme, and they don’t have enough talent to outrun or out-throw their opponents.  The defense should be fairly solid, but not solid enough to hold their opponents enough for their struggling offense to outscore them.

Northwestern beats Indiana and Minnesota but loses to Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue.  They don’t play Penn State or Wisconsin this year, which is good, because they would lose in both of those matchups.

Indiana: 4-8 (1-7), not bowl eligible

I could be generous with this prediction, as they could just as easily head into the conference at 2-2 as 3-1.  The good news is that the Hoosiers beat Minnesota and don’t play either Michigan or Ohio State this year.  The bad news is they lose to Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, and Wisconsin.

Minnesota: 3-9 (0-8), not bowl eligible

The Gophers' new stadium cannot come fast enough to save them from being the Big Ten doormat.  This team is going to be bad and get blown out week after week.  Like Indiana, they could go 2-2 instead of 3-1 in pre-conference play, which would put them at 2-10 at the end of the season.

They win no games in conference.  If they had to play Penn State and Michigan State this year, those games would certainly be losses as well.