Derek Jeter: Slowing down or hurt?

On Monday, Joel Sherman in the New York Post wrote that Derek Jeter may not be a Yankee for life after all.  Sherman said that Jeter had gone from being one of the most productive shortstops to being "merely slightly above average." 

Sherman went on to say that Jeter's trend line was not favorable and that he projected to reach base less frequently with a plummet in extra base hits and steals.

Sherman pointed out that Jeter is 34 years old and no one can be sure the Yankees will resign him when his current ten year contract expires after 2010. 

Through Monday, Aug. 18, Jeter had appeared in 116 games this year and had 138 hits with a batting average of .295.  His on base percentage was .356 with 24 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 39 walks.  At this pace he is projected to have 188 hits if he plays in each of the remaining games.

In the previous four seasons Jeter played in 154, 159, 154 and 156 games.  His season ending averages were .292, .309, .343 and .322.  His OBP has ranged from .352 to .417.  He has ranged from 25 to 44 doubles, from one to five triples and from 12 to 23 homers.  His stolen bases during those four years ran from a low of 14 to a high of 34.

So is Jeter on the slide or is his lower production this year a result of his being injured? Or is he really lower at all.  This will be the lowest number of games Jeter has played since 2003 when he was injured early in the year with the Blue Jays catcher separated Jeter's shoulder as the Yankee captain was sliding head first into third. 

That year he was out for an extended period and finished with only 119 games.  He averaged .324 that year but only had 156 hits and 11 stolen bases as a result of missing a lot of games.

This year Jeter has also been injured.  He spent time on the DL early with a strained hamstring and was not full speed when he came back.  No one can say for certain how many hits or stolen bases that would have cost him, but obviously it affected him.

Then, after coming back, Jeter was surging when he suffered a hand injury and went into a prolonged slump considering this is Jeter.  If not for those injuries, Jeter would almost certainly have had more hits and more production overall. 

Certainly Jeter is getting older, but no one should fault him for being on pace to collect 188 hits and be near .300 again.  Sure he is a little slower at 34 than he was at 24. 

But Jeter has never been a classic speedster, has always been more of a situational stolen base threat than a threat every time he is on base.  Overall, his statistics are very close to on par with his career averages during a season when he has had nagging injuries over and over.

It is extremely premature to think Jeter may be in his final seasons with the Yankees, that he won't be able to play shortstop at age 36 or that the Yankees will not want to keep him after 2010. 

He is still one of the most productive offensive shortstops in the bigs and his defense has been better this year than in the past few years.  His fielding percentage is exactly the same as 2004 at .981.  The only year he has had a higher fielding average was 1998.