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Baseball: What the Past 6 Years Tells Us About October

Adam RadAug 20, 2008

The playoff picture is starting to unravel--just a little bit.

The L.A. Angels have the West all but locked up, being 28 games over .500 and the second place Rangers three games under. The Central race will go down to the wire, with the White Sox holding a current one-game lead over the Minnesota Twins. Both have a great chance to make the playoffs, and both would prefer to win the division rather than the wild card.

The East will be the most interesting race in the American League. Can the Devil Rays continue their outstanding run this season and secure its first division title in team history? Will the Red Sox be able to hold off the Twins for the Wild Card berth? Will there really be a playoff series without the Yankees? Imagine what ESPN would do if both the Red Sox and Yankees!? They would seriously have nothing to talk about, except how both failed miserably and both managers should be fired (Hey, it's ESPN).

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In the National League, the Cubs have the best record and look to be a virtual lock to make the playoffs. Milwaukee and St. Louis have the best chance to capture the Wild Card right now. The East has the Mets leading the Phillies and the Marlins have an outside chance, but they need to get hot. The D'Backs and Dodgers are duking it out in the West, with only a game separating the two.

Projected Playoff Standings

AL East: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: LA Angels
Wild Card: Boston Red Sox

ALDS: Chicago vs. Tampa Bay, LA vs. Boston

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: LA Dodgers
Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers

NLDS: NY vs. LA, Chicago vs. Milwaukee

Now, I'm not going to make predictions yet because how each team plays coming into the playoffs will dictate how it will all play out.

For example, last year, Colorado, as the Wild Card, won the pennant. However, they did have the best home record in the National League. The Boston Red Sox had the American League's best road record. Colorado came into the postseason having won 22 of their last 23, but their magic run ended when the Red Sox swept them.

In 2006, Detroit won their division and had the best road record and the Cardinals had the second-best home record. The Cardinals had the fifth best record in the NL, but ended beating the Tigers in five games.

In 2005, the White Sox had the best record in the American League and the best road record. Houston, the winner of the Wild Card, had the second best home record in that year, tying themselves with New York and Atlanta. The White Sox swept the Astros in 4 games.

In 2004, Boston won the wild card and had the second best home record in the major league. They thwarted off the Yankees in the ALCS and had the greatest comeback in sports history. St. Louis was the clear-cut best team in the National League, with the best home record; they also had the road's best record that year. Boston used the momentum of the ALCS to sweep the Cardinals.

In 2003, the Yankees won 51 games on the road and locked up the AL East with 101 wins. The Florida Marlins, another Wild Card team, had the third best home record and fought off the Cubs to win the final 3 games of the NLCS to advance to and win their 2nd World Series in their short history.

In 2002, Anaheim won the Wild Card and tied for the best home record in the American League. San Fran won the Wild Card as well and had the fourth best home record in the National League. Anaheim won a thrilling series in seven games.

So, what has the last 6 years told us about each team?

American League- If you have the best record on the road, you have the edge, but it doesn't hurt to win the most at home. Edge: LA Angels

National League- 4 of the last 6 years have seen the wild card team win and have an excellent record at home. Plus, the NL Central has sent a team to the World Series in 3 of the past 4 years. Edge: Milwaukee Brewers

Would it be ballsy to say that Anaheim and Milwaukee would play for the World Series in October? I think so, but history tells us there is a good chance!

World Series- Angels vs. Brewers. Angels in 5. Just a prediction :D

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