Who Will Make the Jump from GP2 to Formula 1 in 2009?

As well as the F1 drivers having to learn the new Valencia street race this weekend, the drivers from F1’s main support series, GP2, will also face the challenge of learning the track this weekend.

The GP2 series, co-founded by Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore, made its debut in 2005, replacing the old Formula 3000 series.

GP2 follows Formula 1 at all the European venues on the calendar, as well as having a separate Asian series, which made its debut this season.

All the drivers in GP2 all have one goal in common: to reach Formula 1. The GP2 cars are the closest to Formula 1 cars as they can get, and they represent a very good learning curve for all these aspiring F1 drivers.

Since GP2 started in 2005, some new names have made the jump to Formula 1 and have enjoyed success.

Nico Rosberg and Heikki Kovalainen went from GP2 to Formula 1 in 2006 (testing before a 2007 race seat in Heikki’s case). Lewis Hamilton utterly dominated GP2 in his first season in the series, prompting Ron Dennis to put him straight into the McLaren.

Nelson Piquet Jr. got a testing role with Renault and this season now has a race seat with the team.

The most recent F1 recruits from the GP2 series are Timo Glock and Kazuaki Nakajima. So as you can see, since GP2 started in 2005, it has been successful sending young aspiring drivers to the ultimate dream stage of their career.

There are two races every weekend. First is the long feature race, where all drivers have to make one mandatory pit stop. Then there is the shorter sprint race, where positions 1-8 in the feature race are reversed for the starting grid. There are no pit stops in this race.

The racing is always very close and entertaining and this season has been no exception. This season has also been very competitive, with nine different race winners so far:

The championship standings so far

1. Giorgio Pantano - 65 points
2. Bruno Senna - 58 points
3. Lucas Di Grassi - 39 points
4. Romain Grosjean - 36 points
5. Sebastien Buemi - 34 points
6. Andreas Zuber - 32 points
7. Karum Chandhok - 31 points

Number of wins

1. Giorgio Pantano - 4 wins
2. Bruno Senna - 2 wins
3. Alvaro Parente, Kamui Kobayashi, Romain Grosjean, Mike Conway, Karnun Chandhok, Lucas Di Grassi – 1 win

After 14 races so far in this GP2 season, it’s starting to turn into a two-horse race. Giorgio Pantano has put all of his experience in GP2 to good use this season and has been the most consistent driver and the driver with the most race victories.

However, Bruno Senna is now very quickly closing the gap, and this battle is set to go down to the very last race. It’s a very tough one to call.

After the top two, there is a very tight pack including the likes of Chandhok and Grosjean.

If one of these drivers can put a good run together, and Pantano and Senna have a bad weekend at some point, then they could yet join in the fight. However, I think it’s likely to be either Senna or Pantano who is champion.

This weekend, the GP2 drivers all have to learn the new Valencia track. F1 team bosses will be watching with big interest to see which of the aspiring drivers can adapt to the new track the best.

This is quite an important skill to excel at for these drivers, as if they were to make the jump to F1, they would race at a lot of new circuits they have never visited before.

The streets of Valencia has three very obvious spots for overtaking for F1 cars, therefore for GP2 cars which can follow each other more closely (due to cleaner air thanks to the aerodynamics) I am predicting a lot of exciting wheel-to-wheel racing throughout the field.

Some of the drivers can at times be a little bit too ambitious. With fewer margins for error than usual on a street track, I am expecting a few shunts and crunches. The safety car will very likely be needed in both races.

We are going to see some very exciting racing in GP2 this weekend. As for a prediction? As a brand new track it will be a tough challenge for a lot of the young drivers, therefore I think Giorgio Pantano’s racing experience may well prove to be an advantage.

I think he will win the feature race and extend his championship lead, however with the reverse top 8 grid for the sprint race, that could well be a very open race.

Who could make it to F1 next season?

So who is going to make the jump up to F1 next season? So far in GP2’s history, at least two drivers per season have made the leap up. Lets look at the top five drivers in this year’s championship table and analyze how strong their chances are and which F1 teams they have a chance of driving for.

Giorgio Pantano

Pantano will already be familiar to a lot of F1 fans. He drove for Jordan in 2004 after two strong seasons in the old Formula 3000 series, where he finished second and third in two seasons, respectively.

However, during this season in Formula 1, he really struggled to get up to speed and was comfortably beaten by teammate Nick Heidfeld. In fact, Pantano didn’t even last the whole season and Round 15 was his last F1 race in Monza.

Since then, Pantano has just been competing in GP2 for four seasons (including the current one) and took part in two Indycar races in 2005.

His progress in GP2 has gradually improved every season, sixth in 2005, fifth in 2006, third in 2007 and currently leading in 2008. He has won nine races overall in GP2, more than anybody in the championship’s history.

Overall, he has been driving well this season, has been consistent and improving all the time as a driver. However, despite the fact he could win the championship I think his chances of reaching F1 are slim. His disappointing performance in 2004 with Jordan seriously counts against him.

The other issue is his age. He is now 29 years old and teams have become more reluctant to sign any driver over the age of 25. There is currently an addiction to youth amongst the teams. Bourdais is the only one over 25 to be signed recently, and he has struggled, which is another bad omen for Pantano.

Timo Glock is a similar case to Pantano in some respect. Glock came to GP2 to find a way to return to F1 after a brief spell in 2004.

He was champion and got the Toyota seat this season. However, his form has been patchy at times (before that second in Hungary). Teams may also have this in mind.

F1 2009 chance rating: 4/10 – Pantano has become a better driver in GP2, but memories of his poor performance in F1 in 2004 still linger. The fact he isn’t getting any younger seriously limits his chances of a second bite at F1.

Bruno Senna: There is a lot of talk about Bruno Senna at the moment. The main reason for that of course is that he is the nephew of the late, great Ayrton Senna. Bruno is determined to get to Formula 1 on his own merits rather than trading in on his name.

Overall, I think Bruno has done a very good job so far this season. I think he has some star potential, although he is not yet the all-round driver. I also really like his friendly personality and maturity, and this is endearing him to many in the paddock.

Bruno’s first stop was Formula BMW UK, where he competed for a season and went straight from there to F3 for two seasons. In his second season, he finished an impressive third position with five wins to his name.

This is currently his second season in GP2. His first season showed some promise, although apart from one victory, he didn’t achieve anything else of note.

This season, though, he is a much-improved driver and is quickly closing Giorgio Pantano down and has momentum on his side.

His highlights of the year so far include a masterful drive in the extreme wet conditions in the Silverstone sprint race and winning the Monte-Carlo feature race. Both races reminded onlookers of his Uncle.

Senna has had six podium finishes this year overall. He has also had some bad luck, which without could have already seen him leading the championship.

He had reliability issues whilst contesting the victory in the France feature race and hit a dog in Istanbul whilst on the way to a points finish.

His chances of getting to F1 next season are very high, especially if he can clinch this season’s title. He has huge support from Gerherd Berger, one of the key men at Torro Rosso.

Berger is reportedly very keen to have Senna in the Torro Rosso next season and with Vettel heading to Red Bull, there is a seat being warmed for him. If he wins the title, then there is no reason to say that he got the seat thanks to his name. He will have earned it on merit of his good driving throughout the season.

F1 2009 chance rating 8/10: Bruno has impressed many this season and even if he doesn’t win the title, I am pretty sure Berger will put him in the Torro Rosso next season.

Lucas Di Grassi

Di Grassi only came into this season’s GP2 championship at the French round, but he has figured very highly, and despite not racing in the first three race weekends of the season, he has shot straight up to third position.

Di Grassi spent three years in Formula 3, finishing third in 2005 and winning in Macau in the same season. Di Grassi finished runner-up to current Toyota driver Timo Glock in last season’s GP2 championship.

As mentioned, he is currently third in this season’s championship, despite only contesting eight of the 14 races so far. Who knows how well he could be doing had he actually started the season from the beginning?

Having said, that the championship is still possible. However, he would need a good run and Pantano and Senna to have some problems.

Di Grassi is also Renault’s current test driver and under Flavio Briatore’s management. Having Flavio as your manager is a very good move. Alonso, Kovalainen, Piquet and Webber are all Briatore success stories.

I think Di Grassi definitely deserves a shot at F1; however I can’t see the Renault driver line-up changing, which would have represented Lucas’s best opportunity. Piquet’s raise in form is bad news for him. Also, I think Alonso will stay at Renault for another season at least.

F1 2009 chance rating 5/10: Di Grassi deserves his chance in F1, but I don’t think there is a seat for him next season. His best bet is to continue testing for Renault and hope there is a vacant space in the team for him in 2010.

Romain Grosjean

Grosjean is another of Flavio Briatore’s protégés and has started testing for the Renault F1 team this season. Grosjean enjoyed a huge raise up the ladder and in people’s thoughts after winning the F3 Euro series in 2007 with six wins and over 100 championship points.

Grosjean then went onto the brand new GP2 Asia series. Grosjean adapted brilliantly and completely obliterated the opposition in the series. He won four races and clinched the championship before the final round. This result got the whole of France excited, and he became the favourite for the main GP2 series in Europe.

Things haven’t quite gone according to plan so far for him. He has shown highlights of his known speed but not often enough. He has shown that he lacks coolness under pressure, too. In Spain he was leading behind the safety car and went wide at the chicane before the restart putting dirt onto his tyres.

The safety car came in, and when trying to defend his first place down the straight, he was over-aggressive and got a penalty. He lost what should have been a certain win. In fact he has only won one race this season; everyone was expecting a lot more from him.

Some say he hasn’t adapted to the new spec GP2 (the new spec car wasn’t used for the GP2 Asia series which Grosjean dominated) car this season as well as his rivals. If that is the case, it doesn’t bode too well for trying to adapt to a Formula 1 car.

Everyone thought he was a cert for Formula 1 in 2009 after his GP2 Asia performances but he currently needs to up his game. You are only ever as good as your last few races.

F1 2009 chance rating 5/10: Grosjean has been very disappointing in the main GP2 series and finds himself a long way adrift. His best bet is more Renault tests and improved GP2 performances to put himself back in the frame for a Formula 1 drive in 2010.

Sebastien Buemi

Buemi is a member of the Red Bull family and is competing for a seat with Torro Rosso next season, probably alongside Bruno Senna. His big progress up the league started just last season, when he came second in the F3 Euro series, scoring 95 points.

He only won one race, but his level of consistency showed through 13 podium finishes overall. This progress prompted him to join GP2 in the middle of last season and earn tests with the main Red Bull team.

Currently, he is in his first full season of GP2. He fared well in the GP2 Asia series and was best of the rest behind Sebastien Grosjean. In the main championship so far, he has consistently scored points even if he hasn’t always been contesting at the front.

He has won two races and four podiums overall. In my opinion, he is improving all the time but is not yet the finished article.

He isn’t ready for Formula 1 next season, but he deserves some more Red Bull tests. If he applies himself well, he could be a contender for the 2009 GP2 championships.

F1 2009 chance rating 6/10: Is making fast progress all the time and I think he has the potential to get a lot better. Far too early to have a seat in F1, though, but will get some more testing under his belt next season.

Other possible contenders

Outside of the top 5 in the championship Karum Chandhok has the biggest F1 opportunity for next season. However it won’t be a race seat. Force India boss Vijay Mallya is keen to have an Indian driving for his Indian team, but he won’t put Chandhok in the seat until he is winning races in GP2, which he currently isn’t doing on a regular basis.

Indeed, he has only one race this season. However, this victory and his other victory at Spa Francorchamps last season has shown that he has the potential.

He has to utilize it far more often if he is going to make it into Vijay’s team. He knows there is a seat waiting for him when he starts winning more races. I am sure though he will get plenty of testing opportunities next season for the Force India team.

Alvaro Parente has had a successful career up to GP2. He won the world Renault series last season and won the British F3 title in 2005.

However, he hasn’t had a great deal of success in GP2 this season apart from winning in the first round and podiums in other races. I think he has underachieved.

I can see him perhaps challenging for a place in F1 in 2010 if he can up his game in 2009. I think there is great ability there.

Final Summary

Overall, I think this is probably the weakest GP2 field in terms of talent since the debut of the series in 2005. There is definitely no Lewis Hamilton in the current field and I don’t think there are any Rosbergs or Kovalainens, either.

If Pantano wins this GP2 series, he could well end up being the first GP2 series winner to not earn himself a drive in Formula 1 the following season.

At the moment, I think Bruno Senna is likely to be the only driver to appear on the F1 grid next season, and it won’t only be because of his name, although admittedly it has accelerated the progress in his career to date. He has driven a few great races this season.

I think Bruno Senna will win the championship, but I think it will go all the way down to the final race. It could be the closest finish this championship has had so far.

This may not be one of the most talented grids, but it has been a very enjoyable season of racing so far and I recommend that everybody watches it.

If you are a British TV viewer, you can watch GP2 in ITV4. Check the ITV-F1 website for the exact broadcast schedule.