MLB Rumors: Who Stays With Sox, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz or Adrian Beltre?
Call it a transition year. Call it an unlucky year. Call it whatever you want, but the 2010 Boston Red Sox simply failed to meet the expectations of management, fans, and baseball pundits across the country.
There are a handful of factors worthy of blame here, including general manager Theo Epstein's reluctance to part with prospects to shore up the bullpen or acquire a top-flight pitcher like Cliff Lee. But pointing fingers is no way to win a World Series.
So with the 2010 Red Sox season officially in the books, let's forget the past and take a closer look at the decisions that will help shape the 2011 Boston Red Sox. First up, Boston's free agent and arbitration-eligible players.
Release/Trade Tim Wakefield
1 of 10
The 44-year-old Wakefield was never supposed to be a major part of the Red Sox rotation in 2010. But injuries to Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka forced Wakefield to step in and do what he always does--pitch a mediocre game.
Wakefield started 19 games and pitched in 32, compiling a 4-10 record with a 5.34 ERA (the highest its been since 2000). He threw a total of 140.0 innings, about 10 more innings than he had in 2009 when he was an All-Star for the first time in his career. So he's still serviceable, but far short of outstanding.
He's due to make $2 million in 2011, which is chump change for the Red Sox. But where does he fit on the roster?
The rotation is already full and Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa all figure to be above him on the depth chart. He could be put in the bullpen, where he spent most of this season, but it's impractical to have a reliever who is as likely to walk the batter he's facing as strike him out. He could be the garbage man and pitch only in blowouts to spare the collective stamina of the pitching stamina, but that role seems to be earmarked for Bowden.
The ideal scenario would be to keep Wakefield around in the minors and call him up in the event of an injury to a starter, but it's unlikely an 18-year major league veteran would accept a minor league assignment. The alternatives are either to release him outright or trade him to another team while swallowing the contract. In either case, Wakefield would probably just retire rather than try to continue his career outside of Boston.
He's been a cherished member of the Boston Red Sox for the past 16 years and has broken virtually every team record in reach. But the time may have finally come to call it quits.
Resign Victor Martinez
2 of 10
How hard is it to find a switch-hitting catcher who is a four-time All-Star and owns an .838 career OPS, and is still in the prime of his career? Players like Victor Martinez don't just grow on trees, and it would be a huge mistake to let him go.
But how much would it cost to resign him?
A good statistical comparison is Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann, who in 2007 signed a 6-year, $26.8 million deal with a 2013 club option for $12 million. The contract is backloaded and could pay McCann $27 million over the next three years. McCann, however, is five years younger than the 31-year-old Martinez and is underpaid relative to his performance (5-time All-Star).
Martinez's old division rival Joe Mauer will make $23 million a year through 2018, by which point Martinez will be in retirement. So the true market value for Martinez probably lies somewhere in between.
Expect a three to four year deal with a minimum annual salary of $12-14 million to be the starting point for contract negotiations. The Red Sox will have to compete with the Yankees, the Tigers, and possibly the Mariners for Martinez's services. But this is one bidding war they can't risk losing.
Resigning Victor Martinez has to be offseason priority No. 1. The free agent crop of catchers is incredibly barren with A.J. Pierzynski, Rod Barajas, and Ramon Hernandez all looking for work. Give Victor five years and $70 million and worry about the rest of the team later.
Resign Jason Varitek
3 of 10
The Red Sox could certainly find a better hitting catcher on the free agent market, or even in their own minor league system. But Varitek is still a capable major leaguer and deserves to finish out his career in a Boston uniform.
He actually had a respectable season in limited action, hitting seven home runs in only 39 games with an OPS of .766. That's not bad for a back-up catcher, assuming of course that Victor Martinez is resigned. Varitek is still the captain of the team and who knows how much his absence from the everyday lineup was missed by Josh Beckett, who likes to have Varitek as his personal catcher.
He only made $3 million in 2010 so it wouldn't be much of an expense. Give him the Wakefield treatment and sign him to a $2-3 million annual deal with an indefinite team option until the day he retires.
.png?w=256)
Decline Option On David Ortiz, Try To Resign Him
4 of 10
The Red Sox hold a $12.5 million club option on Ortiz for the 2011 season. Two or three years ago and it'd be a no-brainer that the option be picked up. Last year Ortiz would have been lucky to get an offer for half of that amount. This year, it's 50-50.
Ortiz had a good year offensively, slugging over 30 home runs and driving in over 100 for the first time since 2007 when he was still battery mates with Manny Ramirez. His .899 OPS was among the best in baseball and he earned his sixth All-Star selection.
But do you really pay a declining 34-year-old designated hitter $12.5 million? The answer should be no.
There are several players available on the market who could replicate Ortiz's numbers at a fraction of the cost. Among them are Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Lyle Overbay. For a few million more the Red Sox could take a look at Troy Glaus, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena. If they're tempted enough, there are likely also internal options (Zach Daeges, Aaron Bates, Bubba Bell) that would cost next to nothing and produce about 80 percent of what Ortiz did.
The Red Sox should make every effort to resign Ortiz because he is a valued member of the offense and is loved by the fans. But they shouldn't go much beyond a 2-year deal worth about $18 million with performance bonuses added in. Loyalty can only go so far.
Let Go Of Adrian Beltre
5 of 10
It should go without saying that Beltre will decline his $10 million player option for 2011 and become a free agent. Now on to the question of what the Red Sox should do about that.
Although Beltre was Boston's best offensive performer this season and is perfectly groomed to hit in Fenway Park, it would be a big mistake to attempt to resign him to the type of contract that he's going to demand.
Beltre is 31 years old and coming off statistically the second best year of his career, meaning he will want to capitalize on his success by signing the last major long-term deal of his career. Scott Rolen, statistically comparable to Beltre, signed an 8-year, $90 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2003 when he was 28. Factoring in inflation and the fact that his agent is Scott Boras, Beltre will command something in the neighborhood of a 4-year deal for $50 million.
The Red Sox could certainly afford that. But why would they pay over $12 million a year for a guy who has recorded an OPS over .800 only four times in his 13-season career? There's no way to justify that sort of financial commitment to a career underachiever.
Luckily for Boston, they have other options. They can slide Youkilis over to third and easily find a first basemen (Adam Dunn?) that can match Beltre's production. They could keep Youkilis at first and look for a short-term fix at third like Jorge Cantu, Melvin Mora, or Miguel Tejada. Or they could even give youngster Jed Lowrie a shot at third.
All of these options make more sense for the Red Sox than financially handicapping themselves to Beltre.
Promote Ryan Kalish Indefinitely
6 of 10
Kalish arrived to the big show this season after injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury left a meteor-sized hole in the Boston outfield.
In 53 games Kalish proved that he belonged, hitting four home runs and slugging .405 as he adjusted to major league pitching. He also swiped 10 bags and showed off a powerful arm with three assists from the outfield.
Kalish is left-handed so expect him to platoon with the right-handed hitting Cameron in center field until he proves he can be a regular, which should be by midseason. Kalish could also take over for Ellsbury full-time in left field if Ellsbury is traded.
Kalish is the first in a wave of Boston positional prospects who will begin popping up on the everyday roster.
Decline Team Option on Bill Hall
7 of 10
The Red Sox hold a $9.25 million option on Hall for the 2011 season, but there's simply no way the Boston front office can justify spending that kind of money on a utility man.
Hall had a sneaky good season for the Red Sox, filling in all over the field. The only positions he didn't play were catcher and first base (yes, he even pitched an inning). But it was his bat that really kept the Red Sox happy.
A total of 18 home runs and a .772 OPS from a bench player? That's some serious depth.
The Red Sox would love to have Hall back at the right price but the 30-year-old will probably look for a starting job elsewhere. Boston could pursue Melvin Mora, Ty Wiggington, Willie Bloomquist, and Cesar Izturis as Hall's replacement. Minor league infielder Yamaico Navarro is also an option.
Non-Tender Hideki Okajima
8 of 10
It would seem contrary to common sense for the Red Sox to jettison away one of the few effective relievers they've had over the years, especially when it's a lefty.
But the truth is that whatever made Okajima so magical his first two years in the U.S., that magic is now gone. Okajima had by far his worst season in 2010, with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.717 WHIP. He's surrendered almost twice as many hits (59) as he has strikeouts (33). His ERA has actually been hovering around 5.50 all season until a string of meaningless scoreless outings in September dropped it a full run.
Okajima is 34 years old so it'd be a pipe dream to assume that he can recover at this point.
He made $2.75 million in 2010 and if offered arbitration will command somewhere between $2.5 and $3 million. The Red Sox are better off cutting ties with him and giving someone like 26-year-old lefty Dustin Richardson an extended look out of the bullpen. There will also be quality relievers on the free agent market that the Red Sox could pursue.
Tender Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Assign to Minors
9 of 10
The Red Sox acquired Salty at the trading deadline hoping that at best he'd be a capable insurance policy in case Victor Martinez left, and at worst a decent backup catcher.
Boston still doesn't know what they have in this guy since he was shut down only a few games after the deadline with an injury. But they have to find out.
Saltalamacchia was once a very highly regarded catching prospect and was the centerpiece of the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007. He's still only 25 years old and has never appeared in more than 93 games in a single season, which he did in his rookie year in 2007.
He needs a chance to play every day and show talent evaluators what he's capable of. That's not going to happen if Victor Martinez is back, so it makes the most sense for Salty to spend his 2011 season in the minors until he can prove he's at least as good as Varitek (or Varitek's replacement).
Offering Saltalamacchia arbitration is a no-brainer. He's due to make around $450,000 in 2011 and won't be a free agent until 2014.
Tender Jon Papelbon
10 of 10
This may actually be the toughest decision Theo Epstein has to make all winter.
Papelbon is not the lights-out pitcher he once was. After four straight All-Star years during which Papelbon's ERA never dipped below 2.34 (2008) and his WHIP never rose above 1.147 (2009), Papelbon has regressed noticeably to a 3.90 ERA and 1.269 WHIP. The control and consistency that characterized his early years is rapidly fading and no one really knows why.
That said, however, Papelbon is still one of the best closers in the game. He's recorded at least 37 saves each of the past four years and is still a great power pitcher, recording 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
He made $9.35 million this season and will likely fetch $10-12 million in arbitration hearings. That's not the kind of money the Red Sox want to be paying a single reliever, especially one who may have already peaked. But what's the alternative?
The best options on the free agent market are Rafael Soriano and J.J. Putz, both of whom would want long-term deals. The Red Sox could take a chance on a former closer like Brian Fuentes or Jeremy Affeldt, but that could easily end in disaster. Boston fans want to hand over the job to 25-year-old fireballer Daniel Bard. But then who pitches in the eighth inning?
Quality relievers are hard to come by and Papelbon is certainly one of them. If the Red Sox have to pay a premium to retain his services for one more year, then so be it. At the end of the day, they're better with Papelbon than without him.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
