America Loves an Underdog; Especially One With Good Odds

When I lived in Cincinnati, I used to do guest spots three or four times a year analyzing the ponies on the “Regular Guy” handicapping show broadcast from River Downs race track.

While I love just going to the track, the nice thing about playing the horses is you don’t have to win all that often to win big.  If you’re willing to let go of the idea that the favorite wins all the time, your chances of hitting a nice ticket go up exponentially.

Now I’m not sure what my overall winning percentage was in my years doing the guest spots, but I know my bankroll was up substantially in my favor.  I would go so far as to guess that if you were willing to let go of the chalk, you were never behind; and if you played my first race I ever called on the show, your winnings would have covered every other pick I ever made in all of the years I appeared there.

I know this to be true because in my first race ever on my first show on a nine race card, I threw out the first and second betting choices and picked the trifecta straight up that paid $648.60 on a $1 bet.  I went on to pick two other trifectas that day and three other exactas.  Several hundred phone calls to the track by viewers across the country, and my place in the rotation of guests on the show was sealed.

I really enjoyed doing the show, and I can’t wait to get back on camera in the upcoming weeks after Miami Mitch’s Place goes under an entire revamping.  As that process takes place, we’ll continue to talk about football.

If anyone out there is interested in being a guest, you know how to reach me, and if the whole camera thing doesn’t work for you, we can do just audio.  The web is an amazing thing.

Where I was originally going with this was I was going to somehow tie throwing out favorites in a horse race with America loving the underdog.  While I’ve learned over the years that America loves to root for the underdog, that doesn’t necessarily translate to wagering on the underdog.  In fact, the trend is usually in the other direction.

What this gravitation to the favorite leads to is usually some tremendous value on the underdogs out there, and we’re going to try like crazy to identify it when the situations arise all season long.  While the Las Vegas Odds have long been released for Week One of college football 2008, I’m going to hold off until next week to run through the slate of games.

Instead, we’re going to stay the course and “get back on the horse,” as they say, in looking at some solid trends against the point spread that may come into play and could help us become a winner against the number for our 11th consecutive season.

Click here to see some strong recent trends