College Football Week 7 Outlook: Who's No. 1 Now?

Allen SmithContributor IOctober 13, 2010

COLUMBIA, SC - OCTOBER 9: Quarterback Greg McElroy of the Alabama Crimson Tide dives for a short gain and a first down at midfield against the South Carolina Gamecocks October 9, 2010 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina.  (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

3 Things I Learned From Last Week

1.  Well let the chaos begin.  With Alabama losing, now look for weird things to happen in the BCS upcoming.  There has been a question that has been part of the BCS debate, can a 1-loss team jump an undefeated team.  I do think that Alabama can do it considering their potential resume if they win out.  They will have had victories over 5 top 15 teams, four of which will be away from home.  And the big debate will be if Alabama and South Carolina rematch in the SEC Championship and Alabama wins, and is at 13-1, is that more impressive than an undefeated Boise St. or TCU?  I don’t know the answer but it is an issue to look at later on.

2.  I dusted off my iWork Numbers program and was able to simulate the BCS Standings.  Only 5 of the 6 computer polls are public so instead of throwing the highest and lowest rankings (like the BCS does) I threw out the lowest ranking of each team.  Here is the top 10: (1) Boise St. (2) Oregon (3) TCU (4) Ohio St. (5) Oklahoma (6) Nebraska (7) LSU (8) Auburn (9) Alabama (10) Michigan St.

3.  Now that we are at the midpoint if I had a Heisman vote right now, here is my top 3:

(1) Terrelle Pryor (2) Cam Newton (3) LaMichael James

Pryor still leads the pack, but barely, if Auburn continues to win, I will have no problem in putting Cam Newton on top.  The next few weeks will determine which direction the Heisman will go.

3 Games of the Week

Biggest Game:  #12 Arkansas at #7 Auburn - Saturday, October 16 - 3:30 pm EST - CBS

People are concerning their analysis on the game between Newton versus a average Arkansas defense.  I think this game will rely more on Mallett versus a average Auburn defense.  Auburn’s offense is based on big plays and controlling the pace of play, Arkansas’s offense is a bit more of a rhythm offense, if Mallett gets hot then Auburn will have trouble offensively keeping pace.  Even with Newton being the player that he is, he will hit a wall, he will get tired and the toll that he takes week in and week out not having a bye week until before Alabama will catch up with them.  I think Cam will have a great game, but I am not a believer in Auburn’s secondary enough for me to pick them.  I think Arkansas wins late.


Intriguing Game:  #1 Ohio St. at #18 Wisconsin - Saturday, October 16 - 7:00 pm EST - ESPN

Camp Randall Stadium is probably one of the most hostile environments to play in the Big Ten.  And I am getting the strange feeling that this game could go like the Alabama/South Carolina game.  Though I think Jim Tressel is a far better coach than Brett Bielema.  Wisconsin does have a bruising back in John Clay, and home field.  Ohio State has Pryor and a shaky secondary.  Plus we don’t know how effective or ineffective Pryor will be off his bruised thigh.  I think Wisconsin’s running game could be the difference and I think that will be the reason they pull the upset, on a late field goal.


Upset Alert:  Texas at #5 Nebraska - Saturday, October 16 - 3:30 pm EST - ABC

The only reason I’m putting this on upset alert is that I have to be a believer in Texan pride.  It is hard for me to believe that Texas will lose 3 straight games.  With that said Nebraska has been pointing to this game, but when they circled it, they were seen more as a underdog,  Now they are the favorite, and that is a relatively new standard Nebraska is getting used to.  There is something to be said of getting worked up and too jacked for a game.  I think Nebraska could catch a very angry Texas team off a bye, this is a very dangerous game for Nebraska thus the reasoning for them on upset alert.