College Football's Top 25 2008 According to Vegas: #1-10

I forgot to mention I saw Charlie Weis a few weeks ago. He was at Wrigley Field on a beautiful summer day here in Chicago singing "Take me out to the ball game" for the seventh inning stretch coincidentally (or maybe not so coincidently) with his former WR Jeff Samardzija looking on and laughing in the bullpen. While being a Head Coach hasn't proven to be Charlie's forte I don't think singing is in his future either. And a little observation for Charlie: the striped white Cubs jersey you were sporting wasn't flattering and didn't give you that "slimming look" you may have been looking for. Yes, I live on the North Side and don't like the Cubs, what did you expect anyways?

Well back to the topic at hand, dissecting who Las Vegas' odds tells us who the top 25 teams are. We saw some value in the 11-25 range but, while we'll see some teams who are legitimate front runners to hoist the BCS National Championship trophy, will they justify the short prices and long term tie-up of cash needed to make a wager like this work? We'll have to see.

#10 LSU Odds to win it all: 18-1
The defending National Champs have a pretty high price tag considering they have some experience at winning the big one. Why are the odds so high? Well they have games at Auburn and Florida and then at home game against Georgia. Throw in an SEC championship game that won't be a gimme like their entire out of conference schedule. The Tigers lost a ton of talent and have some big question marks at QB; they may be another year away from contending again.

#7-9 (tie) Missouri, Virginia Tech, The Field Odds to win it all: 15-1
Let me clarify this again, I only posted the top 25. Vegas lists 46 teams with odds to win it all, and even though Miami, Notre Dame, Cincinnati are among those listed, they just don't make our list. The field is a bad bet. There really isn't anyone there who has a chance that's worth shorter odds than some of those listed behind them. Of course Boise comes to mind and, while they may have an outside shot it's longer than the 15-1 odds you get here. As for Mizzou, they may believe that with Heisman candidate Chase Daniel running the show they have a chance, especially with the soft schedule. VT always has a chance as well. When you have a great coach good things usually happen. The Hokies play a soft out of conference schedule and the ACC looks to be having a down year so I don't mind seeing them ranked here. I just don't like the price.

#6 Texas Odds to win it all: 12-1
This is one where I would feel pretty comfortable not even giving an explanation and just saying no way but you know I can't resist any opportunity to diss the Longhorns. I often use the Rex Grossman comparison when describing Texas QB Colt McCoy and I've thought about it and it is unfair...to Grossman. McCoy doesn't have Devin Hester nor Brian Urlacher on his team and Mack Brown's bunch is going to need more than just those two to even compete. I would say the Horns are 12-1 odds for the Holiday Bowl, 7-1 odds for the Alamo Bowl.

#5 Oklahoma Odds to win it all: 10-1
The Sooners have a great chance to run the table with a pretty soft schedule that is traditionally loaded with home games. The big problem here is that the odds are to WIN the championship, not make it to the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bob Stoops on the sidelines when they kick off the title game, but he's been on the wrong end of some lopsided games in BCS bowls over the past few years and the only competitive contest he's been in he was a loser as well to non BCS Boise. The Sooners will be double digit favorites in almost every game this year.

#3-4 (tie)Ohio State, Georgia Odds to win it all: 8-1
Some people may be surprised the Buckeyes are ranked this low or even have odds this decent to win the title. I can't say I'm not either. Of course my reasoning is that the odds are based on public perception and not necessarily anything else. The Buckeyes have been to the title game the past two years and this year's team is clearly better than either of the past 2. Even the big game against USC is early enough in the season that if OSU stumbles they can easily recover and make it with one loss. It's a tough call and I'll really be kicking myself if they end up playing perennial BCS Bowl doormat Oklahoma in the title game.
I think Georgia is a strong team. I can't use the word fine because it reminds me of Brent Musburger, who just the thought of makes me ill. Additionally, I associate the word "fine" with more than just what they do on the field, and in that category the Bulldogs are truly a disgrace to the game. I am not as enamored with UGA as the rest of the free world; they play a brutal schedule and have never even got a whiff of a BCS title game under current coach Mark Richt. In the conference it's the usual suspects like the Florida's and LSU's of the world and out of conference they go to Arizona State and the home game against Central Michigan is no easy one. Throw in that it seems in Athens that they're playing a game of Russian Roulette as to who will be arrested next.

#2 Florida Odds to win it all: 6.5-1
A lot of people like the Gators this year and why not aside from their SEC schedule and games where you can truly throw out the records against like in-state rivals Miami and Florida State. If the Gators win title number 3 they will have earned it. They play enough tough opponents in enough grudge matches that close losses can easily happen and at such a short price there isn't any value there. If you like the Gates you probably won't have to lay a ton of points in many of their games so that may be the way to go. While the SEC has produced the last two National Champs, a trifecta isn't a good bet at these odds.

#1 USC: Odds to win it all: 3-1
You really can't go wrong picking the Trojans number one in any kind of preseason poll. Pete Carroll's bunch has the talent to get it done and will be favored in every game this year, even their early season tilt against Ohio State. Even if they somehow manage to lose to the Buckeyes the game is early enough in the season to overcome a loss. I like USC's chances, but I don't like this price. While the Trojans have proven to be one of the best teams for a few years running it seems to me like the rest of the Pac-10 is catching up with them and figuring them out. The past few years they've lost to far less talented teams and that's college football for you. Pretty simple here: 3-1 is just not good enough for anyone as anything can happen. In a game where there are no playoffs and every Saturday is really a must win game we just can't justify this price.