Reds Series Preview (August 15-17)

• the starting pitching is somewhat competent and covers more innings
• the young pitching (+ Springer) is given a majority of the high leverage situations (except for KMac's minor explosion Thursday night)
• Those in the Villone, Izzy, and Franklin camp are not stretched out. They are vulnerable enough just being on a major league mound....they don't need to throw to more than one or two batters.

Luwick had the big blow of the game with a 2 run HR in the 7th. The first run of the game was scored by Izturis (2-4 on the night) who scored on a Ludwick RBI double.

It is time to confess here: I have never been big on the 3 middle infielders in the starting lineup (Miles, Lopez, Izturis). However, they had a big night last night, going a combined 6-12 with 2 R a 2B, and a SB. I must admit, having Lopez and Izturis in the lineup provides some nice speed on the basepaths (if they get on). That's something the Cardinals have sorely missed for a long time.

On to this weekend....In typical fashion, I have put togther a table of each team's starters. Listed are their VORP (runs produced over a replacement level player) and PA (plate appearances). The last column has PA/VORP, or the amount of trips to the plate someone needs to generate an additional run over that which a replacement player would generate. For example, Pujols is at 7.56 and Ludwick is at 10.13. If Pujols made 7.56 trips to the plate and a replacement level player (readily available at the league minimum salary) made 7.56 trips to the plate, Pujols would produce 1 more run than the replacement level player. The "runs produced" stat is a stat that gives different values to different outcomes at the plate. I will not go into detail here on the exact workings of the statistic, but the important thing to keep in mind is that it is independent of situation (i.e. baserunners). In that sense, the cleanup hitter will have the same chance to produce runs as someone late in the lineup.

The real value of this stat is not comparing Pujols to a replacement level player, but comparing Pujols to someone else on a major league roster (such as Ludwick). If it takes Pujols 7.56 plate appearances (about 1.5 games) to produce a run over a replacement player and Ludwick 10.13 plate appearances (about 2 games), we know that over the course of a 6 games, Pujols will create one more run than Ludwick.

Player	VORP	PA	PA/VORP
Dickerson, LF	3.4	10	2.94
Hairston, CF	24.0	219	9.13
Bruce, RF	3.1	294	94.84
Encarnacion, 3B	15.0	440	29.33
Keppinger, SS	2.3	350	152.17
B. Phillips, 2B	20.1	510	25.37
Valentin, 1B	1.9	111	58.42
Bako, C	-6.2	277	--------
Total	63.6	2211	34.76

Player	VORP	PA	PA/VORP
Mather, LF	3.7	124	33.51
Schumaker, CF	18.6	460	24.73
Ludwick, RF	45.5	461	10.13
Glaus, 3B	29.7	507	17.07
Izturis, SS	3.0	331	110.33
Miles, 2B	10.4	332	31.92
Pujols, 1B	63.5	480	7.56
Molina, C	11.3	406	35.93
Total	185.7	3101	16.70

Friday	W	L	ERA	VORP	IP	IP/VORP
Thompson	4	2	4.34	6.8	45.7	6.72
Arroyo	10	9	5.44	-1.3	137.3	-------
Saturday
Pineiro	5	5	4.82	9.8	117.7	12.01
Harang	3	12	5.17	6.1	127.0	20.82
Sunday
Lohse	13	5	3.92	28.0	156.0	5.57
Volquez	14	5	2.86	34.9	144.7	4.14
Cards	22	12	4.31	44.6	319.3	7.16
Reds	27	26	4.44	39.7	409	10.30

Oops....the computer I am using is not letting me copy the graphs in. My regular computer got fried a couple of days ago and is (hopefully) being fixed this afternoon. I hope to get the graphs in then. (EDIT...graphs are in....sorry they look a little funny....not a good computer day for me today).

Here are the summaries just in case:

Offense- Reds 34.76 PA/VORP, Cardinals 16.70 PA/VORP

Starting- Reds 10.30 IP/VORP, Cardinals 7.16 IP/VORP

Bullpen- Reds 13.67 IP/PRAA, Cardinals 43.20 IP/PRAA (PRAA is a similar stat to VORP, except it is pitched runs above an average player, not a replacement player).

The Redbird offense looks to be over twice as good as the Red's offense on paper. The Cardinals hold a slight edge in starting pitching, whereas the Reds have a significant edge in the pen. The first two matchups (Thompson-Arroyo and Pineiro-Harang) favor the Cardinals, whereas Sunday's Lohse-Volquez matchup favors the Reds).

In the month of August:

OBP- Cards .339, Cincy .321

SLG- Cards .440, Cincy .358

ERA- Cards 3.05, Cincy 5.45

BAA- Cards .239, Cincy .307

Cincy has been falling apart, and here's hoping we add to it. Someone over at vivaelbirdos.com said that Milwaukee is on pace to win 90 games. If we want to win 91 games, we have to go 23-15.

Here are the remaining series:

@ Reds (3 games)

Pirates (2 games)

Braves (3 games)

Brewers (2 games)

@ Astros (3 games)

@ DBacks (3 games)

Marlins (3 games)

Cubs (3 games)

@ Pirates (3 games)

@ Reds (3 games)

@ Cubs (3 games)

DBacks (4 games)

Reds (3 games)

• 10 3 game series (4 home, 6 road)
• 2 2 game series (2 home, 0 road)
• 1 4 game series (1 home, 0 road)

If the Cards win all of their 3 game series and split all of the 2 and 4 game series, they will end up at 92-70.

Tough series remaining:

• Brewers (2 games)
• @ Astros (3 games)
• @ DBacks (3 games)
• Marlins (3 games)
• Cubs (3 games)
• @ Cubs (3 games)
• DBacks (4 games)

All of the 3 game series need to be won for the above formula to lead to 92 wins (and the 2 and 4 game series split). Let's assume that the Cardinals do split the 2 game series at home with the Brewers and the 4 game series at home against the DBacks. It would be unreasonable to plan on taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs at Wrigley, and perhaps the DBacks in Arizona as well. If they fail to win these two series, they will need to win a 2 of the 2 or 4 game series or sweep one of the three game series. Confusing? I thought so...let's boil it down.

The Cards need to win (almost) all of their series from here out if Milwaukee keeps playing good baseball. It is doable, but there are some tough looking series on the schedule as outlined above. The good news? The Cubs and Brewers duke it out quite a bit at the end of the season....wouldn't it be ironic if the Cubs helped the Cards into the playoffs?