So this week, I'm taking some risks.
Some big risks. Calculated, but big.
I'm betting almost 100% of my bankroll. My bets total $110 of my $136 bankroll.
My reasoning is based on the following statistics: cost per bet (which I fixed), and win percentage. While these are inexorably linked mathematically, I'm risk averse, so I don't quite trust my own winnings. I wanted to give myself a weekly shot at the big ticket win without risking much percentage-wise.
My theoretically best bet combination, which I'm sure will change as I get more data points, looks like this (with "asset allocations"):
1.) Four Individual Spread Bets - 70.5%
2.) "Top 2" Team Parlay (with "Wacky Friday" vig if I can get it) - 18%
3.) "Top 7" Team Parlay - 7%
4.) "Top 9" Team Parlay - 4.5%
I'm well diversified, though there is a lot of duplication in the parlays. I've given some serious thought to switching out the seven team parlay with a seven team, six point teaser (you'll see why in the win percentages below)—but the payouts are just not compelling.
I may change my tune in a big down week, but for now, I should stick to my guns. Here are the Box's win percentages since Week 1 of 2006 ("Tease" is six point teasers):
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