The Unbiased College Football Preseason Top 25: Nos. 11-25
I'm not a big fan of preseason polls. They usually just provide unsubstantiated fodder for teams that haven't accomplished much on a football field to stake their claim to greatness, which everyone else knows they won't be holding on to for very long.
While I've come to notice over the years that some teams' fans only believe what is positive about their team, and that anything negative is called untrue, though it can usually be verified pretty easily with facts.
There is no place in the world where true public opinion is weighed more accurately than Las Vegas. After all, odds are based upon public perception and move up and down based on how strongly the public believes their perceptions to be true.
In other words, there is no bias when it comes to money.
These aren't my rankings: This is the true public opinion poll.
Nos. 19-26 (tie)—Odds to win it all: 50-1
If someone asked me if I could make 50 times on my money in less than five months, I'd jump at it.
Unfortunately, not only do most of these teams look to play a tough schedule, most of them just don't have the guns to do it.
If I were to go with a team at such a nice price, it would be Texas Tech, and I'm not even sure why these others are at the same price as the Red Raiders.
TTech plays a pretty soft schedule, and there isn't much on the non-conference slate outside of the shootout that they should prevail in against Nevada. Tech also benefits from playing rival Texas at home.
Its big test is at Oklahoma. If both teams get past the Longhorns, they could both be undefeated going into the game, giving them solid positioning in the polls. Mizzou or Kansas would probably be waiting in the Big 12 title game.
We know only one team can win a BCS Championship each year, but 50-1 may not be such a bad price here.
No. 18 Arizona State—Odds to win it all: 40-1
To be honest, I don't think it's worth it to plunk one down on the Sun Devils, even at these odds. I wouldn't say anything is impossible for Dennis Erickson, and they do have the kicker (Thomas Weber) that you need to win big close games, but they have too many chances to stumble to justify a wager like this.
No. 17 Kansas—Odds to win it all: 33-1
This will be a common theme for this read: a decent team with a schedule that is just too tough for the talent they have. The Jayhawks get Missouri, Oklahoma, and South Florida on the road, plus Texas and Texas Tech at home. If they win even four of those five, they may deserve to be champs, but we're not going to bet they can get it done.
Nos. 14-16 (tie)—Odds to win it all: 30-1
We'll be picking the Vols and Illini plenty this year in their individual games, especially throwing in the points. Tennessee and Illinois will be competitive and then some on the field, but they're not really National Championship material at this price.
I would like to note that Illinois' Juice Williams is a Vince Young type. I wouldn't put anything past him, but I just don't see him running the table to get the chance on the national stage that VY got.
To be honest, I'm intrigued by the Badgers here. They play Michigan early, probably before the Wolverines have a chance to adjust to their new system, and they play Ohio State at home. Throw in that the Big Ten doesn't have a championship game, and it's one fewer tough game.
I don't see Wisconsin stumbling against their out-of-conference opponents, though playing Akron, Cal-Poly, Fresno State, and Marshall could come back to bite them when strength of schedule comes into play if there is a log jam at the top.
I don't see how Auburn belongs with these other two, but I guess that's the beauty of the offseason. Maybe they are there because they have Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee at home and don't play Florida? Who knows, but I'm not playing them.
For West Virginia and Clemson, it's a classic case of "if not now, then when?" It may be when for both of these guys. Of the two, I think WVU has the better shot. They just have some hurdles they haven't been able to leap. If they do get by them we will look back and see this pick as a no-brainer. Maybe we go small.
At Clemson, I'm convinced they'll never get it done with Tommy Bowden as head coach. He may prove me wrong someday, but until then I'll use my hard-earned money elsewhere.
I'll be back later with the rest of the list. Less than two weeks until all of the preseason banter becomes one big moot point.
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
