UFC 119: Nogueira Getting Little Respect From Bettors Versus Bader, Here's Why

Up and coming UFC light heavyweight Ryan “Darth” Bader enters the Octagon this Saturday night for his biggest test of his young career. His opponent is none other than MMA legend Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

With a flawless 11-0 MMA record, Bader hasn’t fought since February when he knocked out Keith Jardine in the third round of their bout in Australia. Sure, knocking out the “Dean of Mean” isn’t a great accomplishment anymore, but Vegas still considers Bader a big favorite to defeat “Lil Nog” in this weekend’s UFC 119 co-main event.

When the betting odds for UFC 119 opened, the oddsmakers made Bader the -150 favorite. Since then, the bettors have been backing the TUF 8 winner to where his odds are now -170.

Nogueira (+140) has an impressive fight resume. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, “Lil Nog” has a 19-3 record in MMA and is currently riding a seven-fight win streak. However, many UFC fans felt that his win streak should have come to an end in his last fight when he won a controversial split decision over Jason Brilz in May.

A wrestler just like Bader, Brilz gave Nogueira fits for three rounds despite being a huge underdog. In the fight, Nogueira looked old, tired, and worn down versus the energetic Brilz.

If Nogueira had a difficult time pacing with the energy of Brilz, how will he keep up with the athletic and younger Bader?

A two-time Division I All-American wrestler out of Arizona State, Bader currently trains out of the Lions Den MMA academy in Scottsdale Arizona. Just 27 years old, Bader is extremely athletic and in great shape. Although wrestling is his bread and butter, he also has effective striking skills and trains with plenty of capable jiu-jitsu practitioners.

After watching Nogueira’s lackluster performance versus Brilz, it was evident that his better days are behind him. Despite an impressive seven-fight win streak, his opponents over that span were middle of the pack fighters at best. The last time he defeated a quality fighter was over three years ago when he TKO’d Alistair Overeem. It should be noted Overeem wasn’t close to being the beast back then that he is today.

Bader, on the other hand, is younger, hungrier, faster, and more athletic. Don’t expect Bader to knock out Nogueira and he certainly won’t submit him. Instead, Bader will take Nogueira down and control the top. As long as he stays out of a submission, he should stay in control on the ground; his wrestling is just too good.

This will happen for all three rounds. It might not be the most entertaining fight, but the ref will raise Bader’s hand and he will move a notch or two up the UFC light heavyweight ranks.

Oddsauthority.com UFC 119 Pick: Bader by decision

Odds: +200 at Sportsbook.com

For more UFC 119 analysis and fight odds, check out Oddsauthority.com.