NCAA Football Projections Week 2: Scores From Every Game

Week 2 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

August 12th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.me of the Week: #16 Texas Tech 37 @ Nevada 32
After several marquee matchups in the first week of the season, Week 2 does not have a single game that stands out above the rest. This one pits a high-powered Texas Tech squad looking to contend for the Big 12 crown. The team's defense will get an early-season, non-conference, road test against another potential offensive juggernaut in Nevada. According to the sim, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and the Red Raiders 75.4% of the time by an average score of 37-32. Personally, I may take the Over on that projection (and whatever Vegas says). Either way, this will be a fun game to watch that may be closer than most would think.

Week 2 Scores for Every FBS Game:

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 2.

 

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg. Score
Citadel @ Clemson	95	3-45
Furman @ Virginia Tech	95	3-43
Richmond @ Virginia	95	4-36
Western Carolina @ Florida State	95	4-38
William & Mary @ NC St.	95	5-30
Tennessee Tech @ Louisville	95	6-44
Eastern Illinois @ Illinois	95	3-44
Marshall @ Wisconsin	95	10-40
Murray State @ Indiana	95	4-45
Northern Colorado @ Purdue	95	4-44
Ohio @ Ohio State	95	6-41
Eastern Washington @ Colorado	95	5-40
Louisiana Tech @ Kansas	95	13-36
Montana State @ Kansas State	95	4-47
Northwestern State @ Baylor	95	6-39
Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri	95	4-55
Texas State @ SMU	95	7-35
San Diego State @ Notre Dame	95	8-39
Sacramento State @ Colorado St.	95	5-35
Stephen F. Austin @ TCU	95	4-40
Utah State @ Oregon	95	9-35
C. Michigan @ Georgia	95	13-39
Norfolk State @ Kentucky	95	4-37
Southeastern Louisiana @ Mississippi State	95	4-36
Troy @ LSU	95	5-44
Tulane @ Alabama	95	7-37
Idaho State @ Idaho	95	7-37
Nicholls State @ New Mexico State	95	6-37
Weber State @ Hawaii	95	5-38
Fla. Int. @ Iowa	95	7-36
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma	95	20-35
San Jose State @ Nebraska	95	9-34
Texas Southern @ Arkansas St.	95	6-37
E. Michigan @ Michigan State	95	10-36
Stanford @ Arizona St.	95	10-38
New Hampshire @ Army	93.4	6-25
UNLV @ Utah	93.4	13-39
S. Miss @ Auburn	91.8	8-31
UAB @ Florida Atlantic	91.8	13-35
Mississippi @ WF	90.2	12-31
Miami (FL) @ Florida	90.2	12-38
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh	88.5	14-37
Northern Illinois @ W. Michigan	83.6	18-32
Toledo @ Arizona	78.7	21-38
Oregon State @ Penn State	77	15-27
Miami (OH) @ Michigan	73.8	13-30
GA Tech @ Boston College	67.2	17-26
Houston @ Oklahoma State	63.9	31-38
Texas A&M @ New Mexico	57.4	23-31
Akron @ Syracuse	55.7	15-24
Navy @ Ball State	50.8	30-36
Air Force @ Wyoming	49.2	21-21
Northwestern @ Duke	45.9	22-23
Minn. @ Bowling Green	39.3	33-33
Rice @ Memphis	37.7	28-24
Kent St. @ Iowa State	32.8	22-18
Arkansas @ LA-Monroe	24.6	31-20
Texas Tech @ Nevada	24.6	37-32
Connecticut @ Temple	21.3	26-18
Brigham Young @ Washington	21.3	36-28
South Florida @ UCF	19.7	31-21
California @ Washington St.	14.8	32-21
W. Virginia @ East Carolina	9.8	38-21
Maryland @ Mid Tenn	9.8	31-17
S. Carolina @ Vanderbilt	8.2	28-13
Tulsa @ North Texas	6.6	39-23
Texas @ UTEP	1.6	33-17
Western Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky	1	30-8

Updated FBS Standings through Week 2

Conference	Team	Abs. Record	Exp. Record
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	WF	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Duke	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	GA Tech	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	NC St.	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big East	Connecticut	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Louisville	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Pittsburgh	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	South Florida	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	W. Virginia	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Cincinnati	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big Ten	Indiana	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Iowa	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Ohio State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Penn State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Wisconsin	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Purdue	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Illinois	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Minn.	2 - 0	1 - 1
Big Ten	Northwestern	2 - 0	1 - 1
Big Twelve	Colorado	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Kansas State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Kansas	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Missouri	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Nebraska	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Oklahoma	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Texas Tech	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Texas	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Twelve	Baylor	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Twelve	Iowa State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Twelve	Oklahoma State	2 - 0	1 - 1
Big Twelve	Texas A&M	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Tulsa	2 - 0	2 - 0
Conference USA	Houston	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Marshall	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Memphis	0 - 2	1 - 1
Conference USA	Rice	2 - 0	1 - 1
Conference USA	S. Miss	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	SMU	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	UTEP	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	East Carolina	0 - 2	0 - 2
Conference USA	Tulane	0 - 1	0 - 1
Conference USA	UAB	0 - 2	0 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	1 - 0	1 - 0
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 1	1 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Navy	1 - 1	1 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Ball State	2 - 0	1 - 1
Mid-American	Bowling Green	0 - 2	1 - 1
Mid-American	Buffalo	0 - 2	1 - 1
Mid-American	C. Michigan	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	E. Michigan	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Kent St.	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Temple	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	W. Michigan	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Akron	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Ohio	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Toledo	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	2 - 0	2 - 0
Mountain West	TCU	2 - 0	2 - 0
Mountain West	Air Force	2 - 0	1 - 1
Mountain West	Colorado St.	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	New Mexico	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	San Diego State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	UNLV	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	2 - 0	1 - 1
Mountain West	Wyoming	1 - 1	1 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona St.	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	Arizona	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	USC	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	California	2 - 0	1 - 1
Pacific-10	Oregon State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Pacific-10	Stanford	0 - 2	0 - 2
Pacific-10	UCLA	0 - 1	0 - 1
Pacific-10	Washington St.	0 - 2	0 - 2
Pacific-10	Washington	0 - 2	0 - 2
Southeastern	Arkansas	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Auburn	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Georgia	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	S. Carolina	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Tennessee	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Alabama	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Kentucky	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	Arkansas St.	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Mid Tenn	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Fla. Int.	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	LA-Laf	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	LA-Monroe	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	Troy	0 - 2	0 - 2
Western Athletic	Boise State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	Fresno State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	Hawaii	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Idaho	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	San Jose State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	0 - 2	0 - 2
Western Athletic	Utah State	0 - 2	0 - 2

 

 

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