Chaser Or Racer: NASCAR's Race To The Chase (Watkins Glen)

            A little bit of rain and some alternate fuel strategy always has a habit of jumbling up the finishing order, giving us names toward the front that aren’t normally there. At the same time, it can be very frustrating for those who ran toward the front for the entire race, only to get bitten by the different strategy. It looked like that was destined to happen at Pocono, when the rain hit about 30 laps after the halfway point. However, as is normally the case with north eastern Pennsylvania weather (I know because I live there), the rain passed through with swift ease, the sun popped back out, track dried, and the race saw its full distance. Theoretically then, the drivers and teams who went with different strategy would be hurt. Not so fast though. Kasey Kahne, who was leading when the rain storm hit (he stayed out while others pitted) finished a nice seventh, and Mark Martin (who may not be running for the championship, but was very fast last weekend) finished an equally solid, albeit slightly disappointing, eighth. All the same, many of the drivers fighting the final Chase spots had to sweat it out last weekend. For some, it paid off; for others, their plan backfired tremendously.

NOTE: While I normally would include the 15th and 16th place drivers, Ryan Newman (15th) and Brian Vickers (16th) are too far back to make a run during the final five races before The Chase. Each has about a full race’s worth of points to make up in that time span, which isn’t going to be enough for either of them. They’re seasons have seen bright spots, but they’re not good enough to qualify for this year’s Chase.

10th place Denny Hamlin: This driver and team were in position to finish second had the rain stopped the race entirely. However, when the rain stopped and racing resumed, Hamlin and crew dropped all the way back to 23^rd at race’s end. The silver lining in that, though, is that this bunch is not one of the drivers on the outside looking in, and has a chance to rebound this weekend at Watkins Glen (remember that Hamlin is an adequate road racer). I don’t see this team having anything to worry about right now; they’ve been fast all season, but have hit bad luck a few more times than they’d care to. This team should be in the clear.

11th place Kevin Harvick: The “up then down” season he has had continued this week, as he finished fourth, following a crash at Indianapolis. He’s far from being off the bubble though, and I’m still not picking him to qualify for The Chase. His season has been too inconsistent and, if it keeps up, will eventually cancel out any solid runs he has the next five races. He’s only 19 points ahead of 13^th place Matt Kenseth, and only 54 ahead of 14^th place David Ragan. Given that both of them have been more consistent than “Happy” Harvick, I think each has a better chance to qualify than him. He’ll need to get consistent to keep himself in The Chase, which he hasn’t shown he can do since he won last year’s Daytona 500.

12th place Clint Bowyer: Like teammate Harvick, Bowyer’s inconsistent season turned up a solid finish at Pocono, as he came home sixth. However, again like Harvick, he and the team have yet to show they can finish consistently well since they last won. It remains imperative that this team also regains consistency; finishing well one week then running poorly the next won’t keep you in The Chase, not when the two drivers behind you have been more consistent. The Richard Childress group certainly has the resources to have all three teams in The Chase; it’s just a matter of the 29 and 07 teams matching the 31 team’s knack for running well in most races.

13th place Matt Kenseth: Eleventh wasn’t what he and team wanted out of Pocono, but things could always be worse for them. They’re only eleven points of The Chase and have shown that they consistently have the pace to get back into the top 12. They just need a little bit of luck in their favor. I don’t see much of a reason to think this time will miss NASCAR’s playoffs. They’ve been too competitive and too consistent, once they got past they’re early season struggles. This driver and team should be alright after Richmond.

14th place David Ragan: This year’s surprise contender continues to have quiet but solid runs, as he finished fifth last weekend. It may not have gained him much ground (1^2th place Harvick finished just ahead of him in fourth), but Ragan’s been more consistent than him (and Clint Bowyer for that matter) in recent weeks. He’ll need to keep that consistency going in the next five races to crack the top 12, something I think he and the 6 team can certainly do (and possibly even win in that stretch). This driver and team remains my dark horse pick for this year’s Chase.