The Inflation Equation: Why Georgia Is Overrated and Ohio State Is the Best Bet

(www.cfb360.com) - Two years ago, many magazine prognosticators, reporters, and coaches picked Notre Dame and Ohio State to battle for the still-mythical national championship.  It seemed likely on the surface, based on the previous year's results, but they fell into the preseason inflation trap, as Notre Dame had no business being ranked number one or close to it.

Early predictors put too much weight on two important factors: talent at glamour positions (the Halo Effect) and previous year's performance exceeding previous year's expectations (the Hangover Effect.)

The roots of the inflation equation usually go back two years.  For example, in 2005 some predicted a 1-5 start for ND, which was a bit silly given that talent was cresting in South Bend from Willingham and Davie's "good" recruiting years.  Notre Dame greatly exceeded expectations that year, reaching the BCS.

That created a massive Hangover effect for Weis and Notre Dame heading into 2006.  When coupled with the Halo Effect, where the presence of stars at glamour positions makes the whole team seem better, Notre Dame was set up for a fall.

These two factors tend to gloss over major deficiencies or key talent losses, as they did for many when evaluating Notre Dame heading into 2006.

The problem?  Notre Dame returned Brady Quinn but lost his best receiver in Maurice Stovall, and his other top receiver was already thinking baseball.  That was bad enough, but the offensive line couldn't protect, and the Notre Dame defense, while talented, was caught in a coaching conundrum.

Result: Notre Dame finished the year barely ranked in the top 20. 

In 2007, it was a similar story with Michigan (see" Why Michigan was overrated in 2007.")  Because Michigan disappointed in 2005, they started 2006 ranked far lower than they should have been and became a "surprise" team.  Thus, despite some important losses on defense, these factors—along with star talent at the glamour positions—pushed Michigan up in the rankings for 2007.

They fit the inflation equation: They returned glamour players in Henne, Hart, and Manningham and exceeded the previous year's expectations, but had they major talent holes to fill.

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