PGA Championship Preview

Ben Hogan famously referred to Oakland Hills as a ‘Monster’ after his win at the 1951 US Open with a score of 7 over par.

During the 2004 Ryder Cup, the course gave some of the world’s best more than they can handle; particularly in the case of the US Team, who were more or less demolished by the European team in the 2004 Ryder Cup.

This week, Oakland Hills will host its 10th major championship as it welcomes the best golfers in the world to the 90^th PGA Championship.

The course is just under 7,400 yards, which is 200 yards less than Torrey Pines during the US Open.

But finding the rough at Oakland Hills virtually ensures a bogey. Players are also faced with a 257 yard par-3 to end their front nine and the dreaded 238 yard par-3 17^th which has cost many players a very large amount of money over the years.

Golf is a very difficult sport to predict the outcome, especially in a major championship where literally a few wayward tee shots could be the difference between a player contending or missing the cut.

Regardless, I have compiled a list of players that I believe will contend this week,  not be a factor and could go either way.

Players Who Will Contend This Week:

K.J Choi

K.J Choi has been fairly quiet this year.  He currently sits 15^th in FedEx Cup point standings and 17^thon the PGA Tour Money List, but many expected Choi to have a real breakout year after solid play in 2006 and 2007.

Choi won the Sony Open in Hawaii in January and was in contention heading into the final round of the British Open, although he shot a 79 on Sunday at Royal Birkdale.

Recently, Choi’s game appears to be on the brink of returning to its 2006 and 2007 form.

Choi hits the ball long and accurate, a combination that is very much needed to conquer "‘The Monster."

Stuart Appleby

Appleby’s game appeared to be coming together at last week’s Bridgestone Invitational as he fired a 66, 67, and 68 in his final three rounds. 

Appleby typically starts off very hot at the majors and then cools down on the     weekends.

In this year’s US Open, he shot 69 and 70 in the first two rounds only to follow with a 79 and 75 on the weekend.

In the British Open, Appleby started off with a 72 and 71 which he again followed with a 79 and 75 on the weekend.

Appleby is talented enough to win a major, and if he can hold it together for four rounds he could very well be in contention this week.

Ian Poulter

To begin with, history is not on Poulter’s side as a European has not won a PGA Championship in 78 years.

But the game is more international today than ever before and Europe has more talented golfers on tour now than at any other time since the very early years of the game.

Poulter is a quirky, eccentric, and colorful character that is not lacking in the confidence department.   

Clearly he must be comfortable in his own skin to confidently wear a pink pair of pants during the final round of the British Open, and make a legitimate run at the Claret Jug while doing so.

Poulter, like Appleby, has started off well at the majors only to slow down during the final two rounds.

Poulter began the Masters with a 70 and 69 but followed with a 75 and 78 on the weekend.

He began the British Open with 72 and 71 followed by a 75 on Saturday but was then able to make a run on Sunday with a final round score of 71.

Poulter was essentially one good round away from most likely winning his first major at Royal Birkdale this year.

As is the case with so many others, Poulter is highly talented and has the ability to win a major, if he can only manage to hold it together for four straight rounds.

Padraig Harrington

Surely Padraig couldn’t win two majors in one year, could he?

We were saying the exact same thing a few weeks ago when we were asking whether or not Harrington could possibly defend his British Open title.

The man is playing good golf right now and could very well have caught fire at exactly the right time; during that short stretch which includes the British Open and PGA Championship.

Harrington also has performed reasonably well at all of the majors this year.

He finished fifth in the Masters, 36^th in the US Open and as we all know, he won the British Open.

If Harrington just continues to play the way he has been over the past few weeks, there is no reason to think that he won’t contend this week at the PGA Championship. 

Justin Leonard

Leonard is quietly having an excellent year.  He is seventh on the Money List and seventh in FedEx Cup points and as of right now, he is assured a spot on the US Ryder Cup team.

Leonard has won a major in the past and has played fairly well in this year’s majors, with a 20^th place finish at the Masters, 36^th at the US Open and 16^th at the British Open. 

Leonard has been a contender in several majors over the past 10 years and he is playing well enough this year to make a legitimate run at another major.

Phil Mickelson

I know what you are probably thinking, ‘Come on, Meltdown Mickelson has choked in every major since the Winged Foot incident’ and that is perfectly reasonable thought.

But, there was something about Mickelson’s game at last week’s Bridgestone Invitational that leads me to believe that he could very well be on track to win his fourth major this week.

Despite yet another ‘Mickelson Meltdown’ last week, he played some of the best golf we have seen from him in a long time.

Up until the final four holes last week, Mickelson had made only four bogeys and he did so without his characteristically solid shortgame.

Mickelson is typically erratic off the tee and with his long irons but still manages to compete due to his Houdini-like shortgame. 

Last week we saw the opposite.  Mickelson managed to compete by hitting long and accurate drives and sticking one approach shot after another while struggling with his shortgame. 

Over the years we have rarely seen Mickelson play poorly around the greens and it is unlikely that this short game master will lose his touch for very long.

If Mickelson can regain his touch around the greens this week, a very likely scenario, while continuing his stellar play off the tee and with his approach shots, he will have finally put together the complete package he has been searching for over the past two years. 

Phil Mickelson playing with all systems going is without question the second best player in the world, so, needless to say, without Woods present that would make Mickelson far and away the best player in the tournament.

Now, before you read on, no, I did not get the two lists mixed up. 

Although the players listed below are far bigger names than most of players I believe will perform well this week, there is good reason to believe that the following players will not perform well at the season’s final major.

Players Who Will Not Contend This Week

Anthony Kim

Sure, Anthony Kim is the brightest young star on the PGA Tour, and he has already won twice this year, but I don’t believe he is quite ready to win his first major.

First of all, Kim has only played in four majors so far, and he is still learning how to approach majors differently than the average tour stop.

Kim has also struggled as of late in two areas of his game which make it nearly impossible to win a major.  He has been somewhat inaccurate off the tee and he has struggled with his putting.

If you don’t find the fairways off the tee in the majors, you are finished. 

Equally, if you don’t putt well in the majors, no matter who you are, it is nearly impossible to win.

Will Anthony Kim win several majors during the course of his career?  I am certain of it.

But he will not win his first major this week at Oakland Hills.

Vijay Singh

Vijay has the momentum heading into this week’s PGA Championship after his win last week at the Bridgestone Invitational…. or does he? 

As I have said time and time again, winning any PGA Tour event is a monumental task and winning a WGC is even more difficult.

Not to take anything at all away from Vijay’s win last week, but, Vijay hobbled in for the win, he didn’t go out and take it.

Vijay’s putter all but abandoned him on the back nine last week and he was just lucky that Mickelson sustained another meltdown and that Lee Westwood was, as usual, not able to make a big putt.

Last week, Vijay left the tournament open for the taking but was lucky that no one actually stepped up to take it.

As I have mentioned before, you cannot win a major without your putter and unless Vijay has a significant turnaround on the greens this week, he simply does not have the putting stroke right now to win a major.

Ernie Els

I have seen many analysts name Els as a legitimate contender this week, but I believe that unfortunately his time has passed him by.

Els has just not been the same since a knee injury sustained during a boating accident a few years back. 

Unfortunately, I think it is become more prevalent that the years Els lost as a result of his knee injury would most likely have been amongst the best of his career.

Els still has the raw talent and ability to produce some lights-out rounds, but I don’t think he has the consistency to produce four very good rounds of golf in a row. 

Trevor Immelman

We have seen players win majors in the past and then fall off track with regard to their career.

But, rarely have we seen a player win a major and proceed to lose his game as quickly as Trevor Immelman did after winning the Masters. 

There is a lot the comes along with winning a major.  Everything you do is put under the microscope, there are far more demands on your time in terms of publicity and various other media engagements. 

I think that Trevor Immelman was simply not ready for all of the off-course demands on his time that inevitably come with winning a major, and his game has suffered as a result. 

Immelman is a great young player and he will without question find his game again, but there is no indication that it will happen this week.

Adam Scott

We have all seen Adam Scott’s name come up in every conversation about the so-called best player to have never won a major. 

Scott is a great young player.  He has arguably the best swings on tour and has the ability to catch fire during a round.

But what indication has Scott given us recently that he is ready to step up and win a major?

None in my opinion.

He has not played particularly well at the majors over the past couple of years, and when put in a pressure situation such as being paired with Mickelson and Woods at the Open, or being paired with Woods and Ogilvy during the third round of the WGC-CA Championship, he has continuously appeared to have laid down to the competition.

Will Scott win a major?

It is likely.

But I don’t believe he has shown us any indication that he is ready to win a major now.

Players Who Could Go Either Way

Jim Furyk

Has his time passed him by, or does he still have some fuel left in the tank?

Furyk most likely has this week and possibly four to eight more majors left to add another one onto his resume.

Sergio Garcia

How will he putt this week? 

That is the only question needed to be asked of Garcia each week, and there is a 50-50 chance that he could go either way with his putting stroke.

Lee Westwood

Westwood is striking the ball very well, but can he finally make some big putts?

Geoff Ogilvy

Has his month vacation between the US and British Open cost him the season, or can he regain his form this week at Oakland Hills? 

I don’t even think Ogilvy knows the answer to that question. 

Kenny Perry

He showed up, which is a good start.  Now we can see how the number one player on the Tour's Money List (other than Tiger Woods) can fare against the world's best.

Well, that is it.  The next four days will tell whether I have pulled a rabbit out of my hat with any of the picks, or whether I have once again stuck my foot in my mouth with my bold predictions.

Enjoy the final major of the year!