Rookies in the NBA generally don't make huge splashes in their first year, regardless of their talent level.
Some are stuck with the wrong team, or suffer an injury (a la Greg Oden), and don't shine like some expect.
But then there are the guys who live up to expectations and become major contributors to their organizations earlier than expected.
These are just three of the rookies who made some nice impacts on their respective teams in 2007:
Kevin Durant (pick #2), G/F, Seattle Supersonics (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Key Stats: 20.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG
Al Horford (pick #3), F/C, Atlanta Hawks
Key Stats: 10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.9 BPG
Playoff Stats: 12.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.0 BPG
Luis Scola (called over from Europe), F, Houston Rockets
Key Stats: 10.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.3 APG
Playoff Stats: 14.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 APG
The most important thing to note with these guys is that two of them made a significant impact on playoff teams. Without Al Horford, the Hawks probably wouldn't have made the playoffs at all. Both players also upped their respective games during their playoff time, increasing stats in just about every major category.
Notice the one who didn't reach the playoffs (Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant), averaged stellar numbers for a lackluster team. He did exactly what he was supposed to do. Teams don't change overnight, but if Durant can keep that high scoring and up his rebounds, he should help Oklahoma City make a statement with its new team.
So, who from the 2008 class is ready to contribute right away?
Time for the breakdown of my top five rookies most likely to make an immediate impact this year:
5. Russel Westbrook (pick #4), G, Oklahoma City Thunder
Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson are the only men who stand in the way of Westbrook and a great rookie season.
Assuming he beats out Watson and Ridnour for the majority of the minutes (probably between 20-25 since he can play both guard spots), with Kevin Durant on the wing, Westbrook will have plenty of opportunities for assists.
When he gets time at the point, expect him to rack up 6-7 dimes easily. And when he plays the shooting guard spot, look for him to show us some more of those dunks he showed in the NCAA Tournament this past year.
4. Kevin Love (pick #5), F, Minnesota Timberwolves (traded from Memphis)
I'm not sold on whether or not Love is NBA-ready, but he'll get every chance to prove me wrong in Minnesota.
In Summer League, Love showed he's still got some work to do to increase his college three-point range to NBA three-point range, going 0-for-7.
But, he certainly proved he can bang the boards, leading all Summer-Leaguers with 13.5 RPG, and his 18.0 PPG were also pretty impressive, even if it was against Summer League players.
If Love can bring his post presence to Minnesota, he'll be beloved (no pun intended) by fans in an instant.
Like I said, I'm not sold on him as an NBA player, but that's just me.
Prove me wrong, Kevin!
3. Brook Lopez (pick #10), C, New Jersey Nets
With Nenad Kristic now sporting a Dynamo Moscow jersey, the Nets will have no choice but to play Brook Lopez more than they would like.
I think the youngster will step up and surprise some people. Don't be shocked to see him play around 25 minutes per game and average close to Al Horford numbers, about 10-and-10.
2. O.J. Mayo (pick #3), G, Memphis Grizzlies (traded from Minnesota)
Mayo is an immense talent. He's been NBA-ready since high school, and now he's finally here.
With Mike Conley already on board, Mayo won't be forced to play the point in Memphis, like he would have been in Minnesota, so he can focus on what he does best: pure scoring.
Mayo is a scorer in every sense of the word.
Last year at USC, he averaged 20.7 PPG. His dunks in the Summer League have proven he can take it to the hole, but Mayo also shot 41% from beyond the arc while playing for the Trojans last year, and, unlike Kevin Love, kept that impressive three-point shooting up in Summer League, going 12-for-25 (48%).
He should be just the shot in the arm that Memphis needs to get over the Pau Gasol fire sale they had at the 2007 trade deadline.
1. Michael Beasley (pick #2), F, Miami Heat
I know, I know. It's the easy pick. But there is no denying that Michael Beasley is as NBA-ready as we've seen in a long, long time.
The freshman phenom led the nation in RPG (12.4), was third in PPG (26.5), and sixth in free throws made (201). All that as a freshman.
He also averaged 1.7 BPG and 1.3 SPG. Not too shabby either.
In his Summer League play, Beasley averaged 19.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG, including a 23-point debut against top pick Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls.
Beasley should provide a solid post presence for the Heat and will get plenty of open looks with Dwyane Wade healthy and drawing consistent double-teams.
In the Heat's smaller lineup, Beasley will even get some playing time at center with he, Udonis Haslem, and Shawn Marion manning the frontcourt, while in the regular lineup, Haslem should be pushed to the bench.
Beasley will probably average close to 30 minutes per game due to his versatility and pure, undeniable talent. He's the early leader for rookie of the year.
There's my take on these rookies. Others may have a noticeable impact on their teams, but not like these guys should, in my opinion.
* Please note that Greg Oden wasn't in my list, since even though he is technically eligible to win rookie of the year, I consider him a sophomore. *
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2 months ago
I don't think Russell Westbrook will average 6-7 assists "easily" as you said. T.J. Ford, a great passing point guard, was the only player in the NBA to average six or more assists in 20-25 minutes per game of play, like you expect Westbrook to earn. Also, Westbrook isn't a true point guard, and will take time to adjust to the position. 4 or 5 assists would be a more reasonable expectation, especially since outside of Durant he has few targets to get the ball to. Teammate Earl Watson averaged 6.8 assists per game last year, so Westbrook's numbers will drop due to Watson's impact, and he will probably split playing time with Watson, as I expect Watson to both start and earn more minutes at the point (though due to Westbrook's versatility, the team could afford to go small with a Watson-Westbrook-Durant-Green-[insert an Oklahoma big here]). Lastly, Westbrook played two years in UCLA, has little point guard experience, and isn't an NBA ready prospect, at least not a top-five NBA ready prospect from this draft. I see him averaging the 20-25 minutes like you pointed out, though with far lower statistics. 8/4 along with 1-2 steals is a reasonable expectation for him.
10/10 is way to much to expect from Brook Lopez; at least the rebounding part. Lopez will likely average more around 6 or 7 rebounds, as he'll battle for playing time with Sean Williams and Josh Boone at center. 12/7 would be a very solid contribution from him, I expect something more along the lines of 10/6.
A couple of players that I'm a little surprised to see off of your list include Derrick Rose and Eric Gordon. Rose will likely start at the point right away, and will get about 5 assists to his talented group of perimeter players, he should be a factor rebounding at the guard position right away due to his size; I see him grabbing 2-3 in his first year, about 4 could be expected in his prime. As for scoring, he'll probably get anywhere from 10-15 ppg, I don't expect too much from him in this area of his game, but he'll be a factor scoring on the drive, and his overall skill level will make him a consistent threat to drop double figures every night. 13/5/2.5 are my expectations for the coming season. As for Gordon, I think he will average 12-16 ppg for the Clippers. He'll likely come off the bench for at least the start of the season, but his scoring ability could make him the Ben Gordon of this year's class, and should get him some 6th Man of the Year votes. His offensive game is very developed, and as a result I see him providing a lot of points off the bench.
from 2 months ago
I never said Westbrook would AVERAGE 6-7 dimes. I said "When he gets time at the point, expect him to rack up 6-7 dimes easily." Because when he gets major minutes at the point, that is very easily doable. There is no way he averages those numbers, but he'll get them easily when Oklahoma City gives him the extended playing time at the point in certain games.
Brook Lopez grabbing 10 rebounds a game doesn't seem out of the question to me. I think Sean Williams may steal some boards from him, but you have to remember that Josh Boone only played center last year because the Nets had no one else to man the 5-spot. Boone is a natural power forward, and will be playing alongside Lopez alot, not stealing his minutes.
Derrick Rose I thought about but Chicago is just too unpredictable. With the glutton of guards they have (Hinrich, Gordon, Sefalosha, Hughes) where does Rose fit in? If Hinrich is still on the team, then I don't see Rose starting from day one like you said. Point guard is the toughest position to transition to the NBA level. Although Hinrich being traded is still a very real possibility.
Eric Gordon I thought about also, but with Cuttino Mobley the starter and Ricky Davis likely to be the sixth man, I can't see Gordon putting up Ben Gordon-like numbers his rookie year. Don't get me wrong, he'll be a great player, just not right away.
2 months ago
I really do like Eric Gordon. Mobley will back him up, and Davis can play the three. I think OJ Mayo will be the best of them all; he's been hyped for so long. And don't forget about Jerryd Bayless, I was shocked to see him slip to 11.
from 2 months ago
I doubt Gordon will start his rookie year. Davis won't start at the three because Al Thornton will be there with Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman playing the four and five, respectively.
Like I said, I believe Davis will be the sixth man and Gordon will probably be after him in line for playing time.
Jerryd Bayless is a guy I really like, but he'll probably be splitting time with Steve Blake, since point guard is very tough to adjust to at the pro level. Remember, guys like Deron Williams and Chris Paul didn't even start their rookie years.
2 months ago
Brook Lopez is not an Al Horford type of player. The Nets have worked really hard with Brook on his rebounding, but he won't put up 10 a game. Getting all the time at the four and the five at Stanford, Brook only put up eight boards a game. Sean Williams will end up being a career backup if his fouling problems aren't fixed so he won't be taking minutes from Brook. Don't get me wrong, I am high on Brook Lopez and I think he will be a successful NBA big man, but not immediattely. He is a scorer so I would expect about 14 and 6 in his rookie year. Good read, keep it coming.
2 months ago
Brook Lopez will struggle.
He lacks the intensity it takes to compete with the best players in the league.
2 months ago
Greg:
You're right, but I think Gordon will get 30 minutes a game. Mobley is old, he should back up. Thorton can start at SF, but Marcus Camby is old, and Thorton may steal 10 minutes at the PF. Ricky Davis can back up the 3, and the Clippers will try to develop Gordon quickly.
Is Tim Thomas still there?
As for the Blazers, I agree.
from 2 months ago
I really hope you're right. And I'm not being sarcastic or anything. I really hope that the Clippers try to use Gordon alot this year, because he is an immense talent and I have never liked Cuttino Mobley, but L.A. seems to like him (he somehow got 35.1 minutes per game last year!), and I don't know why.
And unfortunately, yes. Tim Thomas is still an L.A. Clipper.
12 days ago
Miami is going to kill everyone this year!
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