Fantasy Pick'Em: 2010 Emory Healthcare 500

The Atlanta Motor Speedway will play host to the Sprint Cup Series this weekend, putting on the series’ Labor Day weekend event for the second time. The Emory Healthcare 500 will be the track’s lone event in 2011, similar to the one race a year the series now runs at Darlington.

The penultimate event in the Race to the Chase, drivers like Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin are going to be going all in to try and take a playoff spot away from vulnerable drivers like Clint Bowyer. Their cunning will likely have a great affect on the finishing order, and should affect your fantasy picks as well.

So who’s going to be worth a look at Atlanta?

I’m going to make this interesting and say that Carl Edwards breaks his winless streak this weekend. (How many times have I picked Carl this year with no luck?) He’s won one in four at Atlanta, and in a way, team owner Jack Roush’s tragic plane accident has been the best thing to happen to that team - they’ve been stepping up their game in a way unlike they’ve been running all season. We all know he’s overdue.

As for a sleeper pick, look out for A.J. Allmendinger. He’s been unassumingly consistent at Atlanta, never finishing outside the top 20 at the track in five starts. His best finish, a sixth place, came this spring. Allmendinger’s average finish of 14.6 is sixth best of all active drivers.

Three more, for those who need them:

Jimmie Johnson’s average finish at Atlanta, a 10.2, tops all other drivers. He’s won one in six at the Georgia track, with nine top five finishes in 18 starts. He’s led laps in six of the past eight Atlanta events, including both 2007 races, a year where he swept the two Cup events at the track.

Jeff Gordon has four wins and 23 top-10s in 36 career Atlanta starts, equivalent to a top-five season (at least) in NASCAR’s top level these days. It’s been nearly seven years since his last Atlanta win, but consistency - no finishes outside the top 20 in his past 10 Atlanta events - suggests he knows what it takes to deliver a strong finish this weekend.

Finally, Jamie McMurray has never been a strong Atlanta driver - 16 starts with only four top-10s and no finish better than sixth - but the momentum coming off a great Bristol finish may have him making a surprise run at the Chase. Remember Jeremy Mayfield’s surprise ascent in 2004? Jamie Mac might be able to duplicate the feat if he can pull it together the next two weeks.