NFL

What Would Wall Street Do: Memo To Jaguars: Indy Is Not a Mystical Ninja

Matt MoscardiAnalyst IDecember 4, 2007
Results for Week 13
Spread: GB +7 (-110) v. DAL - $8.99 wins $0.00
Spread: JAC +6.5 (-110) v. IND - $11.83 wins $22.58
Spread: CLE +1 (-115) v. ARI - $10.97 wins $0.00
Spread: NYG -1.5 (-115) v. CHI - $8.71 wins $16.28
Spread: BAL +20.5 (-110) v. NE - $9.50 wins $18.14
14.00%
Results for Week 13
Bet Totals: $50.00
Potential Winnings: $44.67
Payouts: $57.00
Actual Profit: $7.00
%s: Week 13

Not much of a profit, but greater than zero is better than the alternative!

I'm hoping this week's games are a little better—I've started working with Mark Myers of ChanceBot.com, who's game impact algorithms may be useful in picking moneyline games. We haven't run the correlations yet, but it may lead to something. Also, I've been reading a lot of Brian Burke's NFL Stats, which is really impressive stuff. I may try to incorporate his stuff into another module for Moneyline picking—you can't argue with his overall results.

The Good

Jacksonville, the NY Giants, and Baltimore

Wha? Baltimore?

Despite almost having an aneurysm waiting for the real Patriots to show up, Baltimore's defense looked GOOD. This is why I am talking to Mark Myers—the Pats are en route to a perfect season (I happen to be pessimistic about their chances), but along the way, the games have a pretty low impact on their playoff picture. As long as they are unbeaten, EVERY team they play will bring their A game, since every game is pretty inconsequential. Now it's about pride.

Last night, Kyle Boller looked like Dan Marino—right up until when Kyle Boller showed up with eight minutes to go and threw a terrible pick to James Sanders. The same thing happened with the Eagles—A.J. Feeley looked amazing, picking apart the Pats, right up until he started playing like A.J. Feeley with 10 minutes left to go.

This is the Pats' strength. They are not afraid to lose the entire game and win on the scoreboard.

Next week, I expect the exact opposite to happen. The Pats take on Pittsburgh, a team with a long history of annoying the crap out of New England players and fans. While it's hard to be in the locker room, amping yourself up for your "big game" against the terrible terrible Ravens, it will NOT be hard to want to knock the smug smile off of Big Ben's "I'm overrated" face.

Jacksonville needs to remember that the Colts are just a football team.

They are not made of kryptonite. They are not mystical ninjas from Wudan mountain.

Jack Del Rio has yet to get the memo about the weakness in the Death Star. David Garrard was almost perfect (almost), they ran the ball well, and they held the ball longer, and still fell just short.

Short enough to cover.

Jacksonville vs. Indy is like printing money—the spread is always big, the game is always close, and Indy always wins.

The Giants remembered that they want to go to the playoffs this week. Even if the Giants won the Super Bowl, I still think Tom Coughlin should be fired. I have to run the numbers, but I think there's a one-to-one correlation between morons and losing.

Norv, Herm, Tom...you guys have a corner on the market.

The Bad

Cleveland, GB, Officials

Worst. Officiating. Ever.

The crew that ran the Green Bay/Dallas game were the same bunch of numskulls that oversaw the Pats/Colts game. Does anyone remember the multiple PI calls against Hobbs and Randy Moss? Yeah. Terrible.

It's time for pass interference—often a 30+ yard penalty that results in points—to be reviewable. It's time, NFL. It's time.

I'm back up for the year, and I feel good going into next week! Woot!

Gain/Loss:
Box Results - through Week 13
Initial $s: $139.16
Bet Totals: $563.91
Potential Winnings: $987.66
Payouts: $575.46
Actual Profit: $11.55
8.30%

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