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NASCAR: Tracking The Race to The Chase With Two Races To Go

BRISTOL, TN - AUGUST 20:  Kurt Busch, driver of the #2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge, stands on the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 20, 2010 in Bristol, Tennessee.  (Photo by Jason Smith/Getty Images)
Jason Smith/Getty Images
Ashley McCubbinAnalyst IAugust 24, 2010

Following Bristol, the Chase is looking towards being set in stone with the top 12 drivers.

 

Currently, the battle looks as follows:

 

Pos

Name

Total Points

Points Separation

8.

No. 17 Matt Kenseth

3095

+175

9.

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson

3077

+157

10.

No. 2 Kurt Busch

3073

+153

11.

No. 16 Greg Biffle

3055

+135

12.

No. 33 Clint Bowyer

2920

+100

13.

No. 1 Jamie McMurray

2820

-100

14.

No. 5 Mark Martin

2819

-101

15.

No. 39 Ryan Newman

2802

-118

16.

No. 9 Kasey Kahne

2784

-136

17.

No. 00 David Reuitmann

2765

-155

18.

No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

2750

-170

19.

No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya

2728

-192

20.

No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.

2660

-260

 

All the drivers can still either fall out or jump in as in two races, a 360 point swing is possible. So who will be in and who will be out?

 

A way to predict could be based off of past track performance, as shown through average finish.

 

Pos

Name

Avg. Finish Atlanta

Avg. Finish Richmond

10.

No. 2 Kurt Busch

18.7

17.8

11.

No. 16 Greg Biffle

15

16

12.

No. 33 Clint Bowyer

16.4

10.2

13.

No. 1 Jamie McMurray

20.9

25.2

14.

No. 5 Mark Martin

17.3

12

15.

No. 39 Ryan Newman

17.9

11.4

16.

No. 9 Kasey Kahne

16

18.2

17.

No. 00 David Reuitmann

27.3

19.4

18.

No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

12

13.2

19.

No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya

18.3

23.4

20.

No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.

24.6

23.7

 

Based upon this, you can analyze who could possible get the most points.

 

Following Atlanta, Busch (+144) and Biffle (+135) would still be 10th and 11th, above Bowyer, who’d sit 12th. Behind him, Martin would be 13th, now 104 behind. After him, it’d go McMurray (-115), Newman (-139), Kahne (-136), and Earnhardt Jr. (-158). Montoya and Truex, meanwhile, would now be locked out.

 

Following Richmond, Busch (+230), Biffle (+230), and Bowyer (+110) would make the Chase. Behind Bowyer, it’d be Martin (-110), Newman (-127), McMurray (-160), Kahne (-160), and Earnhardt Jr. (-167).

 

This is obviously a guess as to what could happen as sometimes people can perform above average (win) or below (wreck) so anything and everything can happen. That is why we watch and what makes us fans.

 

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