Why I'll Still Be Drafting Running Back Heavy On Draft Day

"For the first time in [a] decade ... it's best player available."

—ESPN's Talented Mr. Roto, Matthew Berry

I respectfully disagree. Some may have read my article three weeks ago as to why you shouldn't worry about Running Back By Committees.

Sure, you can look at last year's point totals and say to yourself, "Wide receivers and quarterbacks are the new running backs!" But that's not the case.

Yet.

I have for you three tables showing statistics of quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs; this first one shows the points per game (PPG) of the top-10 running backs and top-20 running backs for the past five years.

PPG of RBs

Year	Top 10	Top 20
2007	14.3	12.3
2006	17.3	14.3
2005	16.8	13.8
2004	16.1	14.0
2003	17.9	14.7

Do you see a trend here? Anything? Even a two-year stretch that shows running backs are on the decline?

Neither do I. All I see is one anomalous year, last year.

In fact, running back value was improving from 2004-06 with the top-10 running backs' PPGs increasing by more than a point in that two year stretch.

Here is the second table, showing the same statistics of wide receivers.

PPG of WRs

Year	Top 10	Top 20
2007	13.0	11.2
2006	11.4	10.4
2005	12.2	10.7
2004	12.5	11.3
2003	12.2	10.7

I think I see a trend here. Wide receivers were falling from 2004-06—or the same time running backs were improving. Right now you're thinking, "Wait, so wide receivers were on the decline and running backs were improving from 2004-06. Surely quarterbacks had to be on the decline as well, right?"

In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend.

PPG of QBs

Year	Top 10	Top 20
2007	17.0	14.2
2006	15.2	13.4
2005	14.6	13.1
2004	17.5	15.0
2003	15.4	13.5

As many of you all may remember, 2004 was the year of the quarterback with Daunte Culpepper, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb all putting up spectacular numbers, and Trent Green putting up 4,500 passing yards as well.

But that's aside the point.

From 2001 ('01 and '02 not shown) through 2006, there were no two years when the quarterback stats made the same change in value as it had the year before—or in other words, the stats went up, down, up, down, up, in those five years. That changed last year, when the PPG of quarterbacks rose, as it did from '05 to '06.

Does that mean there's a trend?

Hardly. If you graph the Top 10 quarterbacks data above, you get this:

Not exactly the definition of trend...

The stats show that prior to this year wide receivers were dropping in value, running backs were increasing in value, and quarterbacks were unpredictable.

So while the rest of your league looks at last year's abnormal stats and proclaims Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens as first-round draft picks, you'll be the one going running back/running back in the first two rounds and be on your way to fantasy glory.