Let's face it: Baseball is a game of numbers, unlike no other sport.
I know they keep statistics in other sports, but no stats are as recognizable and perhaps as well understood as baseball stats.
But wait—that last part about being understood—is that really true? I mean, does the average, casual fan and writer truly understand which stats matter and which ones tell an incomplete story? And, in some cases, a complete falsehood?
Well, judge for yourself.
Let's run through some common stats that have been used to indicate the performance of baseball players for many years. As you go along, admit to yourself if you truly understood what each one represented, or are you one of the fans that continue to base performance on lies and incomplete truth?
First of all, let's tackle Runs Batted In, or RBI. How many us have been impressed by gaudy RBI totals over 100, the benchmark of a successful slugging season? Well, we would be wrong.
All RBI does is measure how well the top of the order in your lineup did in terms of getting on base. What I mean by this is that since RBI doesn't factor in number of opportunities, one guy can drive in 100 but maybe had 175 chances during the season, while another player "only" drives in 80 but had only 100 opportunities.
Now, who did the better job of driving in runs in this example? Yet who will get the props?
You see, if the top of the order fails to get on base, the three, four, and five hitters will have fewer chances to drive in runs, and thus, will end up with fewer RBI, through no fault of their own.
Hey, just because a player gets a ton of opportunities and cashes in on some of them doesn't make him a great clutch hitter. If there even is such a thing.
Now, let's move to the defensive side of the ball. For years, Gold Gloves have been awarded to players based on the fewest errors committed at the position. Which is a joke. The more chances a player has, the greater the probability he will commit an error.
So, you get players being rewarded for having limited range but committing fewer errors. Plus, errors are subjective and prone to the whims of the local scorer, who determines what is an error and what is not.
So, we've discussed two useless stats for position players, but what about pitchers? Well, how about wins? Yes, the very stat that most writers use to determine the Cy Young award winner every year is useless in determining how well someone has pitched.
Listen, most pitchers can pitch five innings and get a win when their team scores 10 runs, that's a no-brainer. But a pitcher needs to bring his "A" game when the offense contributes little or no run support. It's this discrepancy that makes a pitcher's won-loss record useless. Look to ERA instead.
Finally, I'm going to discuss the save. At one time, a save was a valuable way to measure how effective a relief pitcher was performing, because they often went three innings to get that save.
But pitchers who come in and pitch one inning, or fewer, to protect a lead of one and sometimes more runs aren't proving anything to me.
18 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Kevin Luchansky 11 months ago
excellent article. You pointed out some great things.
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
Thanks Kevin.
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Sam Wenk 11 months ago
Bob, this is fantastic work. I agree about the "wins" statistic. Just look at the Cubs game yesterday. Gaudin, pitches 1/3 of an inning, gave up the tying runs, and still was able to get the win.
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
Thanks Sam. I was at the game yesterday and Gaudin is an excellent example of how wins are useless for relivers too, though I hadn't thought of that aspect and was instead focusing on starters. But ti works both ways.
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Peter Laclede 11 months ago
You know, for someone who watches baseball all the time, I have to admit that sometimes it's hard to keep up with the statistics, and how much they really mean. They can be so misleading, but I especially liked what you said about saves and gold gloves.
I had never heard of the secondary average, interesting stuff!
Your articles continue to impress me, Bob.
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
Thanks Peter, glad I was able to provide some value. Are there statistics for that? Ha..
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Michael Taylor 11 months ago
I am so glad that the way numbers in baseball are looked at is changing. The basic stats that you pointed out are virtually useless when truly analyzing a player. They sometimes don't even have to completely do with how the player is performing.
A stat that I like to look at that is not know by the average Joe fan is fielding independent ERA for pitchers. It takes all balls hit into play out of the equation because of the variability that they create from defensive prowess to just plain luck. It looks at strikeouts, walks and HR allowed rate. These are a much better indicator of how a pitcher is throwing.
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Matthew Irby 11 months ago
Bob, amazing article. I consider myself a student of the sabermetrics after reading Bill James book. Yeah if you ever want to burn-up the inside of your brain, read that book. After that Stephen Hawkins should be a breeze.
Great job explaining the formulas and bringing this topic up.
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Matthew Goodman 11 months ago
Did you just read Bill James? This stuff has been known for a couple decades now.
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Alex Geshwind 11 months ago
Yeah but has it been accepted? James is obviously the driving force here however without many other writers and blogers out their supporting him his stuff would not be as widely accepted. In fact, to tell you the truth, James didn't start many of the sabermetrics principles. He was just a good writer who was smart enough to understand them and dedicated enough to handle the ridicule.
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Matthew Goodman 11 months ago
Understood. Most teams use advanced statistics to evaluate talent these days; it's the fans and writers who are lagging behind. Whether or not they use them is pretty much irrelevant.
One example: some minor league teams are now posting hard-hit percentages in the locker room so players who are in slumps can see if they're just being unlucky or actually slumping. The fact that players and managers recognize the relevance of those numbers is much more important than if the average Yankees fan is still stuck in the 1970s.
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
It has not been widely in use or known by the average fan, howver, that's the point I'm trying to make. In fact, even now, I see in chats how fans think RBI means something. All the time. So the article is relevant no matter how long the stuff's been around. And gold gloves and other awards continue to be given to players who aren't deserving, so sportswriters aren't getting it either. The average fan still thinks batting average is important.
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Matthew Goodman 11 months ago
It might be good to label it as a primer on sabermetrics then. Could help. Some defensive metrics could be good.
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Alex Geshwind 11 months ago
Great job here, an excellent article. Im about to post something about improvements that can be made in stats such as OBP, SLG, and OPS and with this currently on the front page it may become easier for people to understand and except what im writing. My pick of the day here.
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
Thanks Alex. As I told Matthew, the "problem" can be easily solved without even getting into the more advanced metrics. And one should understand that there aer issues with some of the advanced metrics, too, so they aren't perfect either.
For example, and feel free to use this if you want, one fault of OPS is that it weighs on-base average and slugging percentage equally, although on-base average correlates better with scoring runs. Magnifying this fault is that the numerical parts of OPS are not themselves typically equal (league-average slugging percentages are usually 75-100 points higher than league-average on-base percentages).
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
Actually, Matthew, I didn't intend it to be a primer on sabermetrics at all. As you know better than I, I've only scratched the surface of what's out there. That's why I didn't include Range Factor, for example. My point was simply to state that the average fan should not use RBI, batting average and won-loss record to determine a player's value. And using OBP and simple ERA to determine a player's value can be done easily w/o even getting into the more advanced sabermetric stuff. Thanks for your comments.
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Matthew Goodman 11 months ago
No problem. I think it's a bit of a losing cause. The average fan will never really care much about determining true value; in the end, they really seem to care mostly about winning and losing. As long as a front office fronts a team that wins, fans tend to care less about the details. I mean, how many Red Sox fans are still bemoaning the loss of Manny? I'd say not many.
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Bob Warja 11 months ago
Good point Matthew. Cubs fans have noticed the team's emphasis on OBP this year, and that's a positive sign. So even though Fukudome has slumped since then, they still think he's the guy who brought that focus to the team. Until this year, Jim Hendry has never been a stat guy so hopefully he's seeing the value of getting on base as an offensive metric at least.
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