Come To Think of It...Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics: Debunking the Myth in MLB

Let's face it: Baseball is a game of numbers, unlike no other sport.

I know they keep statistics in other sports, but no stats are as recognizable and perhaps as well understood as baseball stats. 

But wait—that last part about being understood—is that really true? I mean, does the average, casual fan and writer truly understand which stats matter and which ones tell an incomplete story?  And, in some cases, a complete falsehood?

Well, judge for yourself.

Let's run through some common stats that have been used to indicate the performance of baseball players for many years. As you go along, admit to yourself if you truly understood what each one represented, or are you one of the fans that continue to base performance on lies and incomplete truth?

First of all, let's tackle Runs Batted In, or RBI. How many us have been impressed by gaudy RBI totals over 100, the benchmark of a successful slugging season? Well, we would be wrong.

All RBI does is measure how well the top of the order in your lineup did in terms of getting on base. What I mean by this is that since RBI doesn't factor in number of opportunities, one guy can drive in 100 but maybe had 175 chances during the season, while another player "only" drives in 80 but had only 100 opportunities.

Now, who did  the better job of driving in runs in this example? Yet who will get the props?

You see, if the top of the order fails to get on base, the three, four, and five hitters will have fewer chances to drive in runs, and thus, will end up with fewer RBI, through no fault of their own.

Hey, just because a player gets a ton of opportunities and cashes in on some of them doesn't make him a great clutch hitter. If there even is such a thing.

Now, let's move to the defensive side of the ball. For years, Gold Gloves have been awarded to players based on the fewest errors committed at the position. Which is a joke. The more chances a player has, the greater the probability he will commit an error.

So, you get players being rewarded for having limited range but committing fewer errors. Plus, errors are subjective and prone to the whims of the local scorer, who determines what is an error and what is not.

So, we've discussed two useless stats for position players, but what about pitchers? Well, how about wins? Yes, the very stat that most writers use to determine the Cy Young award winner every year is useless in determining how well someone has pitched.

Listen, most pitchers can pitch five innings and get a win when their team scores 10 runs, that's a no-brainer. But a pitcher needs to bring his "A" game when the offense contributes little or no run support. It's this discrepancy that makes a pitcher's won-loss record useless. Look to ERA instead.

Finally, I'm going to discuss the save. At one time, a save was a valuable way to measure how effective a relief pitcher was performing, because they often went three innings to get that save.

But pitchers who come in and pitch one inning, or fewer, to protect a lead of one and sometimes more runs aren't proving anything to me.

The rule is, if a pitcher goes 3 innings and the lead is intact, he gets a save. But there is no limit to the amount of innings you need to go as long as he comes into a game where the tying run is on deck.

So, if a guy comes into the ninth innings, two outs, the team leading 8-5 and a runner on first, he gets a save. That is why guys like Joe Borowski compile tons of saves with an ERA of almost 6.00 every year.

So What To Do?

The best indicator of offensive performance in baseball is on-base percentage, or OBP. While batting average is of limited value in determining offensive performance, OBP measure the most important contributor to scoring runs in a baseball game: getting on base.

A player who hits .280 with a .320 OBP is not a good hitter. But a player who hits .260 with an OBP of .375 is helping his team much more, as he is on base almost 38 percent of the time versus only 32 percent. Getting runners on base is what it's all about. This creates scoring opportunities.

Statistics used by sabermatricians today stay away from the subjective and focus on objectivity. Thus, they are better indicators of player value. 

Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research. It was coined by Bill James, who was among its first proponents and has long been its most prominent and public advocate.

A quick look:

Some of the more mainstream stats include OPS (on-base plus slugging) as well as WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched).

Another useful stat is value over replacement player (or VORP), that demonstrates how much a hitter contributes offensively or how much a pitcher contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious "replacement player," who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter.

Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources (extra-base hits, walks, and net bases gained through stolen bases) to at bats.

The formula is:

SecA = TB - H + BB + SB - CS / AB                     

where

• TB = Total bases
• H = Hits
• BB = bases on balls
• SB = Stolen bases
• CS = Caught stealing
• AB = At bats

A secondary average of .500 is considered outstanding, while anything lower than .200 is very poor.

There are a host of other statistics in use today that do a better job of measuring performance than the stats many of us have grown up with. Come to think of it, change can be a good thing sometimes.