Why Rashard Mendenhall is Not a NFL Fantasy Football First Round Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Rashard Mendenhall currently has an Average Draft Pick (ADP) of 10.5, according to Mock Draft Central.  That makes him the eighth running back coming off the board, on average.

He’s coming off the board before names like:

Larry Fitzgerald
DeAngelo Williams
Reggie Wayne

In fact, I have him ranked 11th among running backs (click here to view my rankings).  That doesn’t even factor in other positions, so I probably wouldn’t take him until the middle of the second round.  There’s no way I’m taking him in the first.

Why?  Let’s take a look.

We are not talking about a running back who had a monster 2009 campaign.  Granted, he started just 12 games, but still, in this era, 1,108 yards just isn’t as impressive as it once was.  In fact, it ranked him just 14th in the league.  Yes, he did average 4.6 yards/carry, but does doing something once make it a guarantee?

Is it the suspension to Ben Roethlisberger that make people believe the former first round draft pick will continue to develop and put up even better numbers?  Yes, the offense will rely on Mendenhall, but the defense will also be able to key on him a little more as well.  Given the state of the Steelers offensive line, there is reason for concern.

The Steelers did as well as they could, replacing the injured Willie Colon with Flozell Adams, but the line certainly took a hit overall.  Considering they were a fairly under whelming group to begin with, it’s a huge concern.

Yes, Mendenhall did post his numbers behind virtually the same line last season, but Colon was the best player on that line.  His loss will likely be felt more then people expect.

While Mendenhall provides a little something in the passing game (25 catches for 261 yards and 1 TD), does that really swing you in his favor?

His touchdown performance is also a detriment.  Last season he scored seven touchdowns on the ground, tied for 16th in the league.  It’s possible that he scores a few more this season, but it’s no guarantee.

When you put it all together, there is just a lot of risk in taking Mendenhall, more than enough to make him fall outside the first round.  With your first pick you want the cornerstone of your fantasy team.  You want a sure thing.

That just isn’t Mendenhall.

What are your thoughts?  Should Mendenhall be a first round pick?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s 2010 rankings:

Top 25 Quarterbacks
Top 40 Running Backs
Top 60 Wide Receivers
Top 20 Tight Ends
Top 15 Kickers

Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:

Top 5 Rookie RB
Top 5 Rookie QB
Top 5 Rookie WR
Top 3 Rookie TE

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM/FOOTBALL